Transcript The Perfect Storm Or a sign of things to come?

The Perfect Storm
Or a sign of things to come?
William A. Price, Ph.D.
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry
NASA satellite photo, 8:20 AM, Aug. 29
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Katrina, which cut
across Florida the
week prior leaving
nine dead and
massive damage,
intensified into a
Category 5 storm over
the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico,
reaching top winds of
175 mph before
weakening as it
neared the coast.
Katrina on Aug. 27, 2005 NASA
Chandeleur Islands
100 Km east of New
Orleans lies this
north-south chain of
islands.
Top: July 2001
Bottom: Aug. 31,
2005
Hurricane Rita on Sept. 21, 2005
IR image from NOAA
Prediction from Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001
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“The intensity of the strongest hurricanes is projected to
increase due to the higher sea surface temperatures in a
globally warming world. Precipitation from hurricanes is
also likely to increase appreciably, leading to flooding
and mudslides. In addition, hurricane storm surges will
be larger due to sea-level rise from melting ice and snow
and the thermal expansion of ocean waters.”
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“At greatest risk of larger storm surges, of course,
are low-lying coastal areas along the Gulf Coast,
such as Florida's Panhandle, Alabama's Gulf shores,
and southern Louisiana.”
# of Hurricanes with Winds > 130 mph
(Categories 4 and 5) Phila. Inq. 9/16/05
120
100
80
60
1975-1989
1990-2004
40
20
0
East
Pacific
West
Pacific
North
Atlantic
SW
Pacific
Indian
Glaciers are receding
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"Receding and wasting glaciers are a chief telltale sign
that global climate change is real and accelerating," said
Jeffrey Kargel, a glacier expert with the U.S. Geological
Survey in Flagstaff, Arizona.
Scientists say the melt rate has accelerated dramatically
since the mid-1990s, which was the hottest decade in a
thousand years.
A glacier in the Peruvian Andes, Qori Kalis, is losing as
much ice in one week as it used to surrender in a year.
In Alaska, the glaciers are losing an average of 6 feet of
thickness a year.
Glaciers in Norway
Mt. Kilimanjaro’s icecap has lost 82% of
its area since 1912.
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Dr. Vincent Keipper was in
the right place at the right
time to get this photo of the
crumbling Furtwängler
Glacier on Mt. Kilimanjaro.
The photo is dramatic
evidence of the glacier's
recession. Room-size
blocks of ice tumbled
across the trail Keipper had
hiked the day before.
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National Geographic
Are we partially responsible?
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A 2-foot snowfall in L.A., Jan. 2005
124 mph winds in Scandinavia shut nuclear power plants and
cut power to hundreds of thousands in Great Britain, February
Missouri River water levels drop to lowest in recorded history,
June
Worst drought on record triggered wildfires and record low
water levels in Portugal and Spain, July
Arizona heat wave kept temperatures over 110oF for over 2
weeks, claiming 21 lives, July
37 inches of rain fall in Bombay in one day killing over 1000
The 5 hottest years on record: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2001, 1997
Swordfish are now being caught off the New Jersey coast
What is happening to Tuvalu?
Tuvalu: population 10,000
What the Islanders say:
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“Cyclones and tropical storms have gotten
much worse since the 1980’s.”
“At the northern tip of Funafuti, a gun
emplacement, built on dry land by U.S.
soldiers in WWII, now sits 25 feet offshore.”
“At the southern end of the island, old-timers
say the meeting hall used to stand in the
middle of the village. It now is waterfront
property.”
“One small island has drowned.”
Animals Behaving Strangely
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In the United States, some warblers are flying north to
Canada.
In Costa Rica, toucans are moving higher up into the
mountains.
A Norwegian man fishing in a fjord had a shock when
he landed a John Dory, a fish more usually found in
temperate waters off southern Europe or Africa.
Salmon had been swimming through the Bering Strait
between Alaska and Russia into the Chukchi Sea.
Mosquitoes carrying the West Nile virus reach the
United States from lower latitudes.
CO2 emissions are on the rise
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Emission rates for the most important anthropogenic
greenhouse gas, CO2, have risen 120-fold in the past
150 years. Whereas in the 19th century emissions were
overwhelmingly from deforestation and other land use
changes, they are now predominantly from burning fossil
fuels.
A direct product of industrialization, emissions now
amount to 6 billion tons of carbon a year, or around 1
ton of carbon per head of the world's population.
Emissions are very uneven. Per-capita North American
emissions are 18 times those of Africa, nine times those
of Asia and 2.3 times those of Europe.
The Greenhouse Effect
Like panes of glass,
gases in the atmosphere
allow high energy UV
radiation to penetrate and
warm the earth. The
same gases block some
of the lower energy IR
radiation (reflected heat).
This naturally warms our
planet.
Here is a month by month record of the carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere going back to 1958 and ending in 2003.
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppm)
From 1860 to 2000.
The Earth’s Circulation System
The global ocean
circulation system, often
called the Thermohaline
Conveyor (TC),
transports heat
throughout the planet.
White sections
represent warm surface
currents. Purple
sections represent deep
cold currents.
Thermohaline Conveyor in the Oceans
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Subpolar seas bordering the
North Atlantic have become
noticeably less salty since the
mid-1960s, especially in the
last decade. This is the largest
and most dramatic oceanic
change ever measured in the
era of modern instruments.
This has resulted in a
freshening of the deep ocean
in the North Atlantic, which in
the past disrupted the Ocean
Conveyor and caused abrupt
climate changes.
Temperature variations
Various temperature predictions to 2100
Correlation between Temperature and
CO2 concentration over 450,000 years
CO2 and Temperature: a Parallel course
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The world is warming up.
Average temperatures are
half a degree centigrade
higher than a century ago.
The nine warmest years
this century have all
occurred since 1980, and
the 1990s were probably
the warmest decade of
the second millennium.
Pollution from emissions
such as carbon dioxide
and methane is at least
partly to blame.
Population, CO2 levels and Temperature
1950-2000
Some Predictions:
Unless the world curbs growing CO2 output,
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concentrations in the air are likely to double from
pre-industrial
o
levels by 2080, and may warm the world by 3 C (>5oF);
climate models predict that land areas will warm twice as much as
the oceans;
high latitudes will warm more quickly in winter;
Arctic ice will melt causing more heat absorption (less reflection by
ice), hence even more warming as well;
salinity of polar seas is dropping due to melting icecaps thus slowing
the thermohaline conveyor.
there will be substantial changes in precipitation, especially in the
tropics;
There is a high risk of extreme weather, including intense El Niño
events in the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes in coastal areas and
droughts in continental interiors;
Tony Auth weighs in.
Is it a myth?