Transcript welcoming the new millennium The Kiribati Islands and Global Warming: Gary DeBoer

The Kiribati Islands and Global Warming:
welcoming the new millennium
May 3, Kilgore Lions Club
Gary DeBoer
Associate Professor of Chemistry
LeTourneau University
April 2, 2007 Bill Wier on ABC News
Kiribati's President: 'Our Lives Are At Stake'
For the Islands of Kiribati, Global Warming Poses Immediate Dangers
(AP Photo)
The islands of Kiribati, located roughly 2,500 miles southwest of Hawaii, could
end up entirely underwater if global warming worries are realized.
For the people of Kiribati, global warming is not a distant, theoretical hazard. In
this remote nation of 33 islands, located in the central Pacific Ocean, the land is
disappearing one inch at a time, as ocean waves slowly creep inland.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=3002001&page=1
Initiated many questions about Kiribati and global warming
Japanese World War II remains, now
going under water.
Shoreline
infrastructure
damaged during
storm surges
As a father and husband, I hear the
heartfelt stories of my family.
As a scientist, I am trained to
be skeptical and to examine
the data.
What does the data say about
global temperature and sea level?
FIGURE SPM-3. Observed changes in (a)
global average surface temperature; (b)
global average sea
level rise from tide gauge (blue) and
satellite (red) data and (c) Northern
Hemisphere snow cover for
March-April. All changes are relative to
corresponding averages for the period
1961-1990. Smoothed
curves represent decadal averaged values
while circles show yearly values. The
shaded areas are the
uncertainty intervals estimated from a
comprehensive analysis of known
uncertainties (a and b) and from
the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1,
Figure 4.2 and Figure 5.13}
www.ipcc.ch FAR, Group 1
Temperature and sea
levels have increased
over the last 100 years.
Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse
gases appear to be the source of the
increased global temperatures.
The biggest contributor is CO2.
www.ipcc.ch FAR, Group 1
What about before 100 years ago?
What did climate look like then?
Looks fairly steady with an overall
cooling trend.
www.ipcc.ch TAR chapter 2, 2001
It has been warm
in the past.
And cold.
What about more
than thousands of
years, what of
global
temperatures
them?
Source: Mann et al., 1999, Environment Canada
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/posters/bc/bc_02_e.php
www.ipcc.ch TAR chapter 2, 2001
Strong correlations between
gases and temperature.
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/dp5/warm.htm
Correlation is lost over longer time periods
How good are our models and what of the future?
This figure, based on Meehl et al.
(2004), shows the ability of a
global climate model (the DOE
PCM [1]) to reconstruct the
historical temperature record and
the degree to which the
associated temperature changes
can be decomposed into various
forcing factors.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:
Climate_Change_Attribution.png
Climate models appear to be pretty
good for recent (100 ya) and distant
(100,000 ya) past.
Projections for
ocean
encroachment
by 2100.
Where will
all the people
go?
Economic Implications of Climate Change in Two Pacific Island Country locations. Case
illustrations of Tarawa, Kiribati and Viti Levu. Property of World Bank, 2000.
Prudent proposal – “no regret adaptation”
- limit (decrease) pollution on reef
- limit reef fishing
- increase rain water catchment
- explore immigration - evacuation
Similar ‘no regret’ adaptations that would seem prudent:
1. Automobiles
Increase CAFÉ standards (we did it before and it worked)
A current Prius hybrid burning E85 gets about 300 miles/gallon of fossil fuel.
Plug in hybrids would do even better.
decrease urban air pollution - ‘no regrets’
2. Housing, building codes
Many city building codes require more energy efficient constructions.
encourage LEED certified buildings.
Businesses and residents save on energy costs – ‘no regrets’
3. Electricity and power grid
Texas plans to build two new nuclear power stations
save coal and oil resources for other uses – eg plastics
reduce air pollutants (eg. sulfur and mercury) related to burning coal and oil
4. Long term urban planning and development
Think longterm for city planning, 50-100 years
coastal and transportation development
5. Pay attention to the developing world
Develop new economic markets for new technologies
What’s good for the world will be good for us
Bibliographic and other sources
www.ipcc.ch
www.epa.gov
www.letu.edu/chemphys
www.realclimate.org
[email protected]
903-233-3955