Transcript Territorial crisis

China Threat Theory
GISA 104: International Security and Peace
Professor: Kim, Jae Chun
Week 15: Contemporary Security Issue 3 / Sino-US
Relations and its Impact on World Security
Zhang Piaopiao (I36048)
Date: 12/08/2014
Essay Question:
What kinds of security threats does China’s rise
pose to the world in general and to Asia in
particular？
China Threat Theory
"Yellow Peril" - the excuse of the Eight-Power Allied Forces
↓
New era of "China Threat Theory"
growth of China's economy
military capability
“peaceful rise” (和平崛起)
“powerful nation strategy”(强国战略)
invade China in 1900
Possible threats to the world
Economic threat:
 second largest economy entity
accumulate global capital and compete with the West in international fund
manipulation of exchange rates and cheap labor
↓
trade imbalance / unemployment / monopoly / dumping (anti-Chinese movements)
 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - cautious attempt
 IMF announced RMB as its SDR basket of elite currencies - getting invloved in making
economic rules - rewarding China's strong pursuit of the global status
Possible threats to the world
Military security:
 large-scale capability of military power
military expansion for hegemony
long-term military ambitions
increasing military spending
 nuclear weapons and missiles - long range attack
 send troops to resourceful places and built potential military bases
Possible threats to the world
Resources and environment security:

large population - consume lots of resources

Chinese consumption boom all over the world
imbalance in supply and demand

regional conflict - seize limited resources

long-term and widespread pollution
Possible threats to the world
Political hegemony:

offensive realism - hegemony
construct a totally different political system in the world(with communist system)

feasibility of communism
rise of socialism
destruction of capitalism
China is rising - unknown road and goal
Civilization exports:
Confucius College - political propaganda branch of Communist Party
China is planning ideological and political penetration to the West under the cover of
Confucius College
Possible threats to the world
 Paris terrorist attacks - international political and economic space for China
 European debt crisis :
China-European Economic Cooperation - get involved in European countries
unimaginable investment mergers and acquisitions
energy, infrastructure, banking, securities, insurance, airports, aviation, ports and other
sensitive industries
 U.S can not maintain control in the South China Sea and the Middle East at the same time
China's pressure will be much smaller.
 In Asia: regional hegemony is the best guarantor for survival
maximize the power gap between itself and its neighbors
try to push U.S military force out of Asia
Possible threats to Asia
Territorial crisis:
China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and
missiles
 South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The
Philippines/Vietnam/Japan)
 Taiwan Island
 territory that ceded to other countries in
colonial period(Russia/Mongolia)
 continuous border disputes(India)
Possible threats to Asia
Territorial crisis:
China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and
missiles
 South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The
Philippines/Vietnam/Japan)
 Taiwan Island
 territory that ceded to other countries in
colonial period(Russia/Mongolia)
 continuous border disputes(India)
Possible threats to Asia
Territorial crisis:
China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and
missiles
 South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The
Philippines/Vietnam/Japan)
 Taiwan Island
 territory that ceded to other countries in
colonial period(Russia/Mongolia)
 continuous border disputes(India)
Possible threats to the world
 North Korea nuclear weapon crisis:
•
China did not follow the comprehensive containment strategy proposed by the U.S, and
China also did not fully cooperate with U.S and South Korea.
•
nuclear research in North Korea could lead to nuclear weapon arms race in Asia
→ North Korea is always a threat
•
if another Kim Jong-un appeared in China
whip up stultifying fanatical nationalism/outward expansion/regional war/population decline/
refugees/foreign property losses/global economy confusion/nuclear pollution → destruction of
the earth
for other democratic countries, maybe they are able to win the war, but they still have too
much to lose
Conclusion
“China Threat Theory” is not completely the problem of China, what is really important is the other
countries’ perceptions and suspicions of China, and a dangerous China is largely depends on how do
you think about China.
China is hiding its capacities and biding its time, and claiming a peaceful rise, but it is hard to say
what will happen in the future.
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Questions & Comments？