Transcript remembering some of the lessons from one of 2013`s non

REMEMBERING SOME OF
THE LESSONS FROM ONE
OF 2013’S NONDISASTERS.
PART 5: EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
INDONESIA
VOLCANO SINABUNG ON
NORTH SUMATRA,
INDONESIA ERUPTS
November 3, 2013
--- But No Disaster This Time
UNDERSTANDING
EXPLOSIVE VOLCANOES
542 OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
ARE LOCATED IN “RING OF FIRE”
VOLCANOES IN INDONESIA
INDONESIA, A PART OF THE PACIFIC
“RING OF FIRE,” HAS 127 ACTIVE
VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX
SUBDUCTION OF THE INDO-AUSTRALIA
AND EURASIA TECTONIC PLATES
INDONESIA’S VOLCANOES
PHYSICAL EFFECTS OF
EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSA NATURAL HAZARD
VERTICAL ASH PLUME, HIGH-VELOCITY
LATERAL BLAST, TEPHRA, LAVA FLOWS,
LAHARS, AND VOLCANIC WINTER
VOLCANO HAZARDS
CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS
• VERTICAL ASH PLUME (can
affect jet aircraft)
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS,
BURSTS, AND FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS
CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS (can bury villages)
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing
famine and mass extinctions)
CAUSES
OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
EXPLOSIVE
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
BEFORE AUGUST, 2010,
SINABUNG HAD BEEN
INACTIVE FOR 400 YEARS
The August eruption led to an
evacuation of 30,000 people
MOUNT SINABUNG:
NOV. 3, 2013
SEPTEMBER 2013 ERUPTION
• An eruption in September 2013
also prompted an evacuation--about 3,500 villagers lining within
3 km of the volcano.
OCTOBER 2013 ERUPTION
• Another eruption on October
24th also prompted an
evacuation of about 3,500
villagers lining within 2-3 km of
the volcano.
WHAT HAPPENED
NOVEMBER 3RD
• The 8,530-foot-high mountain erupted
early on Sunday, November 3rd,
sending a vertical ash plume 7,000 feet
into the air.
• This eruption prompted an evacuation
of 1,500 people living within 3 km of the
volcano.
TOWARDS VOLCANIC
ERUPTION DISASTER
RESILIENCE
VOLCANO RISK
•VOLCANO HAZARDS
•PEOPLE & BLDGS.
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
INDONESIA’S
GOAL: VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
COMMUNITIES
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
TOWARDS DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION FOR VOLCANOES
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITY
• COST
• EXPOSURE
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• EVENT
EXPECTED
LOSS
• BENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
POLICY
ADOPTION
THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE:
1) KNOW THE ERUPTIVE HISTORY OF
YOUR REGION’S VOLCANOES,
2) BE PREPARED
3) HAVE A WARNING SYSTEM
4) EVACUATE
5) LEARN FROM THE
EXPERIENCE AND BE READY TO
START OVER
CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
 USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING
THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER
AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING
POINTS
2014--2020 IS A GOOD TIME
FOR A GLOBAL SURGE IN
EDUCATIONAL, TECHNICAL,
HEALTH CARE, AND POLITICAL
CAPACITY BUILDING
IN ALL FIVE PILLARS OF
COMMUNITY
DISASTER RESILIENCE
CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR
FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS FOR POLICIES ON
PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY
WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY
INTEGRATION OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL
CONSIDERATIONS
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURNING POINTS: For Disaster Resilience on
local, regional, national, and global scales
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
Real and Near- Real Time
Monitoring
Hazard, Vulnerability and
Risk Characterization
Best Practices for Mitigation
Adaptation and Monitoring
Situation Data Bases
APPLICATIONS
EDUCATIONAL SURGES
Relocation/Rerouting of
Cities and City Lifelines
Enlighten Communities on
Their Risks
Create a Hazard Zonation
Map as a Policy Tool
Implement Modern Codes
and Lifeline Standards
Cause & Effect Relationships
Introduce New
Technologies
Anticipatory Actions for all
Events and Situations
Move Towards A Disaster
Intelligent Community
Interfaces with all Real- and
Near Real-Time Sources
Gateways to a Deeper
Understanding
Build Strategic Equity
Through Disaster Scenarios
Involve Partners in Turning
Point Experimemts
Multiply Capability by
International Twinning
Update Knowledge Bases
After Each Disaster