Transcript Slide 1
Modeling Threats to Coral Reefs and Economic Impacts Lauretta Burke World Resources Institute (WRI) P-S-R Threats can change condition and productivity Threats (Pressure) ---> Change in Condition Change in ---> Productivity Threats can change condition and productivity Threats - Overfishing - Sewage Discahrge - Increased Sediments and Nutrients - Mangrove Removal Change in Coral condition Change in Productivity LCC Diversity Coral extent Coral growth Fish Production Visual appeal from divers Shoreline Protection Changes in Good / Service Fish Catch Fish Productivity Fishing Costs Changes in Good / Service Visual Appeal to Divers - Some divers go to other destinations - Some divers do fewer dives - Some retire Changes in Good / Service Shoreline Protection Services (Will take longer to observe) - May result in increased routine erosion - Less protection during big storms Assumptions required for these links 1. Physical 2. Economic Assumptions required for Fisheries 1. Productivity for different reef quality levels (based on synthesis of literature under R@R Caribbean, 2004) Reef Condition Healthy Moderate Poor Assumed Maximum Sustained Fisheries Production (mt/km2/yr) 4 2.3 - 2.9 0.7 - 1.7 2. Hand over to economists to evaluate implications of change in price and In fishing costs. Assumptions required for Dive Tourism 1. Diver “balk rate” due to change in reef condition (based on published and unpublished dive industry surveys and synthesis of expert opinion – from R@R Caribbean) Reef Condition Healthy Moderate Poor Reduced Diving 0% 1-5% loss 4-10% loss Mapping Current Pressure 1. Expert Knowledge 2. Modeled Threat Expert Mapping – Belize Coastal Threat Atlas (2005) Expert Mapping: Source: Belize Coastal Threat Atlas • Overfishing • Poaching / illegal fishing • Coastal Dev • Tourist Pressure • Anchor Damage • Dredging • Mangrove clearing • Agricultural runoff • Bleaching / disease Modeled Threat: Coastal Development • Dredging, land filling and reclamation • Mangrove removal • Mining of sand and coral • Runoff from construction Replace photo • Sewage discharge • Impacts from tourism Modeled Threat: COASTAL DEVOPMENT threatens an estimated one-third of Caribbean coral reefs. Estimated threat Low Medium High Based on distance to cities, ports, airports, tourist centers, population density and growth, tourism growth. Threat: Sediment and Pollution from Inland Sources • Land clearing • Poor agricultural practices • Fertilizer and pesticide runoff Analysis Method 1) Derive Watersheds (basins) 2) Relative Erosion Potential – • USDA’s Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) • Combines four factors into single index – – – – slope precipitation soil characteristics land cover type Relative Erosion Potential (REP) Relative Sediment Delivery Modeled Sediment Threat From ICRAN MAR Watershed Analysis Sediment Transport Modeling • animations Source: University of Miami, WRI. Scenarios (future) • Future Threat – – Expected develop \ growth – Mangrove clearing Scenarios (future) • Future Threat • Reduced Threat – – Increased Investment in MPAs – Improved coastal management Scenarios (future) • Future Threat • Reduced Threat • Climate-related threats – Warming seas \ bleaching – Sea level rise – Storm Intensity – Acidification Issues 1. Developing scenarios of current and future threat 2. Linking threats to physical change 3. Linking physical change to economic impacts Linking Threats to Physical Change • Threats influence on coral and mangrove extent and abundance • Threats influence on fisheries abundance Information Needs: • Data on past response • Opinion on anticipated change Linking Physical Change to Economic Impacts Information Needs: • Data on change in fish productivity under different conditions • Data and opinion (insights) into tourist response to changes in environmental quality • Data \ models from insurance companies on how they estimate \ value coastal risk