Transcript Climate Change Copenhagen

ASHRAE CTTC
Issues Update
Tom Werkema
June, 2010
Climate International
Climate Change
2010
• “Copenhagen Accord” agreed
– 155 countries voluntarily committed = 85.05% of global emissions
– $30b financing over 3 years
• Somewhat unclear how “fund” will be managed
• US contribute 1/3rd
– Agreement on forests, reforestation
• 2010: 5 meetings plus COP/MOP (Mexico)
– Meetings early June in Bonn, Germany
• HFCs
– [“Urges Parties, without prejudice to the scope of the Convention and its related
instruments, to pursue, under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer, the adoption of appropriate measures to progressively reduce
the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons”, ]
4
Climate US
EPA Sector Emissions Profile 1990-2008
(million metric tons CO2e)
Direct
Emissions
1990
Residential
339.4
343.0
Commercial
216.7
Industrial
Transportatio
n
2008
Indirect
Emissions
1990
+1.0%
Residential
587.7
834.1
+41.9%
219.7
+1.4%
Commercial
533.2
817.9
+53.4%
844.5
819.8
-2.9%
Industrial
680.6
685.3
+.6%
1,485.8
1,785.3
+20.2%
3.0
4.6
+53.3%
Difference
Transportatio
n
2008
Difference
Total CO2e
Emissions
1990
2008
Difference
Residential
927.2
1,177.1
+27.0%
Commercial
749.9
1,037.6
+38.4%
Industrial
1,525.2
1,505.1
-1.3%
Transportation
1,488.8
1,789.9
+20.2%
Electricity
1,804.6
2,342.0
+29.8%
Source: EPA
Industrial Energy Consumers of America
US Climate Change – 2009
emissions
• Total emissions up about 5% since 1990,
preliminary
– KP – 7% decrease
• Average 2008-2012
– Down 2.9% in 2008, 7% down in 2009
The American Power Act -2010
(introduced by Senators Kerry,
Lieberman – no Graham)
• Title I Domestic Clean Energy
Development
– Domestic Nuclear (regulatory efficiency, loan
guarantees, spent fuel)
– Offshore Oil and Gas (States may block up to
75 miles)
– Coal (capture and sequestration)
– Renewables
– Transportation (electric vehicles)
The American Power Act -2010
• Title II – Global Warming Pollution
Reduction
– Amends Clean Air Act
– Allowance Program(s)
– Fast Mitigation
• HFCs – 15% of baseline by 2032
• Black Carbon, International measures
– GHG Market Regulation
The American Power Act -2010
• Title III – Consumer Protection
– Allowances to local distribution companies
– Natural gas
– Consumer Relief – up to 250% of poverty level,
Universal refund
• Title IV – Job Protection and Growth
– Industrial emissions reductions support
– Clean Energy jobs
– Grants for clean cars, agriculture, new technology
The American Power Act -2010
• Title V – International Climate Change
• Title VI – Community Protection from
Climate Change
• Title VII – Budgetary Impacts
Kerry-Lieberman Bill: Carbon Pricing Effect on
Average Wellhead Price of Natural Gas
Price Ceiling
Price Floor
EIA Forecasted Price
13.00
$/thousand cubic feet
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Source: EIA, IECA
35
20
33
20
31
20
29
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
20
13
3.00
Industrial Energy Consumers of America
Calculate Your Cost Increase
CO2 Allowance Price
$40
$50
$75
$100
.35
.44
.67
.89
2.19
2.74
4.10
5.47
Short Ton
Bituminous Coal
89.44
111.80
167.70
223.60
Sub-bituminous
Coal
67.40
84.25
126.38
168.50
69.88
87.35
131.03
174.70
Gasoline/gallon
Natural Gas/MCF
Anthracite Coal
13
Source: EIA
Industrial Energy Consumers of America
US EPA
• Published “endangerment” Final Rule
– Potentially affects many major NA Plants, using Clean Air Act
standards (NSR, PSD, TRI, etc.) to regulate emissions
– 25,000 MT CO2e, not 250 MT hazardous pollutant
– 16 Lawsuits filed from 25+ Parties, 3 from States, none by ENGOs
– 18 States support, 11 States against
– EPA will not regulate stationary sources until 2011
• Tayloring rule published
– 75,000 MT CO2e/year stationary sources in 2011
– Add currently non-permitted 100,000 MT CO2e/year July, 2011
• GHG Reporting Rule Final –
– Still negotiating on some in-process HFC flows
– Monitoring plans must be on file by March 31, 2010
– Reports due first quarter 2011, for 2010 data
• Opened comment period on Clean Water Act impact from
GHG emissions
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Europe
• Review of Fgas Regulation 842/2006
– Commission proposal by 4/7/2011
– Consultant Technical Study underway including on HFO
availability
– Expected Considerations
• Policy scenarios
• International consumption reduction arrangement (&
scenarios)
• Further use prohibitions
– Expected Outcomes
• Revised regulation: 2013/14 implementation, earliest July
2013
• Further HFC bans
– Foam blowing, domestic refrigeration???
• Overall phase-down and quota system with 30% reduction15by
2020
State/Regional Activity
ASHRAE Issue Update
Winter, 2009
• RGGI – Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative
– Northeastern States
– Utilities only
– Continue quarterly auctions
• WCI – Western Climate Initiative
– Several states have w/d
– Oregon, California still committed
Assembly Bill 32: The California Global
Warming Solutions Act of 2006
•September 2006:
“The Time for
Action is Now!”
•Sets in statute
2020 emission limit
at 1990 level
•Now up for
November
Referendum vote
Montreal Protocol
International
Montreal Protocol
• HFC Amendment – 2009 – proposed by Canada, US,
Mexico
– Blocked by China/India
• China strongest
– Ultimately, no decision
– 2010 – discussions mid year in Geneva, November-Kampala
• US reintroduced early May, supported by Canada, Mexico
• Micronesia also introduced
• Expect EU to not object
• Expect China/India to object
• HFC Industry fundamentally supports
• 2014 earliest implementation
20
Miscellaneous
• First HCFC-22 smuggling case completed
–Over 400,000 Kgs
–30 month prison term, $1.3 M penalty
–Several other cases pending
• Second sentence in April
– related to above, but further down the commerce
chain
–100,000 Kgs
–36 month prison term, fine