Transcript Energy resources and conflict

Energy resources and conflict
Survey of perceived
energy security threats (review)
• Energy scarcity (peak oil fears)
• Energy export dependency and poor
governance (resource curse)
• Energy utilization and consequences for global
commons (climate change)
• Energy and conflict (resource wars)
Long term outlook (IEA 2012)
• World energy demand to grow by 1/3 by 2035.
• Demand for oil forecast to grow by 13-14%.
– Production capacity to remain tight.
• China’s PPP GDP to exceed US by 2015 and in
market exchange terms by 2020.
– Accounts for 50% of increased demand for oil.
• US energy independent by 2030.
• CO2 emissions related to energy rise by 20% even
with reductions in production in developed world.
– Expected long-term mean temperature rise of 3.6
centigrade.
Pessimistic view
• Tight energy markets produce volatility and
perceived insecurity, esp. among politicians.
• Chinese foreign economic policy is targeted at
‘locking up’ ownership of major mineral/energy
resources.
• US has believed since 1973 that its security is
dependent on access to oil, which has militarized
its energy policy.
• High energy prices empower Iran, Russia, and
Venezuela, which are hostile to international
order.
Pessimistic view
• Impact of climate change on poorly governed
regions will produced human security threats
and migration towards developed world.
• Uneven distribution of access to secure
sources of energy across globe will produce
international conflict.
• Increased demand for energy resources,
especially oil, will contribute to internal
conflicts.
Optimistic view
• Oil is a partially fungible commodity and easily
tradable.
– Pay attention to grade, sulfur content, etc.
• Higher energy prices will moderate fossil fuel use
and bring new and alternative sources to market.
• Rising powers will be able to secure energy on an
international market.
• US will become net energy exporter by 2030.
– Implications for current account deficit?
Optimistic view
• By 2030, most international movement of energy
> Middle East and Asia.
– Somebody else’s problem?
• Russia, Iran, Venezuela will continue to be poorly
governed irritants rather than threats.
• Higher energy prices will produce greater
efficiency and alternative renewable sources that
will moderate rate of change in climate.
• But what about internal conflicts due to energy?
Internal conflicts and energy
• Relationship between natural resource
production and civil war is mixed.
– Depends on resource
– Relation between oil production and civil war
onset stronger.
• Associated with secessionist movements.
• Associated with concentrated resources
• Associated with enclave production
– Relation between lootable resources and civil war
duration is stronger.
Source: Jeffrey Dixon, “What Causes Civil Wars? Integrating Quantitative
Findings,” International Studies Review (2009) 11: 707-735.
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Environment, economy, energy and
conflict
• Direct relationship:
– Energy production associated with environmental
consequences.
– Energy production takes place in areas with weak
state control.
– Conflict with local communities over land
ownership and traditional communal rights.
– Conflict to pressure state to pay attention to
peripheral communities.
Ecuadorian Amazon
Ecuadorian Amazon
Niger delta
Niger delta militants
Niger delta
Indirect relationship with environment
• Climate change
– Higher temperatures mean increased transpiration in
warmer areas, greater pressure on fresh water.
– Littoral areas exposed to more extreme weather
events and sea level rise. Energy production uses large
amounts of fresh water.
– 15% of fresh water worldwide used for energy
production.
• Flight to safety and human migration.
– Percentage of humans living in littoral areas is
growing.
Coastal population growth
Bottom line
• Four major sources of threats to energy
security and because of contemporary
patterns of energy use.
• Indicators on scarcity have turned positive for
United States.
– Energy independence for a generation?
• Other indicators have not.
• What to do?