Transcript Space Transportation BSR Template - IFPA

Emerging Technologies
for
Homeland Security
John Stammreich
Vice President - Homeland Security
Boeing Phantom Works
October 2004
9/11 Commission Recommendation
“Hard choices must be made in allocating limited resources.
The U.S. government should identify and evaluate the
transportation assets that need to be protected, set riskbased priorities for defending them, select the most practical
and cost-effective ways of doing so, and then develop a plan,
budget, and funding to implement the effort. The plan should
assign roles and missions to the relevant authorities (federal,
state, regional, and local) and to private stakeholders. In
measuring effectiveness, perfection is unattainable. But
terrorists should perceive that potential targets are defended.
They may be deterred by a significant chance of failure."
Needed Focus
• Balanced, Sensible Approach
• You can’t do everything or build a “perfect net”
• Focus on balancing effectiveness and affordability
• Responses should not cause more harm than the attack
• Low hanging fruit may have unintended consequences
• Proactive vs Reactive
• Detect early
• Quick, coordinated, decisive action
• Contain the threat as far away as possible
• Emphasize Deterrence vs Response
• Actively deter threat rather than wait for it
• Understand what influences and deters the enemy
Requires collaboration and integration
of information and resources
Threat Deterrence View
Threat is
Incentivized
High
Reduce
Impact:
Payoff
Detect
Prevent
Localize
Mitigate
Contain
Reassure
(Symbolic
+
Economic
+
Coercive
Value
Factors)
Create Uncertainty: Intelligence,
Sensors, Interdiction, Forensics,
Attribution, Retribution
Low
Low
Downside
(Cost + Difficulty + Backlash)
Threat is
High discouraged
Network Centric Operations
“Getting the right information to right elements at the right time”
•
Automated cognitive knowledge
management
•
Interoperability of new & legacy
systems
•
Networked broadband
communications
•
Visualization software highlights
key information
•
Effectiveness of the net increases
with number of sensors (Metcalf’s
law)
Information access and knowledge management
allows decision making to move from reactive to proactive
NCO Enabling Technologies & Origins
Technologies
• Web portal/ data access
• User customized windows/displays
• Publish/ subscribe infosphere
• Interactive database access
• Database driven displays
• Variable message format
• Information security/ encryption
• Role-based access
• Multi-level security
• Collaborative chat
• Fast contextual search
• Data mining/data correlation engines
• M&S-based Decision aids
• Interoperable communications
• Ad hoc mobile networks
• Demand-based comm bandwidth
Commercial
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Military
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Leveraging Commercial Information Technology
• Spiral evolution of existing nets is underway
• Ad hoc systems currently used to navigate around existing
stovepipes
• Normal requirements/modeling/development chain bypassed
• JWID ’04 case study , Combatant Commands as early
adopters
• Enhanced data mining / Information Management running
commercial industry
• The future:
• Swarming nets keep growing
• Threat Correlation, Cognitive Knowledge Management /
Decision Aids migrating from commercial industry
• Natural Selection - Biological vs traditional DoD model
• Commercial forces & practices will dominate NCO
Implications for Homeland Security
• Understanding the nature of the threat and deterrence are
key to affordability.
• The search for the “holy grail” silver bullet sensor is giving
way to layered sensors.
• Greatest payoff will be in the area of automated cognitive
information systems which can share and collaborate.
• New HLS capabilities will come from technology push rather
than requirements pull.
• Improvements in information management and collaboration
will come from the commercial world at their own pace.
• Collaborative capabilities swarming nets and mobil ad hoc
communications will spontaneously break through
organizational or cultural barriers.
Policy Implications
• Complementary advances are being made in both
Commercial and DoD networked worlds and they are
bootstrapping each other.
• To achieve the situational and domain awareness necessary
to contain terrorism, we need to take advantage of the natural
dynamic of the networked world.
• The current top down, scripted architecture driven R&D
development cycle is an artificial overlay on net
development.
• Spiral evolution, infused with technology breakthroughs, is
synergistic to the natural evolution of the net.
The Net Generation and the net entities they spawn
will collaborate regardless of structure to achieve
success