Transcript ct5_highl_11

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN
”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”
4th Annual Meeting – Dourdan France
8-12 December 2008
CT5 Highlights
Future scenarios for marine
carbon sources and sinks
WP11. Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios
Objectives
To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation models
(BOGCMs) are able to reproduce carbon cycle observations from the real
world with respect to temporal and spatial distributions
To refine criteria for model performance with respect to observations and
other model
To establish a quality check for the initial conditions for future scenarios with
BOGCMs
D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage 1985-2009: monthly BOGCM data sets
for surface ocean pCO2, atmospheric pCO2, DIC, Cant , Alk, CO32-, pH, O2, PO43-, NO3-,
primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO3, opal), salinity, temperature, sea ice
cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis for pCO2, Cant (month 42)
Common database for model output
So far in C4MIP, only global CO2, ocean/land C-fluxes, …
as in Friedlingstein et al. 2006
In FP6-CARBOOCEAN:
5 models : NCAR, MPIM, IPSL, U.Bergen, (Hadley)
All 2D, 3D variables, same format, on a dods server
Model_Name
Simulation_Name
DIC
Alk
Fe
NO3
Phy, Phy2, …
Zoo, Zoo2, …
…..
(annual mean from 1860 to 2100, monthly means for 1890-1900, 1980-2010, 2090-2100)
D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage 1985-2009: monthly BOGCM
data sets for surface ocean pCO2, atmospheric pCO2, DIC, Cant , Alk, CO32-, pH, O2,
PO43-, NO3-, primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO3, opal), salinity,
temperature, sea ice cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis
for pCO2, Cant (month 42)
Birgit Schneider et al.
Modern Annual-mean CO2 air-sea Fluxes
D 11.7 Atmospheric pCO2 comparison model/observations. (Month 42)
- Atmospheric pCO2
Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3
(Cadule et al. in prep)
Evaluation: Model Intercomparison
- Atmospheric pCO2
Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3
CO2 at MLO vs. SSTnino3 or others
(Cadule et al. in prep)
D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the
comparability model/observations for DIC, O2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers.
(Month 48)
Jerry Tjiputra et al.
BCM-C
D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the
comparability model/observations for DIC, O2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers.
(Month 48)
Birgit Schneider et al.
Introduction
Methods
Results
Conclusions & Outlook
Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygen
Imminent ocean acidification
Long-term climate and ocean acidification commitment
Productivity
Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygen
Global Thomas Frölicher et al. A16N
∆O2
1960
∆O2
2000
2.0
25
-2.0
-25
1960
Optical Depth
2000
(Frölicher et al, in revision)
• Volcanic perturbations in O2 penetrate the top 500 m and persist several years.
• Largest O2 changes at 400m in the late nineties -> Cumulative impact from several
earlier eruptions.
• Difficult to detect on local scales due to large unforced variability.
WP17. Coupled climate carbon cycle simulations
Objectives
To provide standard set ups of coupled carbon-climate models including
simulations for the present
To provide predictions of ocean carbon sources and sinks with the
standard model configurations for a standard emission scenario 2000-2200
To determine important feedback processes – key regional areas in
the response of oceanic carbon cycle to climate change
To provide interfaces for the new feedback processes as
investigated under WP 16 and core theme 4
D17.12 Meeting of WP16 and WP17 to discuss current results and new coupled
models runs, including feedback processes investigated under WP16 (month 48) (all).
BERN 6-7 November 2008 Fortunat Joos et al.
D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and
Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for
Partner 1and 33].
The climate system: HadGEM2-ES
Online
CLIMATE
Direct and
Indirect Effects
Human
Emissions
Offline
Greenhouse Effect
GHG’s
AEROSOLS
Fe deposition
Oxidants:
OH, H2O2
HO2,O3
Human
Emissions
CHEMISTRY
Ian Totterdell et al.
CH4, O3,
DMS,
Mineral dust
Biogenic Emissions:CH4
Dry deposition: stomatal conductance
CO2
ECOSYSTEMS
Land-use
Change
Human
Emissions
D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and
Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for
Partner 1and 33].
Jerry Tjiputra et al.
D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and
Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for
Partner 1and 33].
Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Jerry Tjiputra et al.
D 17.9 Publication on intercomparison of oceanic carbon uptake on the 1860-2100
period, including others C4MIP models (month 42) (Partner 6 and all) [extended
from previous work plan]
Projections:
- Carbon Fluxes and Climate-carbon feedback
… at the global scale : b = dCflux / dCO2 and g = dCflux / dT
b = function of mean mixed layer depth
g = function of SST, MLD, Export, THC, …
… break down these relationships by regions / basins (Laurent Bopp,
Tilla Roy, Marion(discussion
Gehlen et tomorrow)
al.)
D 17.10 Analysis of climate change impact on export production of POC, CaCO3
and potential feedback on carbon uptake (month 42) (Partner 11, 6 and 13).
Birgit Schneider et al.
D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean carbon
uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6)
Projections:
- Introducing other forcings – Carbon fluxes, CC feedback:
… Stratospheric ozone depletion (Lenton et al. submitted)
IPSL Coupled model: Ensemble runs
with/without stratospheric O3 depletion over 1975-2004
With O3 decrease:
Carbon Uptake (GtC y-1)
- stronger winds
- less carbon uptake
Less
sink
1980
Increase in wind stress in SO
1990
2000
D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean
carbon uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6)
Effect of dust on ocean
biogeochemistry
Present dust deposition
Extra CO2 taken up by the plankton
Future dust deposition
Totterdell et al.
An illustrative climate model experiment:
- Business as Usual until 2100
- Stop all emissions in 2100
(Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008)
... and
atmospheric CO2
from a range of
models
... and surface
warming
(Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008,
IPCC, WGI, Fig TS31)
Introduction
Methods
Results & Implications
Conclusions
Model description
Experimental Design
Model Performance
Experimental design
5 simulations, starting from a nearly stable 1000-year preindustrial control
from 1820 AD to 2500 AD
Thomas Frölicher et al.
1) 680 year control run (to detrend possible model drift)
2) Zero emissions after 2100 SRES A2 („High-scenario“)
3) Zero emissions after 2100 SRES B1 („Low-scenario“)
4) Zero emissions after 2000 („Hist-scenario“)
5) No-warming: Zero emissions after 2100 („no-warming-scenario“)
2196 Gt C
1304 Gt C
397 Gt C
1900
2100
2300
2500
Introduction
Methods
Results & Uncertainty
Conclusions
CO2
CO2
Surface Temperature
Sea Level Rise
Carbonate Chemistry
Thomas Frölicher et al.
Atmospheric CO2 [ppm]
Cumulative fraction of ant. CO2
• CO2 decreases towards a new equilibrium, which is not reached by 2500.
• 29 % (27% wo cc) of the anth. carbon emissions willl remain in the atmosphere, but
the ocean takes up most of the remainder.
• Vegetation and soil carbon pools on land become a slight source for anth. carbon.
Introduction
Methods
Results & Uncertainty
Conclusions
CO2
Surface Temperature
Sea Level Rise
Carbonate Chemistry
Steric sea leve rise: global
Steric sea level rise [cm]
Thomas Frölicher et al.
Projected undersaturation in the Arctic extends
to 4000 m depth in 2100 and SRES A2
(m)
Depth
Depth (m)
200%
100%
Observations + modeled perturbation
50%
1000
Distance (km)
saturation
0
Observation-based estimates from: ODEN-91, AOS-94,
ARCSYS-96
(Marco Steinacher et al., 2008)
WP18. Feasibility study on purposeful carbon storage
Objectives
To determine the kinetics and phase-transfer reactions between liquid CO2,
hydrate, and seawater from laboratory experiments under high pressures.
To simulate the near-range dispersion of injected CO2 using these new
kinetic constraints and improved meso-scale models for CO2 injection in the
deep ocean and at the sea floor
To prepare the simulation of the large-scale propagation of injected CO2 and
the global ocean’s retention efficiency (using these improved near-range
constraints and a global high-resolution model)
To provide preliminary quantification of spatial scales for stress on marine
biota due to deliberate CO2 injection.
D18.3 Extended parameters for near-range
geochemical kinetics and phase transfer for
deep ocean storage (month 42)
Nikolaus Bigalke et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008
D18.5 Global scale high resolution modelling of CO2 release (month 42).
Deliverable 18.5: Global-scale, high-resolution
modelling of CO2 release (status @ month 48)
• Models: low-res (ORCA2) vs. hi-res (ORCA05, ¼º at 60ºS)
– Dynamics & CFC-11 evaluation (Lachkar et al., 2007, 2008)
– Upgraded from OPA8 to OPA9 (NEMO): code + physics
– Upgraded TOP (passive-tracer module): F90 etc
– Upgraded acceleration tool (DEGINT): grid, approach
– Complete rewrite of injection code (from OCMIP2-GOSAC)
J. Orr et al.
• Simulations:
– Preindustrial abiotic CO2 and C-14: 3000-year spin-up
– Industrial-era (1765-2000): anthropogenic CO2 & C-14
– Injection simulations launched in Dec 2008
• Low-res “Non-eddying” model (ORCA2) completed by end of
Dec 2008
• High-res “Eddying” model (ORCA05) completed by end of Feb
2009
– Analysis (March – June 2009)
– Report & Manuscript written (July – Dec 2009)
POSTER
Where Mother Earth Runs a Lab for Us Investigating Carbon Storage in
Deep-Sea Sediments by Looking at Natural CO2 Seepage in the
Okinawa Trough Hydrothermal System
Gregor Rehder & the SO 196 shipboard party
D18.6 Comparison of the observations of condensed CO2
behaviour from laboratory and field observations (54)