Transcript Climate_Change

Greenhouse Gases
Permanent gases
Variable gases
GHGs
Ozone
Suspended particles
30o cooler w/o GHGs!
Surface Emission
Image shows the
emission from the
infrared portion of the
solar spectrum. Bright
areas represent cold
high cloud tops. Dark
areas represent warm
ground and ocean
surfaces. These images
are color coded to
enhance high cloud tops
http://weather.unisys.com/satellit
e/infrared_enh.html
The Atmosphere
Constant components
(proportions remain the same over time and
location)
N2 and O2 have
little effect on
weather and
atmospheric
processes
Nitrogen (N2)
78.08%
Oxygen (O2)
20.95%
Argon (Ar)
0.93%
Neon, Helium, Krypton
0.0001%
Variable components
(amounts vary over time and location)
GHGs absorb
heat emitted by
the earth
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
0.038%
Water vapor (H20)
0-4%
Methane (CH4)
trace
Sulfur dioxide (SO2)
trace
Ozone (O3)
trace
Nitrogen oxides (NO, NO2)
trace
John Dalton
Proportions
http://www.indiana.edu/~geog109/topics/01_atmosphere/atmosphere.pdf
Water Vapor
Image from observatory.ph
Water Vapor: Latent Heat
Clouds & precipitation: incoming (solar) radiation and outgoing longwave radiation
Evaporative coolers take advantage of liquid to gas transition
Industrial Byproducts
Equivalent CO2
Solar Spectrum
fl=c
hf=E
Energy
http://www.vicphysics.org/events/stav2005.html
Thermal Radiation “Blanket”
http://www.te-software.co.nz/blog/augie_auer.htm
Energy: 50,038 kt
• Energy industries
• Residential
• Industries
• Agriculture
• Transport
• Commercial
• Fugitive Emissions
15,509
4,358
9,496
1,190
15,889
3,369
227
• TOTAL
50,038
Industry: 10,711 kt
• Cement
• Chemicals
• Metals
• Halocarbons
• TOTAL
4,771
99
4,334
1,507
10,711
Agriculture: 33,138 kt
• Rice
• Livestock
• Residue Burning
• Soils
• Grassland Burning
13,364
10,497
583
8,686
8
• TOTAL
33,138
Waste: 9,198.3 kt
• Solid Waste
• Domestic Wastewater
• Industrial Wastewater
• Human Sewage
6,357.3
966.4
920.4
954.2
• TOTAL
9,198.3
LUCF: -127 kt
• Change in Biomass
• Biomass Growth
• Roundwood/Fuelwood harvest
On-site burning
Off-site burning
Decay
TOTAL
-110,381
42,381
28,866
6,555
32,774
-127
Per Capita Emission
National carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
per capita. Shows various countries and their
levels of CO2 emissions per capita. Also
indicates the difference from high income to low
income nations on CO2 output. Central to any
study of climate change is the development of
an emissions inventory that identifies and
quantifies a country’s primary anthropogenic
sources and sinks of greenhouse gas.
Emissions are not usually monitored directly,
but are generally estimated using models.
Some emissions can be calculated with only
limited accuracy. Emissions from energy and
industrial processes are the most reliable (using
energy consumption statistics and industrial
point sources). Some agricultural emissions,
such as methane and nitrous oxide carry major
uncertainties because they are generated
through biological processes that can be quite
variable.
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, National carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and
Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita
Emissions by Country
http://www.carbonplanet.com/country_emissions
Mauna Loa
The dashed red line with
diamond symbols
represents the monthly
mean values, centered on
the middle of each month.
The black line with the
square symbols
represents the same, after
correction for the average
seasonal cycle. The latter
is determined as a moving
average of five adjacent
seasonal cycles centered
on the month to be
corrected, except for the
first and last two and onehalf years of the record,
where the seasonal cycle
has been averaged over
the first and last five
years, respectively. The
Mauna Loa data are being
obtained at an altitude of
3400 m in the northern
subtropics, and may not
be the same as the
globally averaged CO2
concentration at the
CO2 Annual Cycle
 Biospheric respiration in winter
 Photosynthesis in summer
surface.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
The graph shows recent monthly mean
carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii. The last four complete
years of the Mauna Loa CO2 record plus the
current year are shown. Data are reported as a
dry mole fraction defined as the number of
molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the
number of molecules of dry air, multiplied by one
million (ppm)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
Carbon Cycle
Aquatic and Terrestrial Carbon Cycles
Carbon = Life; Carbon = Energy
Photosynthesis
carbon dioxide + water + solar energy 
glucose + oxygen
• 6 CO2 + 6 H2O + Esolar C6H12O6 + 6O2
• Carbon dioxide to oxygen
Chlorophyll molecules are specifically arranged in and
around pigment protein complexes called photosystems
which are embedded in the thylakoid membranes of
chloroplasts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorophyll
Chlorophyll
http://www.chm.bris.ac.uk/motm/chlorophyll/chlorophyll_h.htm
Respiration
Animals-Consumers +
Oxygen + Glucose 
CO2 + Water
(respiration)
C6H12O6 + 6 O2 --> 6 CO2
+ 6 H2O
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
When organic
matter
accumulates faster
than decomposition
processes
Aquatic Carbon Cycle
http://www.lenntech.com/carbon-cycle.htm
Warming
of ocean
Rocks and
sediments
CO2 “locked in” the Permafrost
Melting permafrost peatlands at Noyabrsk, Western Siberia.
http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm
A study published in the
September 7th issue
(2006) of Nature authored
by Katey Walter of the
University of Alaska, and
Jeff Chanton of Florida
State University reports
that greenhouse gas is
escaping into the
atmosphere at a
frightening rate.
Within the framework of the joint
European Greenland Ice Core Project
(GRIP) a 3029 m long ice core was
drilled in Central Greenland from 1989
to 1992 at 72o 35' N, 37o 38' W. Polar
ice cores contain a record of the past
atmosphere - temperature,
precipitation, gas content, chemical
composition, and other properties.
The objective of the GRIP effort was
to reveal the broad spectrum of
information on past environmental,
and particularly climatic, changes that
are stored in the ice. This information
will help investigators understand the
major mechanisms of the earth and
man's potential impact.
The Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/s
ummit/document/
K. Makinson
Studies of isotopes and various atmospheric constituents in the core have revealed a
detailed record of climatic variations reaching more than 100,000 years back in time. The
results indicate that Holocene climate has been remarkably stable and have confirmed the
occurrence of rapid climatic variation during the last ice age (the Wisconsin). Climatic
instability observed in the core part believed to date from the Eemian interglacial has not
been confirmed by other climate records
Antarctic Ice Cores
100,000 Yr. Ice Age Cycles
Components
Perihelion: closest
Aphelion: farthest
•Land responds more to
solar forcing (relative to
water)
•More land in north
•Ice has higher albedo
•Milankovitch cycle is
combo of periods of 3
phenomena
http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm
Components
This wobbling of the Earth on its
axis can be likened to a top
running down, and beginning to
wobble back and forth on its
axis. The precession of Earth
wobbles from pointing at Polaris
(North Star) to pointing at the
star Vega. When this shift to the
axis pointing at Vega occurs,
Vega would then be considered
the North Star. This top-like
wobble, or precession, has a
periodicity of 23,000 years
http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm
Impact
• Temperature Rise
• Changing Precipitation Patterns (rain and
snow)
• Sea Level Rise
• Extreme Events (stronger typhoons, heat
waves)
Arctic
http://nsidc.org/data/iceshelves_images/
Arctic
Temperature increases
in the Arctic due to
climate change, 2090
(NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2
experiment). Climate
change, due to increased
concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, has lead to
increased temperatures
and large scale changes
in the Arctic. The Arctic
sea ice is decreasing,
permafrost thawing and
the glaciers and ice
sheets are shrinking.
Temperature increases in the Arctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2
experiment). (2008). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library.
Antarctic
Projected temperature
increases due to
climate change. Some
of the ice shelves of the
Antarctic peninsula
have split up and
started moving more
rapidly, but the
analyses of the
Antarctic ice sheet are
inconclusive. The
projected climate
situation in 2090 are
presented in this figure,
the temperatures are
annual values from the
NCAR-CCM3 model,
ensemble averages 1-5
for the SRES A2
experiment.
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Temperature increases in the Antarctic due to climate change, 2090 (NCAR-CCM3, SRES A2
experiment), UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/temperature-increases-inthe-antarctic-due-to-climate-change-2090-ncar-ccm3-sres-a2-experiment
Sea Levels
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/19.htm
Sea Levels
http://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/online_delivery/ntslf/
Over the last 100 years, the global sea level has risen by about 10 to 25 cm.
Sea level change is difficult to measure. Relative sea level changes have been
derived mainly from tide-gauge data. In the conventional tide-gauge system, the
sea level is measured relative to a land-based tide-gauge benchmark. The
major problem is that the land experiences vertical movements (e.g. from
isostatic effects, neotectonism, and sedimentation), and these get incorporated
into the measurements. However, improved methods of filtering out the
effects of long-term vertical land movements, as well as a greater reliance
on the longest tide-gauge records for estimating trends, have provided
greater confidence that the volume of ocean water has indeed been
increasing, causing the sea level to rise within the given range.
It is likely that much of the rise in sea level has been related to the concurrent rise in global
temperature over the last 100 years. On this time scale, the warming and the consequent thermal
expansion of the oceans may account for about 2-7 cm of the observed sea level rise, while the
observed retreat of glaciers and ice caps may account for about 2-5 cm. Other factors are more
difficult to quantify. The rate of observed sea level rise suggests that there has been a net positive
contribution from the huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, but observations of the ice sheets do
not yet allow meaningful quantitative estimates of their separate contributions. The ice sheets remain a
major source of uncertainty in accounting for past changes in sea level because of insufficient data about
these ice sheets over the last 100 years
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/19.htm
Extreme Storms
It formed over the Bahamas on August 23,
2005, and crossed southern Florida as a
moderate Category 1 hurricane, causing
some deaths and flooding there, before
strengthening rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico
and becoming one of the strongest
hurricanes on record while at sea. The storm
weakened before making its second and
third landfalls as a Category 3 storm on the
morning of August 29 in southeast Louisiana
and at the Louisiana/Mississippi state line,
respectively.
Hurricane Katrina was the costliest and one of the five deadliest
hurricanes in the history of the United States.[3] It was the sixthstrongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the third-strongest
hurricane on record that made landfall in the United States. Katrina
formed on August 23 during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and
caused devastation along much of the north-central Gulf Coast. The
most severe loss of life and property damage occurred in New
Orleans, Louisiana, which flooded as the levee system
catastrophically failed, in many cases hours after the storm had
moved inland.[4] The hurricane caused severe destruction across
the entire Mississippi coast and into Alabama, as far as 100 miles
(160 km) from the storm's center. In the 2005 Atlantic season,
Katrina was the eleventh tropical storm, fifth hurricane, third major
hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
Simulated Increase of Hurricane Intensities in a CO2-Warmed Climate
Thomas R. Knutson, * Robert E. Tuleya, Yoshio Kurihara
Hurricanes can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to
determine how the character of these powerful storms could change in response to greenhouse gasinduced global warming. The impact of climate warming on hurricane intensities was investigated with a
regional, high-resolution, hurricane prediction model. In a case study, 51 western Pacific storm cases under
present-day climate conditions were compared with 51 storm cases under high-CO2 conditions. More
idealized experiments were also performed. The large-scale initial conditions were derived from a global
climate model. For a sea surface temperature warming of about 2.2°C, the simulations yielded hurricanes
that were more intense by 3 to 7 meters per second (5 to 12 percent) for wind speed and 7 to 20 millibars
for central surface pressure.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Post Office Box
308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [email protected]
Science 13 February 1998:
Vol. 279. no. 5353, pp. 1018 - 1021
DOI: 10.1126/science.279.5353.1018
Corals + elevated temp., high light
intensities, pollutants…..
Global Warming Cynics
• Piers Corbyn, Patrick Michaels, Tim Ball
• 1905 to 1945 temp rise before the
industrial boom
• 800 yr. lag of CO2 from temp. from ice
core data
• youtube  Demanddebate.com
• Science skeptics