Transcript an economic overview 2011

AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
2011
ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to
DELOITTE
www.rich.co.ke
GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS
23rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei
The Translation
• "I didn't care about jasmine at first, but
people
who are scared by jasmine sent out
information about how harmful
jasmine is often, which makes me realize
that jasmine is what scares
them the most. What a jasmine!"
Mohamed Bouazizi – Tipping Agent
Gaddafi The Craziest Guy In The
Room
Heightened Geopolitical Risk Lifts
Crude
Crude Oil Post Bouazizi
Kenya Spent KES 250 BN 12
Months thr Feb 2011 +31% on
Crude Imports
The Mobile – A Game Changer –
Signal To Noise-Gulliver and
Lilliputians
Food Price Index- All Time High
AFRICA THE BROADER CANVAS
"The first quarter of 2011 has been among the most turbulent in Africa's history.“
AFDB
Statistics
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2 Billion Consumers in 2050
A Billion Consumers Now
Walmart Buys Massmart for $4.4 Billion
Bharti Buys Zain for $10.7 Billion
More Families in Africa who earn more
than $20,000 p.a. than in India
 China-Africa trade over $100 Billion
East Africa – The Region
 East Africa's economy is expected to show growth of 6.7
percent this year, from 6.2 percent in 2010
 Regional GDP 2010 – Feel The Growth :
 Uganda 6.3%
 Tanzania 7.0%
 Rwanda 6.5%
 Sudan 5.9%
 Burundi 3.7%
 Kenya 5.6%
 A market of 160 Million Consumers
Pres. Museveni Upsizes His Oil
Find To 10 Bn Barrels = $4 Trillion
at #Mindspeak
South Sudan Expected To Grow
20-25% GDP but currently
squeezed by Bashir
 Kenya Exports Market changing
 Uganda overtaken UK as Kenya’s number
one trading partner
 Somalia, Sudan, DRC among Kenya’s top
10 export destinations
Reading the Kenyan Economy you
need to be an Economist and a
Meteorologist
KENYA THE STATE OF THE NOW
 Inflation surges to 12.95% from a cycle
low of 3.1% in 2010
 Bond Yields at 9 year highs
 The Shilling at an all time low
 The NSE 20 -8%
Kenya Shilling At An All Time Low
NSE 20 Index -8% in 2011
The ICT Revolution – Kenya as a
Laboratory Experiment
 Kenyan mobile phone subscriber numbers
rose 28 percent to 25 million
last year
 Internet users stood at 10 million last
December compared with 4 million in
2009, CCK said
Is the New Constitution a Tipping
Point for Political Risk
 Out of the last 4 elections we have
mismanaged 3
 ICC process – will it be cathartic?
 The Future is not seen in the Rear View
Mirror or is it?
Thank-You