Turkish Accession
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Transcript Turkish Accession
Turkish EU Accession.
Short-term Threats vs. Long-term Opportunities
Presented by:
Emil Iliev
Kiril Kostov
Lyubomir Vankov
Background
1987 – Turkey applied for accession to the
EU
1999 – Turkey became a candidate
country
2005 – Start of official negotiations for
Turkish entry
Negotiations expected to take 10-15 years
Europe is far too short-sighted
GDP Per Capita
Lowest GDP
Per Capita
Mass
immigration
into Europe
Flood of
labor
markets
Lower real
wages in
Europe
Demographics
72.6 Million
Almost
equal to
2004
Enlargement
99% Muslim
– will
change
religious
balance
within the
EU from 3%
to 20%
Muslim
Unemployment
10.2%
Unemploym
ent
Highest
after Poland
and Slovakia
Coupled
with large
population –
will flood EU
with poor
labor
Geopolitics
Only 3% of
Turkey is
geographica
lly in Europe
Does not
include
Ankara
Will extend
EU border
to Syria,
Iraq, Iran,
Armenia,
Georgia
YES to Turkish Accession
Turkey Reforms
1999 – National Programme for the Adoption of
the EU Acquis
Abolition of death penalty
Expanded freedom of expression
Curtailment of power of military
Release of political prisoners
More freedom for the use and study of Kurdish
Looking for solution to Cyprus
Turkey is an important ally
NATO member since 1952
Pro-Western and increasingly democratic
Full support for the “war on terror”
Contributed to military and peacekeeping
actions on the Balkans and Afghanistan
EU should use its leverage to export its
values to Turkey
The EU Needs Turkey
To increase its leverage as a normative
power
To further its value-driven policies
To obtain a critical strategic partner
“ to modernize an Islamic country based on the
shared values of Europe would almost be a DDay
for Europe in the war against terror,
[because it] would provide real proof that Islam
and modernity, Islam and the rule of law . . .
[and] this great cultural tradition and human
rights are after all compatible”
Joschka Fischer – German Foreign Minister until 2005
“the accession of Turkey would be proof that
Europe is committed not just in word but in deed
to a Europe of diverse races, cultures, and
religions all bound together by common rules and
a sense of human solidarity and mutual respect.”
Tony Blair – UK Prime Minister
Turkey as a Strategic Partner
Large Army – 400000 standing troops
Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and
Caucasus-Caspian Region
Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, eastern
Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian Region
Turkey Membership – more confident and
expansive EU policy in the region
Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and
foreign policy experience in dealing with the
Middle East
Major Growth Market
Rapidly modernizing
economy
7 % growth >
average EU growth
$17.1 billion FDI in
2006
$86 billion exports
Less textile, more
electronic exports
Turkish Foreign Trade
EU
Countries
$87.1
46,3%
53,7%
BILLION
$101.3
BILLION
Total $188.4 BILLION
Other
Countries
Energy Crossroad
Crucial for
EU future
energy
security
Positioned
near all
major
oil & gas
areas
Solution to
EU demographic Crisis
Young, educated Turkish
labor force
EU showing future deficit
parallel to aging population
High future EU demand for
Turkish workers
Other Economic Benefits
Already highly integrated economy shared
Customs Union with EU
Potential logistics centre in trade between
EU and the Caucasus, Middle Asia and the
Middle East
High consumption behavior
“Absorption Capacity”
If EU could take 10 new states at a
single time, with overall population of
110 million, than Turkey with its 75
million should NOT be a problem as
continuously stated.
Nothing about Size or
Relative Wealth in
the Copenhagen Criteria
Thank You
for the
Attention