Transcript Slide 1

RICCI – Task Force Kick-off
May 7th 2009
DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION
Objective and Phases of the
Project
Objective
NERC has recognized the continental scope of Climate Change
legislation, and because many of the variables impact reliability on a
continental scale, it is vital that NERC, as the industry’s sponsor for bulk
power system reliability, identify reliability considerations of Climate
Change Initiatives.
Project
PHASE I
Provide a high level view of
reliability considerations for
Climate Change issues and
will identify and categorize
technical reliability
considerations
Scope of NERC-Accenture work
PHASE II
Conduct a technical assessment of
North America, building on the
results from the Phase I report,
performing reliability assessments
of the bulk power system for
selected scenarios
NERC next phase
Scope and Conceptual Framework
of Analysis (Phase I & Phase II)
Climate Change
Initiatives /
Scenarios &
Technology
Changes
Current NA Bulk
Power System
External/New
Drivers
Future NA Bulk
Future
NA
Future
NABulk
Bulk
Power
System
Power
PowerSystem
System
(Scenarios)
Evolution
Baseline Evolution:
Demand, Supply,
T&D Investment,
Standards, …
Criteria / Dimensions of Analysis
Reliability
Security
Technology
Investment
Regulation, …
Phase II
Continuity
Phase 1 – Proposed Timeline
PHASE I
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
DATA COLLECTION
DATA SYNTHESIS
SCENARIO CREATION
AND EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
DATA SYNTHESIS AND
SCENARIO ITERATIONS
Milestones
Project Kick-off
April 27th
Stakeholder Kick-off
May 7th
First Draft Provided for
Stakeholder Review
Proposed: May 25th
Submission of
Revised Version
Proposed: June 5th
High Level Summary of Data Sources
and Synthesis Table of Content (TOC)
DATA COLLECTION
DATA SYNTHESIS - TOC
• NERC Reports
• DOE EIA information and models, as relevant
• Material from national labs such as NETL, NREL,
PNL, & LBL, as appropriate
• Characteristics of the
Grid
• Myths & Legends
• Other Publicly Available Studies/information
• Study implications
• Task Force and other Utility developed materials
• Key Drivers
• Accenture Climate Change Initiative Results and
other information/studies.
• Reliability Implications
• Additional sources found through an Accenture
literature search
• Way Forward (phase II)
Extract of Reference Documentation
(collection phase in progress)

Accenture. “Accenture Executive Survey on Climate Change 2008, Parts I & II” May 2008.

Accenture. “Achieving High Performance in an Era of Climate Change,” 2008.

DOE. “20% Wind Energy by 2030,” July 2008. http://www.20percentwind.org/default.aspx

DOE. “2009 Annual Plan Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum Resources Research and Development Program,”
(NETL) December 2008.

DOE. “An Interagency Roadmap for Methane Hydrate Research & Development,” (NETL) July 2006.

DOE. “Hydrogen Posture Plan: An Integrated Research, Development and Demonstration Plan,” (NETL) December 2006.

EIA. “Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030,” June 2008. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2008).pdf

EIA. “Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act Discussion Draft,” April 2009.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/acesa/pdf/sroiaf(2009)04.pdf

EPRI. “2008 Update of the Profiling and Mapping of Intelligent Grid R&D Programs,” August 28, 2008.

EPRI. “Recent EPRI R&D Threads related to Grid Operation and Planning,” April 19, 2005.
http://phasors.pnl.gov/Meetings/2005_april/presentations/Lee%20EIPP_EPRI_4192005.pdf

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS),” February 6, 2009.

http://www.nerc.com/files/2008-Climate-Initiatives-Report.pdf

IEEE PES Transactions on Energy Conversion. “Key Technical Challenges for the Electric Power Industry
and Climate Change,” February 2009.

Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP). “2018 Summer Reliability Study Report,” February 2009. http://www.jcspstudy.org/

McKinsey & Company. “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?” December 2007.
http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “Advanced Power Electronic Interfaces for Distributed Energy Systems, Part 1: Systems and Topologies,” March
2008. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42672.pdf

NERC. “2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment: 2008 – 2017,” January 27, 2009.

NERC. “Special Report: Electric Industry Concerns on the Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives,” November 12, 2008.

NERC. Press Release. “NERC CEO Announces Plan to Improve Response to Cyber and Critical Infrastructure Protection,” July 14, 2008.
http://www.nerc.com/fileUploads/File/PressReleases/PR_071408_CIP_Letter.pdf

The Blue Ribbon Panel on Cost Allocation. “A National Perspective on Allocating the Costs of New Transmission Investment: Practice and Principles,”
September 2007.

Tierney, Susan F. Analysis Group. “A 21st Century “Interstate Electric Highway System” – Connecting Consumers and Domestic Clean Power Supplies,”
(“Tierney White Paper”) October 31, 2008.
http://www.analysisgroup.com/analysisgroup/uploadedFiles/Publishing/Articles/Tierney_21st_Century_Transmission.pdf
Open Considerations Regarding Scenario
Creation (Preparation for Phase II)
Third Party Reference Scenarios
Create Scenarios
•
Use the climate change drivers identified in
Phase I (ex: Direct Greenhouse gas caps,
renewable objectives, EE objectives etc.)
•
Select combinations of those drivers to create
several representative scenarios
•
Select meaningful ranges for each driver, based
on legislation and perceived viability (ex: 15,
20% or 25% renewables by 2020)
•
Keep other baseline factors constant (i.e. use
third party reference for non climate change
factors)
•
Use third party reference scenarios (ex: EIA)
•
Analyze the assumptions and tie climate
change assumptions back to the Phase I drivers
•
Focus on analyzing the implications (what
needs to be done to achieve this?) and
consequences (on reliability etc.) of these
scenarios
+
+
•
Direct tie-in to Phase I and the build up of the
drivers
•
Credibility and homogeneity based on widely
recognized references
•
Focuses on climate change parameters only
as scenario variables
•
Less time spent modeling scenarios and
more focus spent on implications for the grid /
consequences for reliability
Going Forward: Expectations from this
Group for Phase I
 Share any relevant documents during the data collection
phase
 Review the approach and the analysis results
 Provide clarification on key issues or discuss any finds
not in line with expectations
 Discuss and validate the scenario development/selection
-> Ultimately, own the assessment and the results for
Phase 1
Question & Answer