Transcript Environmental Scenario Analysis Overview and EEA Approach

SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Environmental Scenario Analysis
Overview and Approaches
Thomas Henrichs
European Environment Agency
1 - [THE, TGR] – Overview & Approaches
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns.
The ones we don't know we don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld
(12. Feb 2003, DOD Press Conference)
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EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SCENARIOS
How to address uncertainty?
The way we address uncertainty depends on:
- what we know about causalities in a system, and
- the level of (un)certainty about future driving forces.
unknown
Speculation
Facts
Outlooks
known
low
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Uncertainty
high
EEA definitions
scenario
… a plausible description of how the future may
unfold based on a set of 'if-then' propositions.
Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.
outlook
… estimates of future developments usually based
on available data, past trends and/or models.
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SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Outlooks & Projections
• distance-to-target evaluations
• what-if …?, trend analyses
• mostly quantitative
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Scenarios & Outlooks
Scenario Analysis
• policy agenda setting
• emerging issues, surprises
• qualitative and quantitative
Experts, Data
& Modelling
Experts &
Stakeholders
Outlooks & Projections
(short-term)
Scenarios
(long-term)
☺ Issue
14
12
10
8
6
…
4
2
0
2000
2010
2020
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European Land Use Change Scenarios
The main driving forces behind land use
change are climate change, population growth
and technical and economic development,
particularly of the transport and agriculture
sectors.
PAST
Current State
situation in the base year of scenario
Driving forces
Factors
deteminants that influence changes
choices/decisions that bring changes
Choices
Image(s) of the future
situation in the end year of scenario
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Inspired by Alcamo (Kassel) & Raskin (SEI)
FUTURE
(Step-wise) Changes
at the core of a scenario analysis
depicting how the driving forces unfold
storyline highlighting key features
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Elements of scenarios
PRESENT
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Why develop scenarios & outlooks?
Education / Public Information
to educate and teach students, citizens, pupils
to raise awareness of policy-makers, stakeholders
Science / Research
to integrate information from different fields
to explore possible developments
Strategic Planning / Decision Support
to gather different views and to identify issues
to frame strategic issues, to identify alternatives
to support policy measure development
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SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Examples of recent scenario exercises
EEA State of the Environment Report (1999)
various outlooks on different issues
IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (2000)
4 global emission / climate change scenarios
World Water Vision (2000)
3 global scenarios on water resources
OECD Environment Outlook (2001)
1 scenario on economy & environment
UNEP Global Environment Outlook (2002)
4 global scenarios on environment
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EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
How to develop scenarios & outlooks?
Aim: To engage in a structured discussion about an
uncertain future.
Depends mostly on the goals of the scenario exercise!
Using qualitative (e.g. participation) or quantitative
approaches (e.g. modelling) or a combinition of both:
Each scenario exercise needs tailor-made approaches.
Scenarios (and outlooks) should be plausible,
internally consistent, combine scientific rigour with
creativity ... and meet the goal of the exercise!
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EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SCENARIOS
Combining approaches
EEA
‘Story-and-Simulation‘
Experts
Quant. Scen.
14
12
10
8
Stakeholders
6
4
2
0
2000
Qual. Scen
☺ Floods
☺ Biodiv.
…
European Land Use Change Scenarios
The main driving forces behind land use
change are climate change, population growth
and technical and economic development,
particularly of the transport and agriculture
sectors.
The environmental impacts of land use change
are complex, and may affect air quality, water
quality and quantity, landscape structure and
biodiversity …
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Based on: EEA (2001)
2010
2020
Data &
Modelling
Group(s)
Scenarios & Decision Support Systems
Two principle variants of interplay between scenarios
and decision support systems:
• Modelling / DSS as part of the scenario analysis, for
example by quantifying impacts, costs, etc.
• DSS to think through different response / adaptation
options within different scenarios.
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EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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