Transcript Climate Change - APAN Community

Theater Shaping with Allies & Partners:
Climate Change & Environmental Security
J. Scott Hauger, Ph.D.,
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu, HI, USA
Pacific Operational Science & Technology Conference
Honolulu, HI
March 19, 2012
“Climate change has the potential for
significant impacts on all three of the basic
elements important to national and
international security – defense, diplomacy,
and economics…. The most immediate effects
with the highest potential for instability will
come from the most vulnerable regions of the
world where the United States obtains vital
fuel and strategic mineral imports and
combats terrorism.”
“Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National
& International Security, “U.S. Defense Science Board.
Oct 2011, p. xiii.
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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The greenhouse effect
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Measured global temperature
Source: U.S. NASA. July 2010. Available at:
http://mapserver.gsfc.nasa.gov/gcmd-open/mmorahan/Surfacetemp18802010.gif
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Measured atmospheric CO2
Source: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Future scenarios
Source: U.S Environmental Protection Agency
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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Climate change and security
Climate Effects
Human Impacts
State Impacts
•Retreating
glaciers
•Freshwater
•Conflict over
resources, migration
•Thinning ice caps
•Natural disasters
•Rising sea level
•Tropical cyclones
•More floods
•More droughts
•Desertification
•Food production
•Disease
•Migration
•Increased stress on
weak governments
•Maritime
boundaries
•Exploitation by
extremists
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A complex system:
Climate change and other global trends
Deforestation
Urbanization
Economic
development
Land
degradation
Global
warming
Energy
Population
Pollution
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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Drought risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Flood risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Cyclone risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Sea level risks
http://grimstad.hia.no/puls/climatechange/graphics/bangladesh.jpg
Rising food prices
Source: UN FAO
Migration
Image source: Lisa Friedman. “Bangladesh: Where the Climate Exodus Begins”
“In 2010, more than 30 million people in Asia and the Pacific were displaced
by environmental disasters such as storms and floods... Climate change is
expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, bringing
about significant changes in migration patterns. This will pose a major threat
to the growth and security of Asia and the Pacific unless measures are taken
soon. ” -- Asian Development Bank. 15 Sep, 2011
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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U.S. security policy QDR 2010
“…climate change could have
significant geopolitical impacts around the
world, contributing to poverty, environmental
degradation, and the further weakening of
fragile governments. Climate change will
contribute to food and water scarcity, will
increase the spread of disease, and may spur
or exacerbate mass migration…. In some
nations, the military is the only institution
with the capacity to respond to a large-scale
natural disaster. Proactive engagement with
these countries can help build their capability
to respond to such events.”
Source: U.S. DoD. 2010.
Quadrennial Defense
Review. (February), pp. 845. Available at:
http://www.defense.gov/Q
DR/
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Mission:
To build a knowledge base
that informs human
responses to climate and
global change through
coordinated and integrated
federal programs of research,
education, communication,
and decision support
USGCRP Strategic Plan (Sep 2011)
• Shift from climate change perspective to one
of climate-related global changes.
• Better integrate social and ecological sciences
to inform decisions.
• Build an integrated observational system that
connects observations of the physical
environment with social and ecological
observations.
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Defense Science Board (DSB) report
(Oct 2011)
U.S. DoD needs:
• Comprehensive climate information system to
support operational assessments.
• To develop local expertise in civil engineering,
hydrology, energy, agriculture, land use &
Infrastructure planning so developing nations can
benefit from information.
• Better processes to coordinate & leverage U.S.
agency efforts.
• Better insights into activities of other countries &
international organizations.
DSB Findings: Role for DoD
• Build regional capabilities and alliances to
create climate change resilience.
• Prepare to respond to natural disasters.
• Assist foreign militaries to understand climate
change effects on force structure,
installations, and security situation.
• Build capacity for mitigation & adaptation.
DSB Findings: Role for COCOMs
• Identify regional early warning indicators.
• Include energy, food, water & disaster risk
reductions strategies in theater campaign plan.
• Conduct regional / local impact assessments.
• Include as Tier 1 objective, enhancing host nation
military and civil readiness groups to respond to
natural disasters.
• Integrate climate-change related aspects into
exercises.
DSB: A technology need
“Geoengineering nonproliferation may become a
real threat over the coming
decades. The risk suggests a
potential need for a U.S.
research activity focused on
improving process
understanding in areas that
otherwise might not receive
prioritization…. It could also
drive the need for sustained
monitoring systems to detect
evidence of unilateral
geoengineering activity…”
Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Observations & conclusions.
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Observations & conclusions
• Climate-related global change is an A-P security issue.
• Its complexity requires new kinds of interagency and
international collaboration & knowledge exchange.
• Operational agencies need better scientific
knowledge to manage emerging security problems.
• Civil sector opportunities include:
– Need for regional, comprehensive climate info system
– Better models to link climate, environment, societal
impacts
– Need to train developing nation agencies
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QUESTIONS?
Image source:
Risk
Management
Monitor
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Backup slides
U.S. security policy QDDR 2010
“Rapid
industrial advancement
around the globe is likely to fuel further
changes in our shared climate, which
could have a devastating impact on
both humans and the natural
environment. The impact of climate
change will likely constrain our own
economic well-being and may result in
conflicts over resources, migrant and
refugee flows, drought and famine, and
catastrophic natural disasters.”
Source: U.S. State Dept. 2010.
Quadrennial Diplomacy &
Development Review, p. 12.
Available at: www.state.gov/qddr
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NRC review of USGCRP strategic plan
• Strongly endorses proposed directions.
• Questions USGCRP and its member agencies’
ability to achieve the proposed broadening of
the program:
– Insufficient expertise,
– Lack of clear mandate.
• USGCRP needs an overall governance
structure with responsibility and resources
needed to broaden the program.
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DSB: A science need
“Compared to more gradual
climate change scenarios,
the potential for tipping
point events presents
additional needs for climate
observations (monitoring for
early warning signs), models
(non-linear processes)and
risk assessment processes
(managing longtail threats).
These are needs that may
not receive the priority they
deserve.”
Image source: Celsias.com
Pre-Conference Survey
2. What policy/investment approach should governments prioritize in order to
most effectively contend with the security effects of climate change?
Adaptation strategies aimed to
mitigate climate change effects
35.4%
Minimize atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations through
emissions control and improved
agricultural and forestry practices
28.0%
Geo-engineering strategies to
change atmospheric content
9.8%
Adopt a wait and see approach
owing to inconclusive nature of
climate science
26.8%