Transcript Habitat-based replacement costs

Estimating Potential Impacts
of Climate Change
on the Park City Ski Area
Brian Lazar
Stratus Consulting Inc.
[email protected]
Mark Williams
University of Colorado
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
[email protected]
Objective: Evaluate Future
Changes in Climate
 Park City Ski Area
 Years
 2030
 2075
 2100
 Climate
 Air temperature
 Precipitation
Climate Analysis Approach
Emission
scenarios
- IPCC
Climate
response
modeling
- General
circulation
models (GCMs)
Scale to
Park City
- MAGICC/SCENGEN
- Statistical
downscaling
- Dynamic downscaling
- Regional
climate models
(RCMs)
Estimate
effects on
snow
- SRM
- Snow depth
Climate Change
 “Climate change” refers
broadly to any changes in
climate (air temp, precip)
 Here we focus on potential
climate change caused by
human emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHG)
 Carbon dioxide
 Nitrous oxide
 Methane
Recent Changes in Climate in
the Park City Region
U.S. Air Temperatures Have
Increased over the 20th Century
 Warming in the US is
concentrated in the
mountain areas of the
west.
 The western US has
warmed about 2°F in the
last five years compared
to the last 100 years.
Source: Dr. Martin Hoerling,
NOAA, Boulder, CO.
ALTA: Annual air temperatures
(1970-2006)
Temperature (degrees F)
Alta Temperature (1970-2006)
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y = 0.0398x - 31.256
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y = 0.082x - 134.2
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1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Year
 Max air temperatures show no trend
 Min temperatures are increasing about 0.8°F/decade
Summary of Annual Air Temperature
Trends in the Park City Region
1. All weather stations show a warming trend for
daily minimum temperatures (ranging from 0.05°
to 1.6°F/decade)
2. No trend in daily maximum temperatures
3. Troubling: snowmaking depends on cold nighttime air temperatures
Rising CO2 Will Lead to Accelerated
Rise in Air Temperature
Different Climate Scenarios
Three CO2 warming scenarios
 Business as usual (AIB)
 Green scenario (BI)
 Worst-case scenario (AIF1)
Three different years for each CO2 scenario
 2030: normal business projection
 2070: threshold for large effects?
 2100: long-term
5 x 5° Grid Boxes Near Park City
300 miles
on a side
RCM box
20 miles on
a side
Model vs. Observed Current
(2000) Temperatures
Modeled vs. Observed Current (2000) Temperature
for the Central Rockies
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Temperature (degrees Celcius)
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 Brian, can you add the observed
line as an animation? Also, double
the thickness of that line Remove
shapes on lower right.
CSI2D2
ECH3D2
ECH4D2
HAD2D2
HAD3D2
Model
Average
Observed
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Projections of Climate Change
Annual Climate Changes in 2030:
Business as Usual CO2 Scenario
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 All GCMs show warming
of 3-4°F
 Little variability in
temperature
 Higher variability in
precipitation
 GCM average
precipitation decreases
by 7%
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Precipitation change, %
2030
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Temperature change, degrees C
Annual climate changes by GCM, A1B scenario
Summary of Projected Climate
Change in 2030
Temperatures are projected to rise
 GCMs project a 3° to 4°F rise
 Little variability among models
 Little variability among CO2 scenarios
 Adds confidence to interpretation
 Warming most pronounced during the
summer
Precipitation changes are uncertain
 there is high variability across the GCMs
Potential Climate Changes in 2075:
Business as Usual CO2 Scenario
Temperature change, degrees C
Annual climate changes by GCM, A1B scenario
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 All GCMs show warming
of 8° to 9.4°F
 Little variability in
temperature
 Much higher variability in
precipitation
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Precipitation change, %
2075
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Summary of Projected Climate
Change in 2075
 Temperatures are projected to rise
 GCMs project a rise of 7.6° to 11.3°F depending on
emission scenario
 Warming most pronounced during the summer
 Precipitation changes are uncertain
 Although most models show a decrease (about 10 to
15% on average), there is high variability across the
GCMs
 Precipitation patterns show strong seasonality with
slightly wetter winters and much drier summers
Potential Climate Changes in 2100:
Business as Usual CO2 Scenario
Temperature change, degrees C
Annual climate changes by GCM, A1B scenario
2100
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Precipitation change, %
 More warming: All GCMs
show warming of 9.5° to
11.2°F
 Continued variability in
precipitation
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Temperature change,
degrees
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Temperature
change,
degrees C
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Potential Climate Changes in 2100:
Business
as Usual, Worst
2075
A1FI Case and
A1B Scenarios
Best Case CO
B1 2
September value for A1B is assumed
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2100
February value for
A1FI is assumed
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September value for A1B is assumed
Annual averages
B1:
8.5°F
A1B: 10.4°F
A1FI: 15.2°F
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2100
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February value for
A1FI is assumed
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A1FI
A1B
B1
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Warming most
pronounced in
summer
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Bad CO2 scenario almost twice as “hot” as best
September value for A1B is assumed
case CO2 scenario
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Summary of Projected Climate
Change in 2100
Same as for 2075, except warmer
Different CO2 scenarios have a large effect on
air temperature by 2100:
 These differences in future air temperatures
have a large effect on snow at Park City in
2100
Climate Change
Projections Summary
 Today; Now: It’s getting hotter
 Night temps 2-3F warmer than in 1970
 2030: warms another 3-4F
 Little difference among CO2 scenarios
 2070: large increases in air temp
 CO2 scenarios make a difference
 2100: even larger increases in air temp
 CO2 scenarios make even larger difference
 Precip: highly variable, not much confidence
Climate Change
Bottom Line
 It’s not gloom and doom
 Continues to get gradually warmer
 Really large change is 50 to 70 years in future
 CO2 scenarios have a large effect then
 What the world does with CO2 emissions today
matters to your grand-children in 50 years
 Caveat: These are deviations from average conditions
 Science at this time is unable to deal with changes in
the frequency of unusual years: droughts, large
snow years, etc