Transcript Responding to the Future: Conflict and Environment over Time

CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ARMED CONFLICT
James R. Lee, “Climate Change and
Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars”
(Routledge, 2009)
James R. Lee and Alex Kizer,
“Climate Change and Border
Disputes” (forthcoming).
[email protected]
RE-THINK THE WORLD: IPCC REGIONS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100
POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (USING SIPRI)
FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (USING DOD)
HOT AND COLD WARS
Hot Wars
War of Contraction
Livelihood conflict
Ancient Conflict
Developing Countries
Cold Wars
War of Expansion
Militarized conflict
New Conflict
Developed Countries
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: HOT (OLD)
AND COLD (NEW) TENSION BELTS
SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND CONFLICT
 The
End of the Ice Age
 Where Have the Tropical Forests
Gone?
 The Great World Desert and Water
Wars
 Protein and Livelihood Deficits in
Africa
 Central Asia is Heating Up
 Rising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships
SHORT-TERM IMPACTS: CLIMATE
CHANGE AND BORDER DISPUTES
 “Italy
and Switzerland are planning
to redraw their shared alpine border,
as global warming is melting the
glaciers that originally guided the
line.”

Michael Marshall, “Climate changes
Europe's borders – and the world's”, New
Scientist Online, March, 2009.
WHY BORDERS WILL MOVE DUE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
 1.
Straight and Crooked Borders:
Nation-states and colonialism
 2.
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 3.
Why Types of Crooked Borders:
Mountains
Rivers
Glaciers
Early onset of climate change in
impacting these three areas
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SHORT-TERM
BORDER DISPUTES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The Political Dimensions of
Climate Change and Equity
Why No Pessimism in
Climate Change Forecasts?
Winners and Losers: Is
Climate Change Good for Me?
The Climate as War:
Environmental Modification
Treaty Updates
