Transcript law of the chain for resetting our shared global vision for disaster

LAW OF THE CHAIN FOR
RESETTING OUR SHARED
GLOBAL VISION FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
LAW OF THE CHAIN
LAW OF THE CHAIN
A DISASTER IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FIX THE TWO WEAK LINKS IN
EVERY COMMUNITY’S DISASTER
RESILIENCE PROGRAMME: TRANSFER
and MPLEMENTATION OF KNOWLEDGE
2010 PROVIDED MANY NEW WINDOWS OF
OPPORTUNITY
HAITI EARTHQUAKE
COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES EXPOSED
LACK OF UNDERSTANDING, TECHNOLOGY,
AND PREPAREDNESS
FAILURE TO TRANSFER
AND IMPLEMENT
GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE
AND EXPERIENCE
FLOODS IN RUSSIA , BRAZIL,
AND POLAND
CHILE EARTHQUAKE
PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WINDSTORM XYANTHIA
DROUGHT IN CARIBBEAN
DROUGHT IN CHINA
VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN
ICELAND
OIL LEAK IN GULF OF
MEXICO
MUD FLOWS IN MADEIRA
FACT: ELEMENTS OF DISASTER
RISK EXIST IN EVERY COMMUNITY
HAZARDS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
A disaster has undesirable
local, regional, and global
consequences.
REALITY 101
ALL NATIONS LOSE WHEN
KNOWLEDGE ON NATURAL DISASTERS
IS NOT TRANSFERRED
OR IMPLEMENTED
IN A TIMELY AND EFFECTIVE WAY TO
REDUCE COMMUNITY
VULNERABILITIES
THE BOTTOM LINE
KNOWLEDGE THAT DOES NOT PROMOTE
“DISASTER RESILIENCE ON THE
GROUND” SOMEWHERE DOES NOT
LEAVE A LEGACY ANYWHERE.
REALITY 101
A disaster is the result of
NOT TRANSFERRING
AND IMPLEMENTING
knowledge to reduce
vulnerability and risk
REALITY 101
• DISASTER =
KNOWLEDGE
BUT WITHOUT
TRANSFER
AND
IMPLEMENTATION
• DISASTER
RESILIENCE =
KNOWLEDGE
WITH
TRANSFER AND
IMPLEMENTATION
A DISASTER ALWAYS EXPOSES A
COMMUNITY’S WEAK LINKS
• INDIAN OCEAN • CYCLONE
TSUNAMI--2004
NARGIS—2008
• HURRICANE
• WENCHUAN,
KATRINA--2005
CHINA EARTHQUAKE--2008
• FLOODS IN
CHINA --2007
A DISASTER ALWAYS EXPOSES A
COMMUNITY’S WEAK LINKS
• HAITI
EARTHQUAKE
• CHILE
EARTHQUAKE
AND PACIFIC
TSUNAMI
• ICELAND
VOLCANIC
ERUPTION AND
ASH CLOUD
• OIL LEAK IN
GULF OF
MEXICO
INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI
DISASTER: DECEMBER 2004
Elements of the
disaster: 1) An
inadequate
tsunami warning
system, 2) An
estimated 220,000
deaths in 11
nations, and 3)
$ billions in losses.
FLOOD DISASTER IN CHINA:
JULY 2007
Elements of the
disaster: 1)
Evacuation of one
half-million people
from the rainswollen Huai River,
2) a plague of two
billion mice, and 3)
losses of $3 billion.
HURRICANE KATRINA
DISASTER:AUGUST 2005
Elements of the
disaster: 1) poor
siting and design of
the levee system,
2) flooding of 80
percent of New
Orleans, 3) 1,800
dead, and 4) losses
of $81 billion.
CYCLONE NARGIS DISASTER:
IN MYANMAR: MAY 2008
Elements of the
disaster: 1) Poor
implementation
of warning
systems, 2) Slow
receipt of International AID, 3)
an estimated
220,000 deaths.
WENCHUAN, CHINA EATHQUAKE
DISASTER: MAY 2008
Elements of the
disaster: 1) Poor
implementation
of building
codes, 2) 88,000
deaths, 3) 25
million buildings
damaged, 4) 45
million affected
HAITI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
JANUARY 2010
Elements of the
disaster: 1) poor
implementation of
building codes, 2) an
estimated 220,000
deaths, 3) $ 100 +
billion in damage,
and 4) a 10-yearlong recovery.
EYJAFJALLAJOKULL VOLCANO
ERUPTS IN ICELAND: MARCH 2010
Elements of the
disaster: 1) Lack of
prepared-ness to
deal with an ash
cloud, 2) 100,000
canceled flights in
Europe, 3) 1 billion
+ loss to aviation
industry.
THE GREAT OIL LEAK DISASTER OF
IN GULF OF MEXICO: APRIL 2010
Elements of the
disaster: 1) Lack of
technology to deal
with an 1-mile deep
oil leak adding
22,000 gallons of oil
per day, 2) pollution,
3) dead fish and
wildfire, and 4) $ 100
+ billion loss.
REALITY 101
It is much more cost-effective for a
nation to improve the transfer and
implementation of knowledge than
to try to sustain the socioeconomic
losses from recurring disasters
HAZARD & RISK
ASSESSMENTS
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DECISIONS ON ON
DISASTER RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
YOUR
COMMUNITY
ELEMENTS OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• PREPAREDNESS
• PROTECTION
• EARLY WARNING
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
THE UNREALISTIC GOAL
• NO DISASTERS!
• …UNREALISTIC
BECAUSE NATURAL
HAZARDS (E.G.,
FLOODS, SEVERE
WINDSTORMS,
EARTHQUAKES,
DROUGHTS) ARE
INEVITABLE AND
COMMUNITIES ARE
VULNERABLE.
THE REALISTIC GOAL
• DISASTER
RESILIENCE!
• …, BUT IT DEPENDS ON
SUCCESSFUL CAPACITY
BUILDING ON MULTIPLE
SCALES FOR
PREPAREDNESS,
PROTECTION, EARLY
WARNING, EMERGENCY
RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION.
DISASTER RESILIENCE
REQUIRES A “24/7” EFFORT
• A 24/7 EFFORT IS
NEEDED TO BUILD
THE CAPACITY
NEEDED TO
IMPLEMENT EVERY
ELEMENT OF
COMMINITY
DISASTER
RESILIENCE.
FACT:
MANY GLOBAL COMMUNITIES LACK CAPACITY FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE.
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
MEDITERRANEAN
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
STEP ONE: FINDING AND
ENGAGING
Finding and engaging the right
people in the community (i.e.,
those who are willing to commit
to a sustained effort to build
capacity for disaster resilience).
STEP TWO: EQUIPPING
Only if the people at risk are adequately
equipped with knowledge on the
occurrences and consequences of
natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes,
hurricanes / typhoons, and floods) and
a political mandate to become resilient
before a natural disaster occurs is
there a good chance of actually
achieving disaster resilience .
HOW TO SUCCEED
STRATEGIC GOAL: WORKING TOGETHER TO INCREASE
CAPACITY IN EVERY COMMUNITY
POLITICAL
& SOCIAL
PHYSICAL
SCIENCES
SCIENCE
ENGINEERING
SCIENCES
SUCCESS: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILINCE
STEP THREE: PARTNERNING
• Forge partnerships in the
community that involve the
best available politicians,
business leaders, scientists,
engineers, the media, medical
professionals, and educators in
a concerted long-term effort.
IMPLEMENTATION
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
GOAL:
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
COMMUNITY
CAPACITY
COMMUNITY
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
Stratec Consulting
HOW TO FAIL
NO CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE:
NO MANDATE
FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE
HIGH
RISK
EDUCATION
THAT DOES
NOT BUILD
CAPACITY
FACT: NO COMMUNITY CAN REDUCE DISASTER RISK WITHOUT
GOALS, CAPACITY, OR BY WORKING ALONE