Transcript PowerPoint Sunusu

International Workshop on Rescue and Digitization of
Climate Records in the Mediterranean Basin
28-30 November, 2007, Tarragona, Spain
Serhat Sensoy
Presentation plan
Definitions
Questionnaire results
Historical climate records in Ottoman
Empires
Natural proxy sources
Tree-rings, Dendrochronology of Anatolia
Speleothem Caves, ENVNET project
Climate Change Detection Studies
DARE activities in Turkey
Conclusion
Data Rescue (DARE) Project
The Data Rescue (DARE) project is aimed at assisting countries in the management, preservation and use
of climatic data over their own territories. DARE commits to microfilm and microfiche, and eventually to
digital media through CLICOM and other means, the original written manuscript records which may date
back more than 100 years and in many cases are in danger of deteriorating and of being lost. The
DARE project in Africa, funded primarily by Belgium, dates back to 1979 and the Belgium-supported
phase was terminated in mid 1997. It has resulted in more than five million documents from more than
30 countries being saved on microfilm. In 1995 a DARE project began in the Caribbean with funding
support from Canada.
New DARE strategy
In the mid-1990´s, technological advancements made it possible to optically scan climate data as a new
method of creating digital climate archives. This technology permits the data not only to be preserved,
but also to be in a form for exchange via computer media. However, it is now recognized that these data
must be moved into digital databases for use in analyses and climate change studies. Optically
scanning images certainly preserves the data and is a major improvement over hard copy media, but
placing the data in full digital usable form will make it accessible to many more.
An International Data Rescue meeting (September 2001, Geneva) re-defined Data Rescue as :
An ongoing process of preserving all data at risk of being lost due to deterioration of the medium, and the
digitization of current and past data into computer compatible form for easy access.
This definition implies that:
1. Data should be stored as image files onto media that can be regularly renewed to prevent the
deterioration of the medium (cartridges, CDs, DVDs etc.)
2. Data should be key-entered in a form that can be used for analyses.
New data rescue projects are being implemented in many countries (Vietnam, Rwanda, Jamaica, Honduras)
A DARE questionnaire has been prepared and sent to all GCOS focal
point of the eastern Mediterranean countries in order to learn their
status.
Countries DARE questionnaire sent
From: Serhat Sensoy
Georgia
To: Dr Nato Kutaladze ;
Armenia
Hamlet Melkonyan ;
Iran
Fatemeh Rahimzadeh ;
Azerbaijan
[email protected];
Bulgaria
[email protected];
[email protected]; Russia
Greece
[email protected] ;
[email protected] ; U.A.E.
Syria
[email protected] ;
[email protected] ;S.Arabia
[email protected] ; Libya
Lebanon
[email protected];
[email protected] ; Jordan
Israel
[email protected] ;
Yemen
[email protected];
Iraq
[email protected] ;
Egypt
[email protected] ;
[email protected]; Cyprus
Bahrein
[email protected] ;
Turkey
[email protected]
Sent: Wednesday, October
10, 2007 1:47 PM
Subject: DARE Questionnaire
Only 6 countries filled the questionnaire.
Responded countries (6)
Not responded countries (14)
Questionnaire results
DARE information Turkey
U.A.E
Jordan
Data entry software MetDas
CLDB
CDMS
Georgia
Persona
Miss
Data management Informix
Starting Year of
Observation
1842
Starting year of
digitization
1926
Oracle
Oracle
Oracle
RDBMS
Informix
1936
1925
1844
1846
1936
1951
1881
1948
1920
1929 R,
1944 T
% of digitized data
Need to not digitized
data
Name of
Respondent
75-100%
75-100%
75-100%
25-50%
75-100%
50-75%
Yes
Serhat
Sensoy
No
Yes
Yes
Mohammad Nato
Semawi
Kutaladze
Uaemet
Israel
IMS
Software
Libya
CLICOM +
Excel
DataEase
Yes
Yes
Khalid
Avner
Furshpan elfadli
Climate records to be recovered -Turkey
Climate records to be recovered –Georgia
Climate records to be recovered –Israel
Climate records to be recovered –Libya
Historical records from Ottoman Empires
 The measurement of temperature for Istanbul were firstly published in 1842
in the newspaper “ Ceride-i Havadis”. This measurements were performed
by the foreign volunteers (Oguz, A., 2007).
 Official observation was started in 1868 in the Observatoire Imperial
Meteorologique de Constantinapole. French Records from 1868-1897 were
including monthly pressure, Tmax, Tmin, precipitation and daily max prec.,
wind speed and direction, RH%, N.of rainy, snowy, foggy, lightning day
 Ottoman records (3 climate books) from 1896-1901, 1901-1907,1907-1914
(daily record) They are including wind speed and direction, Precipitation,
Humidity, Temperature and Pressure daily data
 German records during the 1st World War collected at “Zum Klima der
Turkei” (1915-1918)
 Records from Kandilli Observatory (1926-1936)
 Turkish State Meteorological Service from 1937-
Historical records from Ottoman Empires
Some early climate records in Turkey started around 1840 in the school, hospital,
embassy, by some volunteers like scientist, engineer, priest etc. These
observations were not been continuous form and most of them were not been
saved carefully.
First scientific observation was started in 1856 by Ritter (engineer) in Bosporus
observation park which regularly installed 6m above sea level and 2m surface
temperature shield.
Another observation was carried out by Mr. William Henri Lyne from 1865-1886.
This man lived 30 years in Haydarpasa, Istanbul as a guard of English cemetery.
This man performed observation in his house garden and observed rainfall, max
and min temperature and wind. He recorded them in a book and sent to London.
In August, 1841 Ceride-i Havadis newspaper has started to give information about
temperature of Istanbul and also give some information on how temperature can
measure, what is summer temperature in S. Arabia (28-30ºC) and winter
temperature in Petersburg (-30 ºC) and Siberia (-40ºC) in order to improve public
opinion about climate.
Istanbul Temperature in 1841
by Ceride-i Havadis
Istanbul Temperature comparison
25
15
10
5
1841-1842
u
Ag
ly
Ju
n
Ju
ay
M
r
Ap
ar
M
Fe
b
n
Ja
pt
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Se
u
0
Ag
Temp C
20
1941-1942
CERİDE-İ HAVADİS 158.H./17 Za. 1259-M/09 Dec. 1843 by Oguz A., 2007
German records during 1st World War
Some of the pressure data are already presented and available in ACRE Project
at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Pressure/ from Rob Allan)
and http://www.hadobs.com/
Istanbul (EMULATE) 1866-1880 [daily] (Hadley Centre) 1847-1848; 1854
[monthly] (ADVICE/CRU, UEA, Phil Jones) 1856-present [monthly],
İzmir (Hadley Centre, Rob Allan) 1864-1873; 1890-1899; 1906-1994 (gaps)
[monthly]
Paleoclimatology - The Study of Ancient Climates
How do we reconstruct climate?
• Tree Rings
• Glacial Ice Cores
• Ocean Sediments - The ratio of
oxygen 16 to oxygen 18 preserved in
the steady rain of dead organisms.
• Radiocarbon dates of organic material
• Pollen samples found in packrat
middens and lake bed samples.
• Variations in desert varnish coatings
found on rocks in the arid southwest
• Variations found in peatbog deposits
• Sedimentary rock records.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html
Tree Rings
• How does a tree produce annual
rings?
• There are two main types of ring
producing trees. The primary
cellular component of tree rings
is the tracheid. Tracheids are
long tubular cells that make up
the xylem. Tracheids formed in
the beginning of the growing
season are thick walled and low
in density. These cells constitute
what is called the earlywood. As
the end of the growing season
nears, climate conditions become
less conducive and growth slows.
Tracheids become darker and
more thin-walled, forming the
latewood. Finally, when the
growth season ends, there is a
marked boundary at the edge of
the ring
What is Dendrochronology?
• Dendrochronology is tree-ring dating.
• Simply stated, trees grow two ring
per calendrial year. For the entire
period of a tree's life, a year-by-year
record or ring pattern is formed that
in some way reflects the climatic
conditions in which the tree grew.
These patterns can be compared and
matched ring for ring with trees
growing in the same geographical
zone and under similar climatic
conditions. Following these tree-ring
patterns--the sum of which we refer
to as chronologies--from living trees
back through time, we can thus
compare wood from old or ancient
structures to our known chronologies,
match the ring patterns (crossdating), and determine precisely the
age of the wood used by the ancient
builder.
Dendrochronological Dating in Anatolia:
The Second Millennium BC
(Kuniholm, I. P. et all,)
Speleothem (Cave Deposit) Data
• Speleothems are mineral
deposits formed from
groundwater within
underground caverns.
Stalagmites, stalactites, and
other forms may be annually
banded or contain
compounds which can be
radiometrically dated.
Thickness of depositional
layers or isotopic records can
be used as climate proxies.
A multi-disciplinary research
project (ENVNET) is
investigating environmental
change in Northeast Turkey.
Details are representing at
http://www.gees.bham.ac.uk/research/ENVNET/
prec.
p.
Indices Plots
Locally weighted regression
Linear (least square) fit
Kendall’s tau based slope estimator has been used to compute the trends since this
method doesn’t assume a distribution for the residuals and is robust to the effect of
outliers in the series.
If slope error greater than slope estimate we can’t trust slope estimate.
If PValue is less than 0.05 this trend is significant at 95% level of confidence This
indices show that frost days will be decreasing 26.8 days in 100 years.
Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices Studies
RClimDex
• After the reconstruction
of past climate data, it
will be possible to run
RClimDex software to
produce climate indices
and to detect climate
change from historic time
to the present. One study
has undertaken for the
Middle East and
published at:
• http://www.agu.org/pubs/c
rossref/2005/2005JD0061
81.shtml
Middle East Climate Indice Study, 4-9 October, 2004 Alanya, Turkey
Warm days and
warm nights have
been increasing in
most the stations.
Filled triangles
represent that trends
are significant at 95%
level.
http://www.agu.org/pu
bs/crossref/2005/200
5JD006181.shtml
Turkey Climate Indices Studies
Example of
a modern
data
analyzing&
monitoring
facility (GIS)
Most of the outputs showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are
increasing; number of frost days, ice days and cool nights are decreasing,
while number of summer days and warm nights are increasing. The results
show that in general, there are large coherent patterns of warming over the
Turkey. The maximum one-day precipitation amounts increases even where
mean annual precipitation declines. But there is a much more mixed pattern
of change in precipitation.
TURKEY STATION NETWORK
Turkish Digitized Data
 All the daily and monthly climate data (260 stations)
have been digitized from 1926 to today. They are quality
controlled from 1975 All Upper air data (7 stations) have been digitized from
1985 All AWOS minutely data (210 stations) are been stored
automatically from 2002 All Rainfall Intensity data (250 station) have been stored
from 1993 Satellite and Radar data have been stored from 2003 NWP data have been stored from 2006
 Forecast bulletin have been stored from 2001
(still needs to scan from 1968)
DARE Activities in Rainfall Record
In Turkey there are 250 stations which have
pluviograph. Rainfall intensity analysis is
very important to digitize these data from
diagrams for flood forecasting and agro
meteorological studies. This analyze had
been done manually up to 1993. Sometimes
this task was taking 2-3 hours. Now, by using
digitizer and software, analyze time reduced
2-5 minutes. Program saves hourly rainfall
intensity data for further needs.
Screen output
Intensive Rainfall Records
This program calculates
intensive rainfall amount for
standard given time. If
rainfall amount is equal or
higher than I = √5*t - (t/24)²
formula result, then this is
called intensive rainfall. For
example if t = 10 minutes in
above formula, I will be 7.1
mm. Program searches each
pixel and finds maximum
rainfall for each standard
time, and indicates intensive
rainfall.
l;
42
;1
To
rn
ad
o;
Ha
i
1;
0
4%
%
Dr
ou
gh
t;
5;
2%
Fl
oo
d;
69
;2
2%
St
or
m
;1
36
;
nc
he
; 1 Fro
; 0 st
% ; 38
;
Li 12%
gh
tn
in
g;
7;
H.
2%
Sn
ow
;1
2;
4%
44
%
Av
al
a
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN 2006
Storm
Tornado
Hail
Drought
Flood
Avalanche
Frost
Lightning
H.Snow
Conclusion
• In order to detect historical climate values and their
DARE activities, a questionnaire has been prepared and
sent to eastern Mediterranean countries. Although five
countries replied this request (Turkey, Georgia, Jordan,
U.A.E., Israel), it is clear that there are many historical
sources need to recover and digitize. Also many
countries have expressed their intention to rescue of
their data but they mentioned some constraints and they
need help from WMO and other international
organizations. Turkey, Georgia, Jordan, U.A.E. and
Israel have historical climate values from 1842, 1844,
1925, 1936 and 1846 respectively and some of the
values are still waiting for digitization.
Conclusion cont.
 Long term climate records (instrumental and proxy) are very important
values for climate analysis, climate change detection, mitigation and
adaptation studies.
 There are explored and unexplored historical records in eastren
Mediterranean countries. But only a few people are aware of them.
Authorities must be aware and consider of them in order to rescue and
serve them to the public benefit.
 50 years Ottoman Empires climate records ( 1868-1918) need to be
translated and digitized. It must be start a project to digitize historical
values. European 6th framework project (MACE) included this task as WP
4.5. This project passed all evaluation but not approved yet as financially
 Paleo sources also can give very important information about ancient
climate and possibilty to compare with present.
 Prof Kuniholm, P., et all spend 30 years in Turkey and they have produced
very valuable Anatolia Dendrochronology Database which is worth of
appreciation.
 Turkey has more than hundreds of Speleothem caves which need to be
study
 After the reconstruction of past climate data, it will be possible to run
RClimDex software to generate climate indices and to detect climate
change from historic time to the present.
Serhat SENSOY
[email protected]
Tel
:+90(312) 302 24 57
Fax
:+90(312) 361 23 71