Transcript Climate Change–What Are They Thinking?

Dayton, Ohio
ASHRAE Chapter
Climate Change
What Are They Thinking?
Tom Werkema
Distinguished Lecturer
October 20, 2009
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Carbon Counting
Carbon Counting Tools
 Calculator
Types:
– Personal carbon footprint
– Carbon emissions from buildings
– Carbon calculators with BIM systems
 Elements
– Energy – single largest contributor
Direct
or indirect
– Heating, cooling, lighting, appliances
– Construction
Of
the building
Of the materials used in the building
Transportation of materials to construct
Carbon Counting Tools
 Elements
(continued)
– Water
Both
in and out of the building
– Solid Waste
Includes
decomposition to landfill ghgs
– Transportation
Public
transit
Building occupant material usage
Building Calculators

Operating & Embodied Energy
– The Green Building Energy Suite
– The Athena Institute
 Carbon
numbers for some building sizes/locations
 LCA's for over 400 common building assemblies
 Impact estimator (purchase) – GWP of project
 New, retrofit, major renovations
– Institutional, residential, office, industrial
– Carbon Construction Calculator
 “reduce,
renew, offset”
 Embodied and construction energy calculator
Building Calculators
 Operating
& Embodied Energy (con't)
–Carbon Footprint
Various carbon calculators
Information about
reduction/offsets
–Zero Footprint
Variety of calculators
Carbon Calculators
 Natural
/Therm
gas – average 12.62 lbs CO2
– (0.47 lbs CO2/kWhr)
 Electricity
– 0.97 lbs CO2/kWhr
–Average for total US is 1.363 lbs
CO2/kWhr
–Includes on-site generation
Avg Distribution of Building
Emissions
Construction
8%
Water
4%
Operational
37%
Transportation
44%
Waste
7%
Avg Distribution of Building
Emissions, excluding
transportation
Water
8%
Construction
13%
Waste
13%
Operational
66%
Carbon Calculation Process
1) Define boundary
 2) Measure energy flow across boundary
 3) Define carbon factor for each energy
supply

– EPA Power Profiler, EPA eGRID, NREL Model, CEC/E3
Model

4) Construction – multiple calculators
available
– Need to estimate building life as well

5) Waste
– Some waste generates methane
– recycle?
Carbon Calculation Process
(con’t)
 6)
Water
– pumping/treatment CO2 emissions (embedded
energy)
– 7) Transportation
– Ground, air
– Boundaries
 home versus office?
 Business versus business
Climate Change
Figure 1. Arctic sea
ice extent for
March, 2009, was
15.16 million
square kilometers
(5.85 million
square miles). The
magenta line
shows the 1979 to
2000 median
extent for that
month. The black
cross indicates the
geographic North
Pole. Sea Ice Index
data.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice
extent for September
2009 was 5.36 million
square kilometers (2.07
million square miles),
the third-lowest in the
satellite record. The
magenta line shows the
median ice extent for
September from 1979
to 2000. Sea Ice Index
data. About the data.
—Credit: National
Snow and Ice Data
Center
Figure 5. These images
compare ice age, a proxy for
ice thickness, in 2007, 2008,
2009, and the 1981 to 2000
average. This year saw an
increase in second-year ice (in
blue) over 2008. At the end of
summer 2009, 32 percent of
the ice cover was second-year
ice. Three-year and older ice
were 19 percent of the total
ice cover, the lowest in the
satellite record.
—Credit: National Snow and
Ice Data Center courtesy C.
Fowler and J. Maslanik,
University of Colorado at
Boulder
Figure 3. September ice extent from 1979 to 2009 shows a continued decline.
The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has now increased to 11.2
percent per decade. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Climate Change 2009


5 Meetings plus Copenhagen
Tabled key proposals
–
–
–
–
Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95%
Intellectual Property Rights proposed to be superseded
Dozens of new institutions, funds
Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt,
shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per
capita reductions
– No commitments for developing countries
– Emissions trading
– Sectoral approaches

In 1997 pre-Kyoto had 100 page text
– Reduced to 30 pages in Kyoto Protocol
– Today 400 pages, and increasing

US will only bring back agreement it will ratify
International Trade Issues

US – Secretary Chu
– Carbon tariffs to “level playing field”

China Appeals to Exclude Exports in Climate Deal
– “rich countries buying its products should bear
responsibility for emissions in manufacturing”
– 20% of China’s emissions from exported goods
– Others: logistical nightmare, control over production in
developing countries?

Subject of House hearings in Spring
– Potential tax credits to affected industries


10 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 7
Discussed by EC in 2008, without pursuing today
1990-2006
1990-2006
EU F Gas Regulation
Key sectors – refrigeration, airconditioning, heat pumps, highvoltage switchgear
 Marketing & use bans limited today
 Will be reviewed in 2010 for
changes in 2011
– EC looking at Waxman/MarkeyBoxer/Reid
EU Mobile A/C Directive
 1/1/11
no new model(platform)
MAC fluid > 150 GWP
 1/1/17 no new MAC fluid > 150
GWP
 Auto makers may not introduce
new models in 2011, 12
EU Emissions Trading Scheme

EU Program
– Carbon prices have declined due to economy
– Automakers agreed to reduce new car
emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015
– Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances
free until 2020
 Free
allocation for Energy Intensive Industries
exposed to C leakage
 Rest purchased at auction
Other Developed Countries
Japan: Indicated they would start C & T in October
Australia: Cap and Trade by 2010

Pushed back to 2011
– Includes HFCs in common basket

1100% cost increase will simply pass thru to consumer
Canada
 HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice
lists
 Mandatory reporting in 2005
 Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic
Sweden: tax proposal $43/pound 134a equivalent
Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv
1,600
1,400
Exajoules/Year
1,200
Coal
Gas
Oil
1,000
800
Energy Reduction from Reference
Non-Biomass Renewables Transport
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Buildings
Coal: w/ CCS
Coal: w/o CCS
Industry
Natural Gas: w/ CCS
Natural Gas: w/o CCS
Oil: w/ CCS
Oil: w/o CCS
Nuc
400
Biomass
200
CCS
600
0
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program
(Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy
Montreal Protocol



Mauritius/Micronesia amendment to add HFC to MP, with
HFC only in 2004-6 baseline
EU – wants decision from UNFCCC to mandate reduction
schedule, implemented by MP
US, Canada, Mexico – amendment to MP
– 2004-2006 baseline HCFCs+HFCs GWP basis
– Slightly less stringent than WM thru 2025, 15% residual at
end of schedule
– Developing country 10% reduction 2016, 85% 2043
– MLF funding for HFCs – to be negotiated
– Limits HFC-23 emissions
– Leaves unchanged UNFCCC/KP jurisdiction
– Production for Developing countries allowed, 10% of baseline
– Non Party Imports/Exports banned w/i one year of entry into
force
– Enters into force 1/1/2011 if 20 Parties ratify
US House – American
Climate & Energy
Security Act (ACES)
(essentially same as Senate version)
Voted June 26, 2009
ACES

Passed 219-212
– Need 218 to pass
– 44 D against, 8 R for
 3D’s
considered bill to weak
– 1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate
– Senate using ACES as starting point
 Reid-Boxer
(Clean Energy Jobs & American Power
Act) reduced to 821 pages
 Reid now admitting 2010 discussions
– Obama concurs
ACES
Covers 85% of US emissions
 2005 levels baseline

–
–
–
–

3% below by 2012
17% below by 2020
42% below by 2030
83% below by 2050
Covered Gases – CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs,
PFCs, SF6, NF3,, two HFOs
– Any other anthropogenic gas determined by
EPA
ACES
 “Covered
entities” – 25,000 MT CO2
– Vehicle fleets > 25,000 MT CO2
 Emissions
5 years
allowances vary over first
– 4,627 MMT CO2 in 2012 up to 5,482
MMT CO2 in 2016
– Decreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CO2 in
2050 and thereafter
ACES - Auctions
 15%
each year, proceeds to low
income consumers
 Small quantities also auctioned for:
worker training, adaptation, wildlife
& natural resources
ACES-HFCs

HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act
Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate
(Group II)
– Includes manufactured HFCs, excludes
byproducts

2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP
– 2004-2006 average baseline HFCs + HCFCs
– 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr
thereafter
– 15% of baseline in 2033

370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined
baseline
– 280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline
The American Clean Energy and Security Act
(HR 2454)Waxman Markey Bill
500
450
BAU Initial Estimates
400
450
350
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
250
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
33
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
Total Rights- WM
150
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
13
14
20
20
200
20
12
0
20
MM TCO2 Equiv
Low GWP Shift
300
MM TCO2 Equiv
400
BAU Latest (Arkema)
Estimate
Total Rights- MP Ammend
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Producer Non Auction Rights
HFC Low Demand
Rights needed
Producer Auction Rights
HFC High Demand
to produce/import any HFC Similar to HCFC
Rights not free – auction/fee
Starting basis:
Secondary Pool
Optimistic Phasedown Case
GWP 2004-2006, 60% HCFCs+100% HFCs
Presumes EPA allocates at maximum level allowed in 2012
Senate consideration unknown/on-going
McKinsey & Company
Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.
Economy – July, 2009

Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020
– Capital cost of $520b
– 1.1 Gt CO2 reduction
– 9.1 Quad BTU end use savings


23% of projected demand
Significant barriers exist
– 1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource
– 2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot
approaches
– 3) identify upfront funding resources

$0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years
(~8%↑)
– 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government,
manufacturers, energy consumers
– 5) foster innovation
McKinsey & Company
Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.
Economy – July, 2009
 Energy
Consumption per unit floor
space, since 1980
– ↓ 11% residential
– ↓ 21% commercial
– Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41%
per GDP output
California

2/28/09 – introduced ban on high GWP
– Commercial Refrigeration & AC
– GWP>150, commencing in 2020
– Converted to a study in April

Refrigeration regulation – Dec. 2009
– >2,000 pound systems 2011
– 200-2,000 pound 2014
– Certified Techs, no venting, record keeping,
registration
US EPA



EPA – Published Final Rule for Reporting
– 2010 data, reported in 2011
– 25,000 MT CO equivalent
– Deferred HFC production reporting
 Voluntary in 2009
EPA published “endangerment” finding
– Applicability of Clean Air Act to GHGs
EPA will publish Product Containing in 2009?
– Refrigeration systems only – does not cover
foam
– Ban on importation, consistent with domestic
EPA Regulatons (con’t)

Auto industry agreement – Proposed Rule
– Final expected by early November
– 35.5 mpg – corresponding tailpipe emissions
(250 gms/mile)
– 9-14 gms/mile MAC
– 2016 implementation
EPA also to publish HCFC Allocation Rule
by 1/1/10?
 On September 30, EPA Proposed Rule
under CAA – applicability of New Source
Review – 25,000 MT CO2e

– Applies to all ghgs
HFC Substitutes by Sector: Aerosols, Foams, Fire Suppression
End-Use
Aerosols
All Non-Medical
Change in
CO2e Where
Adopted
Years Until
Available
Replace HFC-134a with HFC-152a
91%
available now
Hydrocarbons
100%
available now
Not-in-Kind (pumps, roll-ons,
etc.)
100%
available now
95.2-99.6%
<5
Dry Powder Inhalers
100%
available now
Injections/Tablets
100%
10+
Inert Gases
100%
available now
Water Mist
100%
available now
99.97%
available now
HFO-1234ze
Medical
Fire
Suppression
Substitute or Mitigation
Strategy
Total Flooding
Fluorinated Ketone (FK-5-1-12)
Foam Blowing
All
other low GWP substances
~90%
10+
Various
Hydrocarbons
100%
available now
XPS
CO2
100%
<5
Spray
H2 O
100%
<5
Appliance, XPS,
Spray
HFO-1234ze
99.4%-99.6%
<5
Appliance Foam
Capture/destruction at end-of-life
~90%
available now
Other End Uses
Capture/destruction at end-of-life
~90%
10+
HFC Substitutes by Sector: Air Conditioning
End-Use
All End Uses
Change in
CO2e Where
Adopted
Years Until
Available
Recovery/Reclamation/
Destruction
10-100%
available
now
Leak Repair
10-100%
available
now
Enhanced HFC-134a Systems
50%
available
now
HFC-152a, HFO-1234yf, CO2
91.3-99.9%
<5
HFO-1234yf, CO2
99.7-99.9%
<10
Microchannel Heat
Exchangers
35-50%
available
now
Low GWP Blends
50-90%
10+
Substitute or Mitigation
Strategy
Auto AC
Bus, Train A/C
Residential &
Commercial AC,
Chillers
Window AC Units
Dehumidifiers
Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO1234yf
99.7-100%
<10
<10
HFC Substitutes by Sector: Refrigeration
End-Use
All End Uses
Supermarkets
Change in CO2e
Where Adopted
Years Until
Available
Recovery/Reclamation/Destruction
10-100%*
available now
Leak Repair
10-100%*
available now
90-100%
available now
50-90%
10+
100%
available now
50-90%
10+
Substitute or Mitigation Strategy
Low Charge / Low Leak Technologies (e.g.,
Cascade or Secondary Systems)
Low GWP Blends
Chillers, Cold Storage
Ammonia
Low GWP Blends
Home Refrigerators/
Freezers
Stand-alone Commercial
Refrigerators/ Freezers
available now
Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf
99.7-100%
<5
Beverage Coolers
<10
Vending Machines
<5
Ice Makers
Transport Refrigeration
<10
Hydrocarbons, Ammonia, Low GWP Blends
50-100%
10+
Ozone