Transcript Brian Motherway

The people dimension
Brian Motherway
@BrianRMotherway
#energyefficientworld
© OECD/IEA 2015
2016
IEA strategy to raise climate ambition
Gt CO2-eq
Global energy-related GHG emissions
Savings by measure, 2030
40
INDC Scenario
35
Bridge Scenario
Fossil-fuel
subsidy reform
Upstream methane
reductions
14%
11%
Energy
efficiency
48%
30
Renewables 18%
investment
25
9%
Reducing
inefficient coal
20
2000
2014
2020
2025
2030
Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions
around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2016 update, 2016.
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Bridging strategy is flexible across regions
GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario,
relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030
Russia
27%
European Union
China
United States
76% Middle East
44%
80%
9%
India
Efficiency
Inefficient coal plants
Renewables
Methane reductions
Fossil-fuel subsidies
Latin America
Africa
Southeast Asia
34%
43%
32%
44%
85% of global energy efficiency opportunity is within G20
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G20 Energy Efficiency
Analysis by IEA
2030 savings Mt CO2eq
-2000
-1600
-1200
-800
-400
G20
China
India
United States
European Union
Heating and cooling
Appliances and lighting
Industrial motors
Road transport
48% improvement in energy intensity possible through
proven, economically viable measures in G20
Analysis by IEA World Energy Outlook
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Progress required in all areas
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Unlocked Potential
Energy efficiency potential to 2035 by sector
100%
Unrealised energy
efficiency potential
Realised energy
efficiency potential
80%
60%
40%
20%
Industry
Transport
Power
generation
Buildings
2/3 of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency
remains untapped in the period to 2035
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
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Analysing energy efficiency
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Better data leads to better outcomes
Energy Data
Improved
Analysis &
Metrics
Better
Decisions
& Policies
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The multiple benefits of energy efficiency
Energy efficiency is a means to enhance energy security, support economic
and social development, and promote environmental goals
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Question
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Energy efficiency investment
Investments in various fuels 2014
400
350
USD Billion
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
310
Energy efficiency*
270
290
950
Renewable power** Fossil fired power*** Upstream oil, gas and
coal****
* IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. ** IEA (2015), Renewable Energy Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA.
*** Frankfurt School-UNEP Center (2015), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, Frankfurt: Frankfurt School of Management, UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
**** IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, Paris: OECD/IEA.
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The direction of investment
needs to take a turn
$ trillion
Cumulative world energy sector investment,
2015-2030
18
INDC
16
Bridge
Strategy
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Fossil fuels
Power T&D
Low-carbon
Energy efficiency
Cumulative investment in the Bridge Scenario increases by only 6%, with 70%
of the additional investment going to energy efficiency, 30% to renewables.
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Question
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Delivering energy efficiency
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Question
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Behaviour
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Better data leads to better outcomes
Energy Data
Improved
Analysis &
Metrics
Better
Decisions
& Policies
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Analysis is seductive
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Integration
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Question
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The people dimension
[email protected]
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2016