Transcript LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 8

LEARNING FROM GLOBAL
DISASTER LABORATORIES
PART 8: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
are awesome manifestations
of heat flowing as a result of
mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii
and Iceland) or explosive
eruptions in subduction
zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim).
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
VERTICAL PLUME
TEPHRA AND ASH
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS (aka volcanic
landslides)
• EARTHQUAKES (related to the
internal movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
CAUSES
OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
WE CONTINUE TO OPERATE WITH
A FLAWED PREMISE:
KNOWLEDGE FROM DISASTERS
RELATED TO EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY
NATION WITH PEOPLE AND ASSETS AT
RISK ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT
POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER
RESILIENT
FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES
MULTIPLE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION
WILL ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT
POLICIES THAT MOVE IT
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
FACT (continued)
• BUT, THE INTERVAL OF TIME
BETWEEN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS CAN BE AS LONG AS 500
OR MORE YEARS.
FACT:
MOST UNAFFECTED NATIONS DON’T
EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW
FROM ANOTHER NATION’S
VOLCANIC DISASTERS AND DON’T
CONSIDER THEM TO BE A BASIS FOR
CHANGING EXISTING POLICIES
ELEVEN OF THE WORLD’S
NOST DANGEROUS
VOLCANOES
THE NEXT ERUPTION OF THESE 11
ACTIVE VOLCANOES IS LIKELY TO BE
DEVASTATING LOCALLY, REGIONALLY,
AND GLOBALLY
WHAT MAKES THESE 11
VOLCANOES DANGEROUS
• Eyjafjallajökull
and Katla
(ICELAND)
• Chaiten
• Krakatau
• Merapi
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vesuvius
Pinatubo
Mount Rainier
Nevada del Ruiz
Popocatepl
Nyirangongo
(CONGO)
THEIR LOCATION NEAR CITIES AND
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE ROUTES
An eruption of any one of these
eleven volcanoes is certain to be
devastating to people, their
property, their health, the
economy, and, sometimes, the
regional air space.
Eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull
Volcano in Southern Iceland
A Threat to North AmericanEuropean Air Traffic
MARCH 20, 2010
The Eyjafjallajökull and Katla
Volcanoes: Southern Iceland
The Eyjafjallajökull (AYA-feeyaplayurkul) volcano in Southern Iceland,
part of the volcanic process that
originally formed Iceland, erupted a
few minutes before midnight on
Saturday, March 20th
EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC
DISRUPTED: APRIL 15, 2010
An eruption of the Katla
volcano, located under the
massive Myrdalsjokull icecap,
could cause disastrous local
flooding, explosive blasts, and
eruption clouds that would
disrupt air traffic between
Europe and the USA.
VOLCANO CHAITEN ERUPTS:
CHILE: MAY 3, 2008
CHAITEN ERUPTED AFTER 8,00010,000 YEAR DORMANCY
•THE 1,200 M (3,550 FT) VOLCANO
SENT ASH HIGH INTO THE SKY.
• “VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES
WERE TRIGGERED IN THE AREA.
•1,500 RESIDENTS EVACUATED,
MOSTLY BY BOAT
The Historic 1883 Krakatoa
Eruption
!
Anak Krakatoa—Son of Krakatoa
KRAKATAU
• 26-27 August, 1883; The big one!
http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Krakatau.html
MOUNT MERAPI:
INDONESIA
INDONESIA’S MOUNT MERAPI
ERUPTED ON MAY & JUNE, 2006
• Mount Merapi
emitted lava,
debris, and a
pyroclastic flow
on May 15, but
this one was
not devastating.
EXPLOSIVENESS OF JUNE 8
ERUPTION SENT 15,000 FLEEING
MOUNT VESUVIUS: ITALY; A
THREAT TO NAPLES
MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT
TO TOKYO
MT. PINATUBO: THE
PHILIPPINES; JUNE 15, 1991
Pinatubo was the second largest
volcanic eruption of the 20th
century and the largest to impact
a densely populated area.
MOUNT RAINIER: THREAT TO
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON (USA)
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR
SIMULATION
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR
SIMULATION
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR
SIMULATION
NEVADA DEL RUIZ:
COLOMBIA; A 1988 DISASTER
The lahar generated by the
eruption of Nevada del Ruiz
buried 25,000 people in the
city of Armero as they slept.
POPOCATEPL: MEXICO; A
THREAT TO MEXICO CITY
“POPO” AND MEXICO CITY
RUMBLINGS OF ERUPTION OF
“POPO” ON JULY 4, 2013
Africa's most active
volcano.
NYIRANGONGO: DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
OF CONGO; A THREAT TO GOMA
ERUPTION OF NYIRANGONGO:
JANUARY 2, 2010
WARNING:
The other 1,489 active
volcanoes can also
have dangerous
eruptions anytime.
ERUPTION OF PUYEHUE IN
CHILE: FEB, 2012
ERUPTION OF CHAPARRASTIQUE
IN EL SALVADOR: DEC., 2013
RUSSIA’S VOLCANO PLOSKY
TOLBACHIK
PLOSKY TOLBACHIK SPEWS
ASH: JAN. 6, 2013
LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING
OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL
• The people who know: 1) what
hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash
plume, lateral blast, lava flow,
lahar), 2) where and when they will
happen, and 3) what they should
(and should not) do to prepare for
them will survive.
LESSON: TIMELY, REALISTIC
DISASTER SCENARIOS SAVE LIVES
• The people who have timely,
realistic, advance information that
facilitates reduction of
vulnerabilities, and hence the risks
associated with the vertical ash
plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra,
lava flows, and lahars will survive.
LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING
SAVES LIVES
• The people who have timely,
accurate, advance information that
facilitates evacuation to get our of
harm’s way of pyroclastic flows,
lava flows, and lahars will survive.
LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE
SAVES LIVES
• The timing of emergency response
operations, especially the
evacuations and the search and
rescue operations (limited to “the
golden 48 hours)” will save lives
LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL
PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES
• The local community’s capacity for
emergency health care (i,e., coping
with damaged hospitals and medical
facilities, lack of clean drinking
water, food, and medicine, and
high levels of morbidity and
mortality) is vital for survival.
LESSON: EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERED
BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES
• Buildings engineered to withstand
the risks from a vertical plume, ash,
pyroclastic flows, and tephra that
cause damage, collapse, and loss of
function, is vital for protecting
occupants from death and injury.
LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID
• The International Community
provides millions to billions of
dollars in relief to help “pick up the
pieces, ” but this strategy is not
enough by itself to ensure
earthquake disaster resilience.
•MONITORING
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
COMMUNITY
VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EM RESPONSE
•RECOSTRUCTION AND
RECOVERY
PILLARS OF VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Realistic
Building Code
Realistic Volcanic Eruption Disaster Scenarios
Timely Emergency Response (including
Evacuations, S and R, and Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Reconstruction & Recovery
THE CHALLENGE:
POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND
REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND
PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE
KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR
MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
AN UNDER-UTILIZED GLOBAL
STRATEGY
To Create Turning Points for
Volcano Disaster Resilience
 USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING
THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER
AND ACCELERATE POLICY CHANGES
MOVING TOWARDS THE MUSTHAPPEN GLOBAL STRATEGY
To Achieve Volcano Disaster
Resilience
INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS FOR REALISTIC POLICIES ON
PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, DISASTER
SCENARIOS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE,
RECONSTRUCTION, AND RECOVERY