Transcript Diapositiva 1

1. The Limits to Growth. Report of the
Club of Rome
• The Club of Rome brings together
scientists, economists, businessmen,
international officials and heads of state
from all five continents.
Its mission is to seek the promotion of
stable economic growth and sustainable
development of mankind.
2. Projections and possible
consequences according to the IPCC
scenarios
• The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
• The IPCC issued a report in 2000 to establish
different scenarios that will help us understand the
changes or consequences of global warming
according to various models of development (to
know the predictions of the future)
Four models were established depending on the
economic, demographic and cultural will of people. These
models were named A1, A2, B1, B2.
Once we know the different
scenarios we can make predictions
for:
·Greenhouse gases and aerosols.
·Temperature.
·Rainfall.
·Extreme events.
·Thermohaline circulation.
·The snow and ice and seascape.
·The sea level.
3. Forecast exchange following the current
development model
The sea level.
• Most of the information given is not based on
current data because then it would be
different.
• Continuing emissions of greenhouse gases at
current rates or faster warming will intensify
and will give many changes in the global
climate system during the twenty-first century
• During the twenty-first century
maximum heat on Earth is expected
• Permafrost will melt causing havoc on
vegetation and animals that live there
• The report says it is likely
that the frequency of
extreme values and the
heat waves or intense
precipitation will increase.
In the future tropical stoms will posibly be
more intense, with maximum higher wind
speed and more frequent and abundant
rains.
The standards of wind, rain and temperature
are going to change.
• The man has made that
global warming and sea
level rise will continue for
centuries.
4. Estimated changes in the Canary
Islands
• In the Canary Islands the trend
towards desertification is intensely
expressed.
Tourism will be affected.
In the Canaries pollution is caused
mainly by transport.
• That’s why the islands are experiencing
climate changes such as the one we have
lived these days (February 2010).
The worst affected islands were Tenerife
and Gran Canaria.
5. Forecasts of changes for
the IPCC scenarios
1.
About the projections provided in temperature and sea level
by the end of the century, the Fourth IPCC Report states:
Making an average of temperatures according to stage the
temperature will increase the interval between 1.55 and 4.15
degrees.
2. Forecasts for precipitation is very likely to
increase at higher latitudes quantitatively,
decreasing in the subtropics
6. Possible consequences / impacts of
global changes planned
• Impacts on ecosystems:
Increasing temperatures will extinguish some species,
will change the function and structure of ecosystems
and the natural ecosystem synchrony.
• Impacts on the Water: We must consider
the impacts on the water are important
for all sectors and regions and drought
will increase in many places.
• Coastal impacts
• Impacts on industry,
settlements and society
•
Impacts on food:
Globally, food production
potential would increase if
the local average
temperature increases of
1 and 3 º C.
• Impacts on health:
• Malnutrition and the number of
deaths, illnesses and injuries
from extreme weather events
will grow.
• The increased burden of
diarrheal disease grow the
frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases due to increased
concentrations of ozone in low
urban areas.
• Climate change will also alter
the spatial distribution of certain
.infectious diseases
stems, sectors and regions especially affected
• Some systems, sectors and regions
are probably more affected than
others by climate change according to
the IPCC
7.1. Systems
and sectors:
1. Terrestrial
Ecosystems
2. Coastal
Ecosystems
3. Marine
Ecosystems
4. Water
resources
5. Agriculture
6. Coastal
systems
7. Human
Health
7.2. Regions:
1. The Arctic
2. Africa
3. Small islands
• Roberto Díaz
• Gorka Castaño
• Daniel Neira