Transcript Perspectivas INPE: 2005-2009

Apresentação de Resultados do IPCC AR4 WG1
Jose A. Marengo
CPTEC/INPE
OUTLINE FOR THE IPCC WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO
THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS
Summary for Policymakers
Technical Summary
1. Historical Overview of Climate Change Science
2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing
3. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change
4. Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground
5. Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level
6. Paleoclimate
7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry
8. Climate Models and their Evaluation
9. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
10. Global Climate Projections
11. Regional Climate Projections
1990
Geographic resolution
characteristic of the
generations of climate models
used in the IPCC Assessment
Reports: FAR (1990), SAR
(1996), TAR (2001), and AR4
(2007). The
1996
2001
2007
Chapter 1
The complexity of
climate models has
increased over the
last few decades.
This is shown
pictorially by the
different features of
the world included in
the models.
Chapter 1
Chapter 1
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Annual averages of the global mean sea level based on the reconstructed sea level fields
since 1870 (red curve, updated from Church and White, 2006) and on tide gauges
measurements since 1950 (blue curve, from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004). Units are in
mm. The blue curve has been shifted by 20 mm for clarity.
Chapter 5
Variations in global mean sea level computed from satellite altimetry from January 1993
to October 2005, averaged over 65°S-65°N. Dots are 10-day estimates (from
Topex/Poseidon satellite in red and Jason in green). The blue solid curve corresponds to
60-day smoothing and the straight line is the best fitting linear trend (of 2.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr
and 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr without and with the GIA correction). Updated from Cazenave and
Nerem (2004) and Leuliette et al. (2004).
Chapter 5
Estimates of the various contributions to the budget of the global mean sea level change compared
with the observed rate of rise for 1961–2003 (blue) and 1993–2003 (red). The bars represent 95%
errors. The errors of the separate terms have been combined in quadrature to obtain the error on
their sum.
Chapter 5
Time-series of global mean sea level in the past and future, relative to zero in 2001. For the period before
1870, we do not have global measurements of sea level. The solid line here is a climate model calculation
(Gregory et al., 2006) of sea level change due to natural factors (volcanic and solar variability) and
anthropogenic factors; the rather sudden fall early in the 19th century is mainly due to the eruption of Tambora
in 1815. The grey shading shows the uncertainty on the estimated long-term rate of sea level change. We
show a reconstruction of global mean sea-level from tide gauges (Church and White, 2006, Section 5.5.2.1) for
1870-2001, with uncertainties shown by shading, and from satellite altimetry (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004,
Section 5.5.2.2) for 1993–2004, both as annual means. For the future we indicate the range of uncertainty due
to different choices of emission scenarios. Beyond 2100 the projections are increasingly dependent on the
scenario. Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres
Chapter 6
Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century
is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were
significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago),
reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.
Chapter 6
Chapter 6
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 7
Chapter 7
Forçante natural+antropogenica
Forçante natural
Decadal mean global near surface temperatures over the 20th century from observations (black), and
showing the approximate 5–95% range from IPCC AR4 model simulations with natural and
anthropogenic forcings (red). Also shown is the corresponding temperature range when models are
driven by natural forcings only (blue). Temperature anomalies are centred relative to the 1901–1997
mean.
Chapter 8
OBSV
Forçante natural+antropogenica
OBSV
Global mean temperature
anoamlies, as observed (black
line, HadCRUT2v, Parker et al.,
2004) and as modelled by a
range of climate models when the
simulations include (a) both
anthropogenic and natural
forcings and (b) natural forcings
only. The multimodel ensemble
mean is shown in grey, and
individual simulations are shown
in colour, with curves of the same
colour indicating different
ensemble members for the same
model.
Forçante natural
Chapter 9
Trends in observed and simulated temperature changes over the 1901–2005 (left
column) and 1979–2005 (right column) periods. Note scales are different between
columns.
Chapter 9
Comparison of IPCC AR4 C20C3M model simulations containing all forcings (red shaded regions) and
IPCC AR4 C20C3M model simulations containing natural forcings only (blue shaded regions) with the
Chapter 9
observed (HadCRUT2v, Parker et al., 2004)
Chapter 9
Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for the scenarios A2,
A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the plus/minus
one standard deviation range of individual model annual means. The number of AOGCMs run for a given
time period and scenario is indicated by the coloured numbers at the bottom part of the panel.
Chapter 10
Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming (surface air temperature change, in °C) for the scenarios
B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom), and three time periods, 2011–2030 (left), 2046–2065 (middle), and
2080–2099 (right). Stippling denotes regions where the multi-model ensemble mean exceeds the intermodel
standard deviation. Anomalies are given relative to the average of the period 1980–1999.
Chapter 10
Multi-model mean changes of surface air temperature (°C, left), precipitation (mm/day, middle), and sea level
pressure (hPa, right) for boreal winter (DJF, top) and summer (JJA, bottom). Changes are given for the
scenarios SRES A1B, for the period 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999. Stippling denotes areas where the
magnitude of the multi-model ensemble mean exceeds the inter-model standard deviation.
Chapter 10
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are
multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August
(right). White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled
areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change.
Chapter 10
Multi model mean changes in a) precipitation (mm/day), b) soil moisture content (%), c) runoff (kg/m2s), and d)
evaporation (mm/day). Note that “soil moisture content” is the best estimate of this quantity supplied by each
model, but calculations vary across models. Changes are given as annual means for the scenarios SRES A1B,
for the period 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999. Stippling denotes areas where the magnitude of the multimodel ensemble mean exceeds the inter-model standard deviation.
Chapter 10
Extremos climáticos
Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from nine global coupled climate models,
adapted from Tebaldi et al. (2006). a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the
annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (SRES B1), middle (SRES A1B),
and high (SRES A2) scenario. b) Changes of spatial patterns of precipitation intensity based on
simulations between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario. c) Globally
averaged changes in dry days (defined as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days). d)
changes of spatial patterns of dry days based on simulations between two 20-year means (2080–2099
minus 1980–1999) for the A1B scenario.
Chapter 10
Extremos climáticos
Chapter 10
Warming for Central
America, Amazonaz and
southern South American
regions for: 1900–2000 as
observed (black line) and
as simulated (red
envelope); and for 2001–
2100 as simulated for the
A1B emission scenario
(green envelope). The set
of AR4 AOGCM
simulations used for both
periods are only those
with all forcings in the 20th
century (eleven
simulations).
Chapter 11
DT
2080-99 A1B – 1980-99 20C3M
Numero De modelos
DP
2080-99 A1B – 1980-99 20C3M
2080-99 A1B – 1980-99 20C3M
2080-99 A1B – 1980-99 20C3M
Annual
DJF
JJA
Consensus AR4
GCM A1B
temperature and
precipitation
changes over
Central and South
America. Top row:
Annual mean,
DecemberJanuary-February,
and June-JulyAugust
temperature
change between
1980–1999 in the
20C3M simulations
and 2080-2099 in
A1B, averaged
over 21 models.
Middle row: same
for fractional
change in
precipitation.
Bottom row:
number of models
out of 21 that
project
precipitation to
increase.
Chapter 11
Chapter 11
SPM
SPM
SPM