Transcript Mozart in Psychology

Sustainable security and its
implications for politicians and people
April 2009
Dr. John Sloboda,
Executive Director
Acknowledgments
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Paul Rogers, Chris Abbott (ORG)
The late Janet Bloomfield
Greenpeace International
Ford Foundation of America
Network for Social Change
Fundacion para las Relaciones Internationales y el
Dialogo Exteriores (FRIDE)
And all our core funders (individual and
organisational)
Structure of presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Two approaches to security
Global threats
The failure of the control paradigm
Promoting sustainable security
1. Two approaches to security
Two approaches to security
Key differences
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Both approaches acknowledge a comparable range
of threats
Their differences are more in
(a) the relative priorities placed on threats
(b) the responses selected to deal with them
(c) the degree to which separate problems are dealt
with in “silos” or joined up
The control paradigm
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Attempts to control or suppress the manifestations
of insecurity, primarily through the use (or the
threat of use) of military force. It sees armed
groups with hostile intent as the paramout source
of threat. It deals with threats singly.
Examples include
- Cold War deterrence
- the post 9-11 “War on Terror”
The sustainable security view
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Attempts to address the long-term drivers of
insecurity, primarily through the reduction or
removal of underlying root causes of violence. It
sees human use of resources as the paramount
source of threat. It takes a comprehensive
approach.
Partial examples include
- Marshall Plan in Post-war Europe
- Improvement of the conditions for Catholics
in Northern Ireland.
2. Global Threats
Background
Initial report based on work commissioned by Greenpeace
International, published in English (June 2006) and Spanish
(October 2006)
Beyond Terror
Book published by Rider Press (April 2007), and now translated
into 4 languages (Portuguese, Dutch, German, Spanish).
Examples of impact
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President Zapatero quoted from it during policy speeches in 2006
the German Parliament requested copies for the MP's library, and
ORG was invited to address a group of senior German MPs in the
German Parliamentary Green Party
John Ashton (Margaret Beckett’s special representative on Climate
Change) ordered 40 copies to distribute during the UNSC debate on
Climate Change and Security in April 2007.
In November 2007 ORG was invited to address the Australian Police
Federation, and was the first to analyse the impact of climate change
on policing.
The threats identified in the UK National Security Strategy of April
2008 (and much of the conceptual language) are similar (and in some
cases identical)
Follow-up work
An Uncertain Future:
Law Enforcement,
National Security &
Climate Change
(2008)
Identifying trends
fundamental threats –
four interconnected trends:
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Climate change
Competition over resources
Marginalisation of the ‘majority world’
Global militarisation
Climate Change
Deaths from climate change
“In my view, climate change is the most severe problem we are
facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism…"
“… based on the number of fatalities that have already occurred…
global warming has already killed more people than terrorism.”
Sir David King,
UK Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, 2004
(editorial in “Science” journal)
Deaths from climate change
Key threats from Climate change
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Coastal effects – rising sea levels
Rainfall effects – drought & desertification
Mass migration
Food and water shortages
UK implications?
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Main effects in “global south”
European implications could include
- Civil unrest and eco-terrorism
- Intercommunal violence (e.g. against
immigrants)
- international instability (redrawing of world
map and potential for conflict)
Climate change – remedies
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Drastically reduce dependence on CO2
emitting fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) in the
next 10 years
Energy conservation
Renewables (wind, wave, solar, tidal and
biomass)
The nuclear dilemma –
the power-weapon link
Remedies – nuclear/renewable?
Sign of hope 1 – Individual leadership
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Obama has reaffirmed his campaign vow to
reduce CO2 emissions by 80 percent by
2050, and invest $150 billion in new energysaving technologies.
UK Climate Change Act is the first in the
world. Commits to 20% reduction by 2020
and 80% by 2050.
China is considering a firm target for carbon
emissions for the first time (April 2009).
Competition over Resources
3/6
New Ecomonics Foundation
“ For everyone to live at the current European
average level of (energy) consumption, we
would need to more than double the
biocapacity available – the equivalent of 2.1
planet earths – to sustain us…….
………If everyone consumed at the US rate, we
would require nearly five.” (January 2006)
Competition over resources
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World’s major economies are
net importers of oil
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Growth in demand from USA
and China is rising rapidly
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5 Persian gulf countries
contain two-thirds of all oil
reserves:
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, UAE
China’s oil consumption
World oil reserves – end 2004
US Military posture
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CENTCOM – primary
purpose is to maintain
control of Gulf region’s
oil
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Permanent bases in Iraq
are close to oilfields
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Complete military
withdrawal from Iraq is
an unlikely option for the
USA
Oil wars
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UK government's former chief scientific
adviser says Iraq war was about oil, not
weapons of mass destruction – and warns
there will be more 'resource wars' to
come
(David King, Guardian, Feb 12 2009)
Peak oil (www.oildecline.com)
Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being
discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.
Water Politics
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One in five people (1.1 billion) have no access
to safe drinking water
(UN Report, “Water and Development” March 2006)
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Population of Nile basin will double over 25
years
Israel and Palestine share same declining
water resource.
Water Politics
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Real risk of “water wars”
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Avoiding conflict requires strict
observance of water laws and
robust multilateral approaches to
water management
Remedies – oil grab / “frugality”
Sign of hope 2 – China’s ecological city
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Dongtan (near
Shanghai), being built
from scratch to house
800,000 people
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Carbon-free, energy from
renewables (inc. rice husks)
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All buildings collect rainwater
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Work and residential areas in
walking distance
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No petrol or diesel allowed
within the city
Marginalisation of the ‘Majority World’
4/6
Marginalisation of the majority world
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Global wealth dividend
is not being shared
equitably
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The rich get richer, and
the poor get poorer,
both within and between
countries
Ecomonic factors
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One in five people survive on less than $1 a day
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MDG goals far from achievement
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International trade and aid rules prevent poorer
countries developing their own economies
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Western corporations plunder the natural
resources of poor countries, with little local
benefit
Social instability and armed conflict have been associated
with rising income inequality and growing resource scarcity.
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Indonesia. mobs have burned factories and cars to protest grievances
ranging from land disputes to pollution from shrimp ponds.
Philippines, Muslim rebels are most active in western Mindanao,
where the wealth gap between that region and the capital Manila is
greatest.
Peru. There is a close correlation between the stronghold areas of the
guerrilla movement and the areas suffering greatest poverty.
Mexico. The Zapatista rebellion in the southern Mexican state of
Chiapas is largely attributable to grossly inequitable patterns of land
tenure and the inability of peasant farmers to subsist on their small,
degraded land holdings.
Social factors
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Internal persecution of 1 billion people
from ethnic, religious, or linguistic groups
Political marginalisation of such groups.
Organised crime, social disorder, and
cultural tensions
Fuels support for political violence and
terrorism
Communication factors
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Education can lead to increased expectations of
opportunity
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Global communications technology adds to
perceptions and understandings of injustice
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IT allows new and difficult to control forms
networking between those with frustrated
expectations
Remedies –“securitisation” /development
Sign of hope 3 – G20 Declaration
“We are determined not only to restore growth
but to lay the foundation for a fair and
sustainable world economy. We recognise
that the current crisis has a disproportionate
impact on the vulnerable in the poorest
countries and recognise our collective
responsibility to mitigate the social impact of
the crisis to minimise long-lasting damage to
global potential”
Global Militarisation
5/6
The cold war
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Cold war military investment at the expense of
civil programmes, supposedly to “keep the
peace”
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Conflicts worldwide from 1945-2000 killed 25
million people
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The idea that the Cold War was a period in which
nuclear weapons kept the peace is a myth
Post cold-war
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In the 1990s there was some nuclear
disarmament
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A Chemical Weapons Convention was ratified
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US developed “global reach” to fight limited wars
at a distance (high-tech, low human engagement
– military might rather than “hearts and minds”)
The Bush administration
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Rejected
multilateralism (CTBT,
ABMT)
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Worked to develop “usable”
nuclear weapons (B61-11
“bunker busters”)
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Refused to strengthen
Biological and Toxins
Weapons Treaty (BTWT)
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By aggression, and the threat
of aggression, encouraged
nuclear proliferation in
vulnerable states
A new arms race
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India, Pakistan, and China are engaged in
an uncontrolled action-reaction arms
buildup
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This is unconstrained by any arms control
architecture such as was present in the
cold war
Remedies – CP / NP
Controlling global militarisation
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Promote the rule of law
and the diplomatic
resolution of international
disputes
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Reconfigure military forces
to a non-provocative
defensive posture,
focusing on peacekeeping
and humanitarian missions
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Ensure control of both
nuclear and biological
weapons (through BTWC
and NPT) and
halt the development of
new nuclear
weapons
or the
upgrading
of current
systems.
Sign of hope 4 – the Obama-Biden plan
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Move Toward a Nuclear Free World: Obama
and Biden will set a goal of a world without
nuclear weapons, and pursue it.
They will stop the development of new nuclear
weapons;
seek dramatic reductions in U.S. and Russian
stockpiles of nuclear weapons and material;
expand the U.S.-Russian ban on intermediaterange missiles so that the agreement is
global.
3. The failure of the control
paradigm
6/6
Limits of militarism
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External military approaches complicate and
prolong internal strife (Iraq, Afghanistan)
Efforts of international actors disable internal
actors and defer real political development
(the above, also former Yugoslavia)
Civilians killed by US/UK/Israeli forces create
bitterness and “cycles of violence”
Summary
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Violent military
responses exacerbate
local grievances which
bring more recruits to
terror
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Addressing grievances
and rectifying global
wealth disparities are
the only long-term
solutions
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This requires
engagement with the
politically violent
(cf Northern Ireland)
Promoting Sustainable Security
Sustainable Security
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A sustainable approach
attempts to:
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Police immediate dangers
while resolving the root
causes of long-term
threats
Coordinate a cooperative
approach through a
reformed United Nations
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Preventative approach
addressing likely causes
of conflict well ahead,
rather than attempting
to control the crisis
once underway
A systemic and integrated approach
Meeting 5 key principles
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Focuses on ordinary people and their needs
(“human security” rather than “state
security”)
Addresses the most serious threats
Prioritises preventive approaches
(remove threats rather than control consequences)
Promotes a comprehensive approach
Promotes inclusivity in dialogue and diplomacy
Officials increasingly share
our analysis of threats
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United Nations High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges &
Change
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UK Ministry of Defence DCDC, Strategic Trends
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US intelligence agencies National Intelligence Estimate
UK National Security Strategy
March 2008 – goes some way
We need to be able to tackle the underlying drivers of conflict
and instability ---- in particular:
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Poverty, inequality and poor governance …focusing on areas where
poverty breeds conflict…
Climate change and competition for natural resources - …a new
global fund.. in the areas most under stress and therefore most
likely to suffer instability as well as humanitarian disaster;
Disease and global pandemics .. increase global vaccine supplies
...
(Gordon Brown to Parliament 19th March 2008)
But not a root-and branch rethink!
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“The most serious and urgent remains the
threat from international terrorism”
“the foundation of our approach
Is to maintain strong, balanced,
flexible and deployable armed
forces”
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The job half done
“The plans are more of an assessment of the
threats to Britain rather than a strategy for
tackling them.”
Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat leader
Estonia
- Are Estonia’s current security policies
sustainable?
- What posture towards Russia and the
Russians is likely to deliver long-term
sustainable security for the Estonian people?
The “Moving Towards Sustainable
Security Project 2008-9”
Overall aim: To develop and promote
sustainable responses to major threats.
All materials and publications free on
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/work/global_security/sustain
able_security.php
Specific objectives
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To ensure that voices from the global south play a
central role in the development of the sustainable
security concept with the input of non-Western
analysis.
To explore and define specific sustainable security
national policies, for example for the UK context,
which will also act as concrete examples for
promotion of the concept at the international level.
To promote the sustainable security concept to as
wide an international audience as possible.
Specific Activities
a) International Advisory Group on Sustainable
Security
b) Regional sustainable security consultations
c) UK Policy Group for Sustainable Security
Advisory Group
The group will build contacts with international
public figures who could act as ‘ambassadors’ for the
work with key governments around the world, and
identify key policy initiatives to take forward.
Advisory Group
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Professor Amitav Acharya, Director of the Centre for Governance and
International Affairs at the University of Bristol (India/UK)
Dr. Mariano Aguirre, Co-director of the Fundación para las Relaciones
Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (Spain)
Dr. Carolina Hernandez, Chair of the Institute for Strategic and Development
Studies (Philippines)
Isabel Hilton, senior journalist with the BBC and The Guardian and editor of
China Dialogue (UK)
Dr. Bassma Kodmani, Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative and
Senior Research Associate at the Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches
Internationales (Syria/France)
Laurie Nathan, Research Fellow in the Environmental & Geographical Science
Department of the University of Cape Town and former member of the African
Union mediation team for Darfur (South Africa)
Michael Renner, Director of the Global Security Project at the Worldwatch
Institute (USA)
Jürgen Trittin, former Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety (Germany)
Key advisory group steer
EQUITY is a key concept:
Achieving the security of all people. Our
security cannot be achieved at the
expense of others’ security.
Six Regional Consultations
To explore the regional implications of each of the
fundamental threats to security ORG has identified
and draw upon non-Western analysis in the
development of policy solutions.
Five Regional Consultations
The host partner organisations are:
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Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Singapore (Asia and
Australasia)
Institute for Peace Studies, Egypt (Middle East and North Africa)
Institute for Security Studies, South Africa (sub-Saharan Africa)
UN Mandated University for Peace, Costa Rica (Latin America
and the Caribbean)
Institute for Policy Studies, USA (North America)
FAFO / Heinrich Boll Foundation, Norway/Georgia (Europe and
Eurasia)
Asia and Australasia Consultation
Participants: academics, think-tankers and former
members of government (including the former
Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom).
 Countries represented included: Australia,
Philippines, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam, China,
Cambodia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Burma,
Singapore.
 Reports now published:
Asia and Australasia (Nov 2008)
Middle East and North Africa (March 2009)
Asia and Australasia Consultation
Drivers of insecurity identified:
 Challenges to state integrity (internal –
separatist movements; external – territorial
disputes)
 Regional Power Shift (China, Japan, India)
 Environmental and humanitarian disasters
Asia and Australasia Consultation
Blockages to change identified:
 Regional focus on sovereignty and noninterference
 Lack of inclusive and effective regional
security architecture
 Absence of powerful but “neutral” country to
take the lead
Asia and Australasia Consultation
Recommendations:
 Balanced and fair agreements on emissions
reduction (China, India, USA)
 Regional institution-building (to tackle territorial
disputes, arms race, environmental refugees)
 US/China engagement focussing on trade,
environmental protection and transparency, rather
than military balance of power
 High-level “panel of elders” to promote alternatives
(in the absence of strong civil society)
Middle-East & North Africa Consultation
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Participants: academics, think-tankers and former
and current members of government (including a
member of the Shura Council (Upper House in the
Egyptian Parliament), the Secretary General of the
Arab Parliament and the Jordanian Ambassador to
Egypt
Countries represented: Egypt, Yemen, Morocco,
Jordan, Israel, Syria, UAE, Sudan, Afghanistan, Iran,
Saudi Arabia.
Middle-East & North Africa Consultation
Drivers of insecurity identified:
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Conflict and occupation
Resource management (oil, water, food)
Social exclusion (women, political exclusion,
marginalisation)
Middle-East & North Africa Consultation
Blockages to change:
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Al Qaida and other fundamentalist
movements
The Israel-Palestine Conflict
External interference in the region
Middle-East & North Africa Consultation
Recommendations:
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Democratic reform from within the region
Comprehensive peace process (based on Arab
Peace Initiative)
Regional integration (Arab League + 3, to include
Israel, Iran, Turkey)
International institutions to improve Middle East
representation (e.g. UNSC, IMF, WB)
Sub-Saharan Africa Consultation
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Participants: academics, think-tankers and former
members of government (included the former Head
of Mobutu’s security services (now working for ICG)
as well as government workers from Ethiopia and
DRC).
Countries represented: South Africa, Cameroon,
Kenya, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo,
Botswana, Nigeria, Somalia, Sierra Leone,
Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Burundi.
Sub-Saharan Africa Consultation
Drivers of insecurity:
 The nature of the state: post colonial legacy,
weak institutions, role of donors)
 Legacies of war: conflict, militarism
 Management of resources: role of foreign
interests (e.g. diamonds, rare metals)
Sub-Saharan Africa Consultation
Blockages to change:
 Weak leadership : governance and
corruption
 Role, perception and treatment of Africa
(“sick continent” discourse)
 Regional coherence / identity
Sub-Saharan Africa Consultation
Recommendations:
 Democratic reform
 Increased regional integration (and trade)
 Actual and cultural demilitarisation
 Education – Youth-driven change
Shared themes
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The extent to which both colonialism and ‘the West’ are blamed
for causing insecurity, with less acknowledgement of local
responsibilities (such as poor governance and corruption).
The belief that climate change, if it exists at all, has been
caused by others and is therefore up to others to solve (even
though they will be the ones hardest hit by climatic changes).
The primary importance of regional institutions in addressing
security threats, and the high regard in which the EU is held in
this respect (seen as a potential model for Asia in particular).
The almost complete agreement with the need for an integrated
approach to threats and a preventative approach to responses
(as opposed to short-term control measures).
UK Policy Group
To specifically address the policy implications for the
UK of the sustainable security analysis. This group
will develop the sustainable security analysis into
workable policies.
UK Policy Group
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Philippa Drew, former Director of Global Issues in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office
Nick Mabey, Chief Executive of E3G and former Senior Adviser in the Prime Minister’s
Strategy Unit
Sir David Omand, Visiting Professor at King's College London and former Permanent
Secretary Home Office and UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator in the Cabinet Office
Lord King of Bridgwater, former Secretary of State for the Environment, Northern Ireland
and Defence, Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee, and Deputy Chair of the
Conservative Party's National and International Security Policy Group
Rear Admiral Chris Parry, former Director General of the Development, Concepts and
Doctrine Centre in the Ministry of Defence
Malcolm Savidge, former Labour MP and Convenor of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on
Global Security and Non-proliferation
Lord Wallace of Saltair, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs in the House of
Lords and Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, Professorial Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute,
Professor of International Politics at the University of Bradford, and former Special Adviser
to Foreign Secretaries Jack Straw MP and Margaret Beckett MP
Challenges for western governments
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Public disillusionment with politicians and
politics
Public belief that government serves
corporate before public interest
Lack of clear avenues for meaningful
democratic participation
Easy attraction of political extremes, right, left
and anarchistic
Challenges for civil society and NGOs
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Difficult for
governments to think
long term
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Don’t like to promote
policies which curb
“growth”
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Citizens acting individually
and collectively can improve
links between the:
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Peace movement
Environment movement
Development movement
Thank you!
www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk
[email protected]
Dr. John Sloboda,
Executive Director