Transcript ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE …

S.M. Kihu,
Co- Authors - C.G. Gitau, L.C. Bebora, J.M. Njenga, G.G. Wairire, N. Maingi,
R .G. Wahome,
PhD study ongoing
Second Biannual conference of the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in
Agriculture 20th-24th September 2010 Entebbe
 Introduction
 Study objective
 Justification of the study
 Material and methods
 Results
 Conclusion
Introduction
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Peste des petit ruminants (PPR) is
a highly contagious, infectious
and often fatal viral disease of
sheep, goats and wild small
ruminants.
Disease is found in Africa and
Asia
In Eastern Africa region the
disease has been described in
Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia,
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania
Introduction contn’
There were
reports suspecting
PPR in Kenya in
1992.
 The disease was
confirmed in
Turkana Kenya in
2007.
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Disease spread is associated with contacts between
infected and clean flocks.
 Naïve populations have morbidity rates up to 100%
and mortality rates as high as 90%.
 In Kenya 14.4 million small stock at risk of infection
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Causes major losses ; a key constraint to small ruminants
production.
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PPR disease destroys livelihoods of pastoral
communities i.e. lose of food, earning, social
relationships and prestige.
Economic loses are high but there is scanty data.
Disease control is expensive considering the
reproductive cycle of small stock.
However vaccination have shown to be beneficial
in disease control.
Annual estimated loses during the 2007 and 2008
outbreak in Kenya stood at US$ 13 million.
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In Turkana 90% of livestock is small stock and
contribute heavily to their livelihoods.
PPR is ranked among the top ten diseases of small
ruminants in the district.
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To assess the risk factors and socio-economic
effects associated with the spread PPR in
Turkana District, Kenya
 To determine the risk factors influencing the patterns
of PPR spread in Turkana district,
 To determine the level of herd immunity within the
flocks,
 To determine the socio economic impact of the
disease.
 To document and evaluate current control strategies
in Kenya.
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There are very limited studies investigating the
disease patterns in Kenya thus there is need to
understand the factors that made the disease
outbreak emerge in Turkana, Kenya.
PPR is an economically important disease to the
rural communities.
inform rehabilitation of affected communities
inform the policy development in regard to
control, prevention and eventual eradication of the
disease.
Materials and
Methods
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Study area is six
Divisions of Turkana
District purposively
selected based on
initial reports of PPR
outbreaks and they lie
along the
international frontier.
Loima, Orropoi,
Kakuma, Lokichogio,
Kaalich, and Kibish
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Study design : Participatory Epidemiology (PE)
focused group discussions (FGD), Semi
structured interviews (SSI) with service providers,
cross-sectional sero-prevalence survey, and desk
study.
Sampling unit will be Adakar
Sample size for FGD is 60 Adakars purposively
selected.
Sample size for sero-prevalence is 384 per
species.
Materials and methods
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The methods of PE that will
be used include matrices
scoring, proportional piling,
participatory mapping,
timelines and seasonal
calendars to determine the
risk factors associated with
PPR.
Sero prevalence analysis
using competitive EnzymeLinked Immuno-sorbent
Assay (C-ELISA) to determine
the herd immunity
Material and methods
Impact of PPR on Turkana
livelihoods will be assessed
 Cost benefit analysis will be
undertaken to establish
economical and social viability
of PPR control measures so far
undertaken.
 A stochastic MSVEIR model
will be developed to inform on
PPR disease dynamics and
evaluate the most appropriate
control strategies
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An inception workshop with various stakeholders
was held at which several issues were discussed.
The field personnel that will be involved in data
collection have been trained on participatory tools.
Pilot tested the data collection checklists.
The local stakeholders including administration
personnel and community elders have been
sensitized.
Data collection will begin in November 2010
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This study is aimed at informing the policy
development in regard to control, prevention
and eventual eradication of the disease.
Further insights from the study will inform
rehabilitation of affected communities so
that they can regain meaningful livelihood
through pastoralism.
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Risk assessment checklist on risk variables
PE exercise proportional piling used in FGD to
score the variables.
Exploratory factor analysis used to extract
the Risk factors.
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The monetary value of the benefits that are
quantifiable will be calculated, projected over a
specified period, and discounted to present values
to reflect the time-value of money.
The costs of loses and the various interventions
over time will also be calculated and similarly
discounted.
Cost benefit analysis will be undertaken by
comparing the Present Value of Benefits (PVB)
and the Present Value of Costs (PVC).
Maternal immunity, Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed , infectious and
Resistant
ρ1
b
S
б
μ
b1
ρ
M
μ
V
β1
γ
E
α
I
R
μ
β
μ
σ
μ
μ
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α–rate at which infectious become resistant
b –birth rate of susceptible kids and lambs
b1 – birth rate of maternal immune kid and lambs
β –rate at which susceptible became exposed
β1 –rate of infection before obtaining immunity
γ –rate at which exposed become infectious
δ –rate of lose of maternal immunity
μ –non specific death rate
ρ –immunization rate
ρ1 –rate of immunized developing resistance
σ –PPR specific death rate