Transcript Team 2 Technology Life Cycle

Technological Evolution
Reverse Engineering the Human
Brain
Pete, Steve, Malaya, Craig, Binu
Six Epochs of Evolution
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•
•
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Epoch-1 Physics and Chemistry – Atomic molecules
Epoch-2 Biology/Information in DNA
Epoch-3 Brains/Information in neural patterns
Epoch-4 Technology/Information in hardware and
software
• Epoch-5 Merger of Technology and Human Intelligence
• Epoch-6 The Universe Awakens
– mater and energy in the universe become saturated with
intelligent process and knowledge
The Singularity is Near
• “I set the date for the singularity repressing a
profound and disruptive transformation in
human capability – as 2045. The non
biological intelligence created in that year will
be one billion more powerful than all human
intelligence today” Kurzweil
• What is the Singularity?
Law of Accelerating Returns
Law of Accelerating Returns
Historical Context
• 20th century progress is equivalent to last 20
years of 2000, the next 20 in 14years, and the
next in 7years
– Stone tools, fire, wheel took 10,000 years
– Printing press took a 100 years to be adopted
– First computer designed with pencil on paper ~50
– Human genome took 13 yrs vast % towards the
latter years
Evolution
• Advanced mammals add 1cubic inch of brain matter every
100K years
• Doubling computational capacity every year
Doubling/Halving Times
Dynamic RAM Feature size
5.4 years
Dynamic RAM (bits per dollar)
1.5
Average Transistor Price
1.6
Microprocessor Costs per Transistor Cycle
1.1
Total Bits Shipped
1.1
Processor performance in MIPS
1.8
Transistors in Intel Microprocessor
2.0
Microprocessor Clock Speed
3.0
Software efficiency
6.0
Kurzweils Timeline
Timeline: The Future According to Ray Kurzweil (JANUARY 09, 2006 Computer World article)
• 2010: Computers become invisible
• 2013: Human brain functional simulation
• 2020: $1k buys a computer working at 10 quadrillion, or 1016, calculations per
second. (Human brain functional simulation)
• 2025: Computer are able to simulate the entire human brain. (Neural Upload)
• 2030: Non-biological intelligence matches human intelligence in range and
subtlety; $1k buys a computer 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
• 2045: The point of "singularity" is reached, when technical progress is so fast that
unenhanced human intelligence can't follow it. One can no longer distinguish
between our biology and our technology.
• 2050: Computing will exceed the processing power of all humans on Earth for $1k
• 22nd century: Our intelligence, biological and non-biological combined, saturates
the matter and energy around us and begins to spread throughout the universe.
The Human Brain
• Hardware
– 1014 - 1016cps
– 1013 – 1018 bits of
memory
• Software
• Hardware Advancement
– 3 x 1015cps (Blue Gene/p)
– 1012( accessible in 14 nanoseconds) Quantum dots 1 sq
inch.
• Software
– Human Genome
consists of 800 million
– MS Word >109
bytes : remove the
redundancy 109
• Human Brain achieves 3 dimensional processing
via folding
Software Developments
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•
•
•
Audio sensory software
Neural networks, Genetic algorithms
Retina Implant software
Mouse brain mapped
– Identified brain cancer (giloma) gene
Computational Developments
• IBM Blue Gene /P 3 petaflops (3 x 1015cps)
– Original design and estimate for 1 petaflop
• Speed of light may not be a constant
• Quantum Computing – Dr. Frank
Innovations
• Nanotechnology
– “We are helping the military shorten its supply lines by increasing the
thermal performance of its tents by reducing diesel needs by 30%”
• DNA Computing 6.6 x 1014cps
• Self Assembly
• Computing with Spin
Technical Barriers to Breach
• Deep brain Scanning - Mapping neural activity
– 4 yr $55 million effort to build 3 dimensional
• Mapping the Visual cortex functional
• 3 Dimensional processing
• AI Turing test
– “Turing test will be limited to controlling avatars in
a virtual world--probably Second Life” Fall 2008
IBM Blue Gene
Bibliography/Reading List
• http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=
/articles/art0534.html
• http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0465.html?pri
ntable=1
• http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?c
ommand=printArticleBasic&articleId=107494
• http://www03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/21791.wss
Further Research
• Network traffic efficiency maximized by
emulating the neural networks
• Shrinking Technology lifecycle
• Intelligence awakening of the universe and
historical research vs. ancient Hindu texts on
Nirvana ‘Universe Intelligent’
Companies
• http://www.apinanotronics.com/
• IBM [IBM], Hewlett-Packard [HPQ],
ChevronTexaco, [CVX] and DuPont [DD]
• http://www.aerogel.com/
• http://www.nanoterra.com
• http://www.nanosolar.com