Transcript Talk 5 - Climate assessment and emerging data

Climate Assessment and
Emerging Data Rescue
Initiatives
Manola Brunet1,2,3 and Phil Jones2
1 Centre for Climate Change (C3), Univ. Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona,
Spain
2 Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
3 Co-chair OPAG 2 on Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Variability
and Change, WMO/CCl
Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 16
February 2010, Antalya, Turkey
OUTLINE
Why is important to develop highquality climate data?
 Benefits for climate assessments
 Some ongoing & emerging DARE
initiatives
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Why is important to develop
high-quality climate data?
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If we knew which models were accurate, we could predict
the future more exactly
If we knew really well the climate in the last 1000 years, we
would know which models were accurate
If we knew much better the climate of the past 200 years,
we would know more precisely the climate of the last 1000
years
Availability of good historical weather observations
constrain the past and the future. Therefore the
answer is:
to better understand, detect, predict and respond
to global climate variability and change
Placing climate records and
extremes in the longer context
Detecting and attributing
changes in climate extremes
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
2060s
2040s
2003
Summer 2003:
normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s
Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1
Schar et al.
2004., Nature,
Longer records for the
assessment of proxy evidence
Some thoughts on previous,
ongoing and emerging DARE
activities & results
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Previous efforts over Africa haven’t led to much data being
digitised/released. In South America and the Caribbean DARE
activities have been better, but it’s hardly to see any result
Some European countries are digitising/homogenising their
holdings. Other countries like US, Canada, Australia, Japan, China
are also digitising data as part from cooperative efforts (NMHS +
Academia). But it’s important to get countries like India & Brazil
joining the effort
Getting more publicity (and raising awareness) for DARE results
(projects) is a crucial issue (ACRE is doing well on this)
Analysis of DARE cost/benefit should go along with proposals to
emphasise benefits. DARE has initial expenses, but once a climate
record is rescued/developed only return benefits, not costs
Making recovered data available and improving accessibility, it is
another imperative
But getting resources (funds) for DARE projects is not easy, as
research funding Agencies are not keen to fund them (this is a NMS
stuff). So, you have to offer/emphasise research’s products in the
proposals you make
Potential of climate data versus data
availability: still considerable room
for DARE activities
DWD efforts
International DARE ongoing projects:
Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions
over the Earth (ACRE)
Observed climate at the moment
Facilitate the recovery of historical instrumental
surface terrestrial and marine global data for
climate applications and impacts needs
worldwide
Observed climate after ACRE
ACRE & the 20th century Reanalysis
project: the usefulness of DARE
September 1938 New England
To underpin global historical 4D weather reanalyses over the last
200-250 years, at high resolution (2º x 2º lat/lon & every 6 hours)
using surface pressure data & state-of-the-art scientific capabilities.
The product can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for: regional to local
climate applications (e.g. agricultural, environmental, societal,
physical), climate impacts (e.g. risk of high impact phenomena),
direct weather input into biophysical and production models or to
constrain global climate models
Emerging DARE Initiatives: The
WMO MEditerranean climate DAta
REscue (MEDARE) initiative
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A cooperative & integrated DARE initiative, endorsed by the WMO EC-60,
bringing together scientists from NMHS, universities and research centres
& aimed at
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Enhancing surface climate data availability over the GMR, which allow the
countries and region to improve climate change scenarios & impacts
assessments to define better strategies for adaptation
Undertaking integrated DARE projects targeting the development of long &
homogenised key climate records
Capacity building on DARE, digitisation and the development of high-quality
climate datasets, including homogenisation: DARE & H
Composed of 23 Med NMHS, 11 research ctr & integrated by 100 scientists
MEDARE II
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Steering Group: Pierre Bessemoulin, Manola Brunet, Phil Jones, Sylvie
Jourdain, Tania Marinova, Serhat Sensoy, Azzadine Sazi, Elena Xoplaki
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Working groups:
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WG1. Inventorying/assessing/approaching old material sources and
holders.
WG2. DARE techniques and procedures (including digitization).
WG3. Approaches on best practices for quality controlling and
homogenizing specific climate variables.
WG4. Promotional activities, bringing MEDARE to the wider scientific
and other communities
A Dutch-Indonesian initiative to
rescue, digitize and disseminate
data: The DiDaH project
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Project structure:
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International workshop in
WMO’s DARE and Climate
Extremes programs (Dec
2009) Digitisation of historical
data from Indonesia at BMKG
(Jan. 2010 - fall 2011): 35
man-years ca. 10M obs.
Exchange of experts between
KNMI & BMKG
Five-day Climate Services
workshop in Indonesia to
advertise results & stimulate
use (end 2011)
A combination of activities
leading to improve data
availablity