Transcript CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT

CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER
RESILIENT
ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY
VULNERABLE, WHY NOT
Walter Hays
Global Alliance For
Disaster Reduction
QUESTION
• WHAT IS A MEGACITY AND
WHAT MEASURES WILL MAKE IT
LESS VULNERABLE TO THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
OF NATURAL HAZARDS?
MEGACITIES IN 1900
WORLD POPULATION:
1.6 BILLION
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TOKYO: 21.9 M
NEW YORK: 15.6 M
MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M
SAO PAULO: 12.5 M
SHANGHAI: 11.7
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OSAKA: 10.0 M
BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M
LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M
CALCUTA 9.0 M
BEIJING 9.0 M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2000
WORLD POPULATION:
6 BILLION
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TOKYO: 25.4 M
BOMBAY: 18.6 M
MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M
SAO PAULO: 18.0 M
NEW YORK: 16.7 M
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LAGOS: 14.1 M
CALCUTA 13.2 M
LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M
SHANGHAI: 13.0 M
BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2020
WORLD POPULATION:
10 BILLION
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BOMBAY: 28.5 M
TOKYO: 27.3 M
LAGOS: 26.5 M
DHAKA: 24.0 M
KARACHI: 21.7 M
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SAO PAULO: 21.3 M
MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M
JAKARTA: 19.4
CALCUTA 18.8 M
NEW DEHLI: 18:R M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
WHAT HISTORY TEACHES
• CITIES AND
MEGACITIES EXIST
BY GEOLOGIC,
HYDROLOGIC, AND
ATMOSPHERIC
CONSENT, WHICH
CAN BE
WITHDRAWN
WITHOUT NOTICE.
MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS
FROM …
• EARTHQUAKES
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• LANDSLIDES
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• WILDFIRES
• TSUNAMIS
• DROUGHTS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• NATURAL HAZARDS,
GENERATE POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS
WHICH CREATE RISK
TO THE BUILT
ENVIRONMENT.
• THE CHOICE: LIVE
WITH UNACCEPTABLE
RISK OR ACCEPTABLE
LEVELS OF RISK.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• UNACCEPTABLE
RISK CALLS FOR
PUBLIC POLICIES
TO REDUCE
VULNERABILITIES.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• VULNERABILITIES
REFLECT POLICY
FLAWS WITH
RESPECT TO
PREPAREDNESS,
PROTECTION,
RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• PREPAREDNESS,
PROTECTION,
RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY ARE THE
MOST EFFECTIVE
MEASURES.
• BUT, THEY ARE HARD
TO SELL TO THE
PUBLIC AND TAKE
TIME TO IMPLEMENT.
TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF
VULNERABILITIES
• SIZE
• FRAGILITY OF
EXISTING BUIDINGS/
INFRASTRUCTURE
• INADEQUATE
PROTECTION
MEASURES
• CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS AND
PRACTICES
SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT
ON TRANSPORTATION
• DAMAGE TO ONE
SPAN OF THE BAY
BRIDGE CHANGED
THE LIVES OF
MILLIONS AND
DISRUPTED MANY
BUSINESSES.
• NOONE KNOWS THE
TRUE COST.
LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON
UTILITY SYSTEMS
• DAMAGE TO A
UTILIYY CORRIDOR
CAUSEED
WIDESPREAD
OUTAGES OF POWER,
GAS, WATER, AND
WASTE CENTERS.
• OUTAGES LED TO
LOSSES IN THE
MILLIONS.
SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FIRE
QUESTION
• CAN WE MAKE
MEGACITIES
RESILIENT TO
NATURAL HAZARDS?
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NAT. HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VULNERABILITY
REDUCTON
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
MEGACITY
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PRPTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
•EDUCATIONAL SURGES