Transcript EU vehicle fuel economy standards are effective Energy

La transformation des systèmes énergétiques en
Europe pour limiter le changement climatique
Didier Houssin
Directeur des politiques et des technologies énergétiques durables
AIE
Confrontations Europe
Paris, le 29 janvier 2015
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Carbon Intensity of supply is stuck
The political will to make meaningful progress
at a global scale has yet to be demonstrated
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A transformation is needed…
..and we to have the tools to develop a strategy and be proactive
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Investment in our future pays off…
…and it is cost effective to make the transition
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We are not on track
Renewable power
Nuclear power
Gas-fired power
Coal-fired power
Carbon capture and storage
Industry
Transport
Biofuels
Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles
Buildings
Smart grids
Co-generation and district heating and cooling
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Going in the wrong direction globally
Unabated coal use in electricity generation is
incompatible with 2DS objectives
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IEA messages for COP 20 in Lima
 Seize the benefits of immediate action
to bend the global emissions curve
 Focus on electricity decarbonisation
 Reshape investment and accelerate
innovation now in low-carbon
technologies
 Mobilise non-climate goals to promote
energy sector decarbonisation
 Strengthen the resilience of the energy
sector to climate change
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Seize the benefits of immediate action
to bend the global emissions curve
GDP-neutral set of pre-2020 actions
• Heating and cooling in
buildings
• Appliances and lighting
• Industrial motors
• Vehicle fuel economy
standards
Short-term actions, led by energy efficiency, can keep the 2oC
goal within reach.
Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Redrawing the Energy-Climate
Map, 2013
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IEA In-depth Review of
the European Union 2014
tCO₂/USD 1 000 GDP PPP at 2005 prices
EU leads the transition to a low-carbon economy
0.7
Australia
0.6
United States
Canada
0.5
IEA total
0.4
European Union
0.3
Japan
0.2
0.1
0.000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
EU energy-related CO2 emissions per real GDP declined by 19% and carbon
intensity has almost halved since 1990. Decarbonisation was largely the
result of the economic crisis, the boom in renewable energy and EU
energy efficiency action on fuels, eco-design and buildings.
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Energy intensity declines
toe/USD 1 000 GDP PPP at 2005 prices
Improved energy intensity, but challenges remain
0.35
Canada
0.30
United States
Australia
0.25
EU28
0.20
Japan
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Energy intensity in the EU declined by 31.5% since 1990. It is much lower than
in other IEA member countries thanks to energy efficiency improvements and
the reduced demand in the economic crisis. Depending on the scale of
economic recovery, achieving the 20% target by 2020 can be challenging.
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New 2030 Climate & Energy Framework
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Ambitious targets for 2030
Making climate part of the Energy Union
Focus on EU internal energy market
Rebalancing energy security, competitiveness and
sustainability
Decarbonisation of electricity, heat and transport
Renewable growth in an EU wide market with energy
system transformation
Cost-efficiency of RES support schemes
Multiple benefits of energy efficiency
Investment and technology innovation
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Decarbonisation and EU-ETS
Power generation and transport are top emitters
4 500
Power generation
4 000
Other energy industries*
3 500
MtCO₂
3 000
Manufacturing industries
and construction
2 500
2 000
Transport
1 500
1 000
Commercial**
500
Residential
0
1990
2007
2012
Emission trading scheme saw a carbon price collapse from EUR 30 to EUR 6 per
tCO2 since 2008. Power generation remains the largest emitters in 2012. The EU
saw the revival of coal, as EU natural gas prices are consistently above global
coal prices during 2009-14.
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Renewable energies
EU renewable-based generation on track to target,
but global renewable energy growth is strong
6 000
25%
5 000
20%
TWh
4 000
15%
3 000
10%
2 000
5%
1 000
0
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Middle East
Africa
Australasia
Eurasia
Other Asia
North America
Latin America
EU
Other Europe
China
% renewable energy
% non-hydro renewable energy
The EU growth in renewable energies has been impressive, but there might be a
shortfall of 9% to 2020, as not every country or technology is on track.
EU share in the global market is decreasing, staying behind the growth rates of
emerging and developing countries.
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Energy efficiency
EU vehicle fuel economy standards are effective
On average fuel economy of new passenger cars has improved with some
member states leading world efforts. Progress is in step with other global
leaders.
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EU energy policy: towards an
internal market
Progress:
 More harmonised rules for cross-border trade and networks
 Greater independence of national regulators and transmission system
operators and their EU co-operation (ACER, ENTSOs)
 Enforcement of competition in the energy sector and transparency
 Electricity: Integrated cross border intraday market: Price coupling of regions
 Gas: Increased trade and liquidity of major EU gas hubs
Challenges:
 Energy system transformation: Ensuring adequacy and system operation in
systems with high variable renewable energy and cross-border trade
 Lack of cross-border capacity
 Investment in projects of common interest
 Concentrated retail markets and limited consumer engagement
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Competitiveness
USD/Mbu
Global energy market trends are felt in the EU
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
Henry Hub
Asia LNG Average
GBP
NBP
TTF
 The structural gap between energy prices in the EU, US and Asia concerns
EU energy-intensive industry that uses gas as feedstock, petrochemical,
fertilizer and manufacturing sectors, are affected and so are their exports.
 Declining EU refining capacity (-8% since 2008) and lower energy demand
drives imports of oil products and exposure to global oil price trends.
 EU share in global export markets for energy-intensive goods, especially for
chemicals, is set to fall (by 10%) across all energy-intensive goods.
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Electricity Security
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Renewable energy boom drives EU wholesale electricity prices down.
EU generation capacity, nuclear and coal (500 GW), is set to retire, less diversity and
baseload generation.
Making the most of capacity and generation diversity within the EU, including from
renewables, can ensure adequacy. For that a more interconnected market is of key
importance!
GWh
600
Change in generation
400
150
200
100
0
50
- 200
0
- 400
- 50
2000-08
Change in capacity
200
GW
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2008-12
2012-20
2020-35
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Wind and solar PV
2000-08
2008-12
Other renewables
Source: IEA, World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris, June 2014.
2012-20
2020-35
Net demand change
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Gas Security
bcm
 Declining gas production and low LNG supplies (-50% since 2010) translated
into higher dependency on pipeline imports, notably from Russia.
 LNG is currently re-exported to Asia. LNG supplies are locked-in due to lack of
interconnection.
7
Korea
6
Netherlands
5
Portugal
4
France
3
Brazil
2
Belgium
1
Spain
United States
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
 LNG remains the most credible diversification option, next to new gas
supplies through the Southern gas corridor.
 80 bcm of unconventional gas by 2035 could be harnessed, if supportive
regulatory and political framework and sufficient public confidence.
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Our key recommendations (1/3)
Reinstating a commitment to an internal energy market
 Integrate intra-day and balancing electricity markets across borders.
 Enlarge coordination on system operation and adequacy assessments to the level of
regionally interconnected systems.
 Ensure market rules remunerate electricity generation value depending on time,
location and system service provision.
 Secure effective use of gas storage and LNG across the borders, develop (unconventional gas production potential in the EU, and diversify gas supplies, in dialogue
with consumer and producer countries.
 Boost interconnectivity of the EU energy network by completing the investment into
projects of common interest.
 Phase out regulated retail prices and create more competitive retail markets, with
stronger demand-side response, dynamic prices and choice for consumers.
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Our key recommendations (2/3)
Nuclear energy
 Develop policies to support investment in uprates, safety
upgrades, and extensions of the lifetimes of nuclear power plants.
 Ensure coordination among member states regarding all forms of
radioactive waste, particularly regarding used nuclear fuel, e.g.,
regional repositories.
Research, Development and Deployment
 Ensure adequate energy RD&D funding to meet EU energy policy
goals.
 Regularly monitor and assess outcomes of energy RD&D
programmes based on a set of indicators on competitiveness and
innovation.
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Our key recommendations (3/3)
Reconciling climate and energy policy after 2020
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Strengthen and expand requirements and their enforcement for cost-effective
energy-efficient buildings (i.e. renovations), appliances, lighting, equipment,
transport and district heating and cooling systems in cities.
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Track all energy subsidies and reduce distortive impacts of public intervention.
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Swiftly reform the EU-ETS to reduce the surplus in allowances and ensure a
consistent carbon price signal under varying economic conditions and varying
abatement from other policies.
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Complement the EU-ETS with policies to attract investment in low-carbon
technologies through sector-specific measures to enhance technology innovation
and address non-economic barriers.
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Regularly evaluate social and economic outcomes when tracking progress to EU
competitiveness.
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