Change in crop suitability indicator

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Transcript Change in crop suitability indicator

The physical impacts of
climate change
Professor Nigel Arnell
University of Reading
Funded by
Outline of presentation
Impacts in the AVOID programme
Overview of assessment methodology
Early results: global and regional scales
Conclusions and implications
Impacts in the AVOID programme
What (and where) are the “dangerous” impacts
that we need to avoid?
What impacts are avoided by specific climate
mitigation objectives?
How does adaptation affect the impacts under
different mitigation objectives?
Overview of methodology
“Level 1”
Combine ‘damage functions’ with estimates of global
temperature change
Overview of methodology
“Level 2”
Run spatial impacts models with spatial climate scenarios
Illustrative temperature trajectories
Example impact indicators
Exposure to change in water resources stress
Population in watersheds with <1000 m3/capita/year with a
significant change in runoff
Average annual number of people flooded
People affected by river floods greater than baseline 30-year flood
Change in suitability of cropland for farming
Change in crop suitability indicator
Change in cooling energy requirements
Residential cooling energy requirements
Global impacts in 2050: A1b
HadGEM
Global impacts in 2100: A1b
HadGEM
Global impacts in 2100: 2o world
HadGEM
Change over time
Change over time
Regional impacts in 2050: A1b
HadGEM
Regional impacts in 2100: A1b
HadGEM
Regional impacts in 2100: 2o world
HadGEM
Summary
Impacts at the global scale estimated using
generalised impacts models
Assessments give broad indications of
magnitude and locations of impact
Achieving a 2oC pathway reduces and delays
the impacts of climate change – but the effect
varies between sectors and places