Transcript Climate Change and Energy - Florida Department of

Climate Change and Energy
National and Regional Perspective
Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.
Energy and Climate Change Coordinator
U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia
July 23, 2009
Global Climate Change
 Some Key Messages:

Human activities have led to large increases
in heat-trapping gases over the past century
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Global average temperature and sea level
have increased, and precipitation patterns
have changed

The global warming of the past 50 years is
due primarily to human-induced increases in
heat-trapping gases
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Human “fingerprints” also have been
identified in many other aspects of the
climate system, including changes in ocean
heat content, precipitation, atmospheric
moisture, and Arctic sea ice

Global temperatures are projected to
continue to rise over this century; by how
much and for how long depends on a
number of factors, including the amount of
heat-trapping gas emissions and how
sensitive the climate is to those emissions
US GCRP, 2009
Climate Change and Energy
An EPA Priority
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Reducing greenhouse gases is a top priority
for Administrator Jackson
Some key actions taken:
 Endangerment Finding
 Mandatory Reporting
 Renewable Fuels Standard
Proposed Endangerment Finding
Current and projected concentrations of the
mix of key greenhouse in the atmosphere
threaten the public health and welfare of
current and future generations
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carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
Proposed Endangerment Finding
“Cause or contribute finding”
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The combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and
HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle
engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations
of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the
threat of climate change
Federal Register notice
4/24/09
Comment period closed
6/23/09
Mandatory Reporting of GHGs
Required by FY08 omnibus
appropriations legislation
Federal Register
Notice 4/10/09
Comment Period
Closed 6/09/09
Residential
5%
Com m ercial
6%
Electricity
Generation
3 4%
Agriculture
7%
Industry
1 9%
Transportation
2 8%
http://epa.gov/climatechange/
Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007
Covered Chemicals
 Anthropogenic GHG emissions covered under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and other fluorinated gases
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carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)
perfluorocarbons (PFC)
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
hydrofluorinated ethers (HFE)
 Expressed in metric tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent (mtCO2e)
Who Reports?
 Primarily facility, with limited exceptions (e.g., fuel
importers, vehicle and engine manufacturers)
Sector
Reporters
Electricity Generation
Power plants
Transportation
Vehicle and Engine Manufacturers
Industrial
All large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries:
Metals
Minerals
Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead
Cement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical
Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash,
Phosphoric Acid, Electronics, Titanium Dioxide
Oil and Gas
Components of oil and gas systems, Underground coal mining
Other
Landfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing
Agriculture
Manure Management
Upstream Suppliers*
Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution
Companies, Coal Mines, Importers/Exporters, Industrial Gases (e.g.,
HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2)
*Some upstream suppliers will also be reporting their direct emissions (e.g., refineries)
Thresholds, Methods, and Frequency
 Threshold
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Capacity-based threshold, where appropriate and feasible;
Emissions-based threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CO2e/yr for
other sources
 Methods
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Direct measurement, where available, and facility-specific
calculation for other sources
EPA direct reporting system for fuel quantity and quality
information
 Frequency
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Annually for New Reporters (facilities reporting quarterly for
existing mandatory programs continue quarterly reports)
 First reports submitted to EPA March 31, 2011 for CY2010
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Engine manufacturers report for model year 2011
Proposed Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)
Proposed revision to current RFS (RFS1) as
required by the Energy Independence and
Security Act (EISA)
Significant increase in
renewables to displace
petroleum consumption
Lifecycle analysis
for GHGs
www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS
Volume Changes Over Time
40
Advanced Biofuel: Unspecified
Advanced Biofuel: Biomass-Based Diesel
35
Advanced Biofuel: Cellulosic Biofuel
Conventional Biofuel
25
20
15
10
5
Year
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
0
20
09
Billion Gallons
30
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Thresholds
 Required GHG reduction
thresholds for the various
categories of fuels
Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA
(percent reduction from 2005 baseline)
 Evaluated over the full
lifecycle
 Compared to the lifecycle
emissions of 2005
petroleum baseline fuels
Renewable fuela
Advanced biofuel
20%
*50%
Biomass-based
diesel
50%
Cellulosic biofuel
60%
a The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable
fuel from new facilities that commenced
construction after December 19, 2007.
* EPA is proposing to exercise the 10% adjustment
allowance provided for in EISA for the advanced
biofuels threshold to as low as 40%
Preliminary Emissions Impacts
Pollutant
Change in total U.S. inventory1 in 2022 in
comparison to RFS1 mandate
NOx
2.5 to 3.0%
HC
0.6%
PM10
1.0%
PM2.5
0.3%
CO
-3.1 to -5.8%
Ethanol
29 to 33%
Acetaldehyde
28 to 38%
Benzene
-1.5 to -3.5%
GHG
-150 to -160 million tons per year on average (over
30 to 100 years respectively)
1
Includes all upstream and downstream emissions
What about Region 4?
Some key facts about Region 4….
 Home to 20% of the population (with a large EJ
component)
 We generated about 24% of electricity in U.S. (burning coal
is a primary fuel source) in 2007
 Responsible for about 24% of U.S. CO2 emissions
(from power production) in 2007
Energy Information Administration
Federal Highways Administration
U.S. Census Bureau
VMT (millions)
 We use more fuel and
drive more miles than any
other Region
VMT by region
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1950
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
R8
R9
R10
2007 CO2 Emission from Power Generation in R4 States
140,000,000
20%
120,000,000
Tons
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
AL
FL
GA
Source: Energy Information Administration
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
2007 Electricity Generation (Electric Power Industry) in R4 States
250,000,000
23%
Megawatts
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
AL
FL
GA
Source: Energy Information Administration
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
Energy Efficiency
 Reduce energy use in buildings
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Energy Star
Green Buildings
 Connection to water
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WaterSense
Energy efficient infrastructure
 Connection to materials management
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WasteWise
 Green remediation opportunities
 Promote more fuel efficient
vehicles/fuels, better transit options,
and smart planning and growth
BioEnergy
Southeast could dominate this industry
Some activities to promote bioenergy
production and use in the SE
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Southeastern Diesel
Collaborative
Biodiesel production in
communities and technical
training for schools
Agriculture and other
Waste-to-Energy projects
Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts
 Many concerns for the
Southeast….
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Most coastline in the lower 48
states
Large at-risk population
Prone to frequent natural
disasters
Significant forestry, agriculture,
infrastructure, and ecosystem
resources
 Adaptation planning
underway and
transportation will be an
important consideration
Ocean surface temperature during the peak hurricane season, August
through October, in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes.
Higher sea surface temperatures in this region of the ocean have been
associated with more intense hurricanes. As ocean temperatures
continue to increase in the future, it is likely that hurricane rainfall and
wind speeds will increase in response to human-caused warming.
US GCRP, 2009
What about air quality?
Potential impact of climate
change on:
Ozone
 Particulate
matter
 Toxics
 Pollen
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Courtesy of Sustaining the Environment and
Resources for Canadians
Questions?
Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.
Energy and Climate Change Coordinator
U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia
404-562-9065
[email protected]
www.epa.gov/CLIMATECHANGE
www.epa.gov/CLEANENERGY
www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS