Transcript Слайд 1 - Electronic publishing

Numerical modelling of possible
catastrophic climate changes
E.V. Volodin, N. A. Diansky, V.Ya. Galin, V.P. Dymnikov, V.N. Lykossov
Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow
Corresponding e-mail: [email protected]
Global ocean general circulation model as ocean component of the
climate system model: characteristics of global ocean circulation
simulated in experiments under IPCC scenarios.
COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GSM (INMCM3.0)
AGCM
Finite difference model has spatial resolution of 5° in longitude and 4° in latitude
and 21 levels in sigma-coordinates from the surface up to 10 hPa.
In radiation absorption of water vapour, clouds, CO2, O3, CH4, N2O, O2
and aerosol are taken into account. Solar spectrum is divided
by 18 intervals, while infrared spectrum is divided by 10 intervals.
Deep convection, orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag are
considered in the model. Soil and vegetation processes are taken into account.
Non-flux-adjusted coupling
OGCM:
Global ocean σ-model with resolution is 2.5°x2°x33 including sea ice
thermodynamics.
Coupling includes interactive river runoff.
The results of the experiments carried out according to IPCC scenario.
(Also presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
IPCC scenario of time evolution of CO2, CH4, N2O, SOL,VLC
Model climate in 20th century.
Global temperature anomaly in 1871-2000, 10-yr moving average
(thick line is observations, thin line is model)
Meridional heat transport averaged for 1980-1999.
Mean sea level evolution
Model climate in 20th century.
The first SVD modes of SLP (top) and SST (bottom) in the North Atlantic region
in winter for the model (left) and observations (right) for 1950-1999.
Model climate in 20th century: El-Nino reproducing.
Root mean square (RMS) of SST anomaly for
1950-1999. INMCM3.0.
Power spectra of SST anomaly in
Nino 3 region (5°N–5°S,150°W–90°W)
Climate changes according IPCC scenario A1B:
INMCM3.0 annual mean surface warming (surface air
temperature, in °C) for the A1B scenario 2080–2099.
Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming
(surface air temperature, in °C) for the A1B scenario
2080–2099. Stippling denotes where the multi-model
ensemble mean exceeds the intermodel standard
deviation.
ΔT
(2081-2100)–
(1981-2000)
DEC-FEB
JUN-AUG
Climate changes according IPCC scenarios:
Time series of globally averaged (left) surface warming (surface air temperature, in °C) and
(right) precipitation (in %) from the various IPCC models for the scenarios (top) A2, (middle) A1B
and (bottom) B1 scenario. Values are annual means, relative to the 1980–1999 average from the
corresponding 20th century simulations, with any linear trends in the corresponding control run
simulations removed. Shown in black are the multi-model (ensemble) mean series.
Climate changes according IPCC scenarios:
Projected global average sea level rise (m) due to thermal expansion during
the 21st century relative to 2000 under SRES scenarios a) A1B, b) A2 and c) B1.
September arctic sea ice area (106 km2) in control run (blue), 20c3m(green), B1
(yellow), A1B (orange) and A2 (red)
ΔT DJF
(2101-2200)(1901-2000)
ALL
MONTHS
WARM
MONTHS
COLD
MONTHS
ΔT JJA
ALL
MONTHS
WARM
MONTHS
COLD
MONTHS
ΔP/P
MAY-SEP
ALL
MONTHS
WET
MONTHS
DRY
MONTHS
Change of vegetation period length (top) and number of frost days (bottom)
(2081-2100) – (1981-2000) A1B
Change of maximum dry period, days (top) and number of days with P>10 mm
(2081-2100) – (1981-2000) A1B.
PERMAFROST
1981-2000
2081-2100 B1
2081-2100 A2