Transcript MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

MEGACITIES AND NATURAL
HAZARDS
POINT FAILURES CAN PARALYZE AN
ENTIRE CITY
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
MEGACITIES DEPEND ON
UTILITY SYSTEMS
• DAMAGE TO A
UTILITY CORRIDOR
WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD
OUTAGES OF POWER,
GAS, WATER, AND
WASTE CENTERS
LASTING HOURS TO
MONTHS WITH
LOSSES IN THE
MILLIONS.
MEGACITIES DEPEND ON
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
• DAMAGE TO ONE
SPAN OF THE BAY
BRIDGE DISRUPTED
THE LIVES OF
MILLIONS AND
DISRUPTED MANY
BUSINESSES.
FIRE CAN PARALYZE A
MEGACITY
QUESTION
• What is a MEGACITY and
what makes it vulnerable to
natural hazards?
QUESTION
• Can we reduce the vulnerabilities in a megacity’s built
environment to natural
hazards
MEGACITIES IN 1900
WORLD POPULATION:1.6 BILLION
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TOKYO: 21.9 M
NEW YORK: 15.6 M
MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M
SAO PAULO: 12.5 M
SHANGHAI: 11.7
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OSAKA: 10.0 M
BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M
LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M
CALCUTA 9.0 M
BEIJING 9.0 M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2000
WORLD POPULATION:6 BILLION
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TOKYO: 25.4 M
BOMBAY: 18.6 M
MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M
SAO PAULO: 18.0 M
NEW YORK: 16.7 M
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LAGOS: 14.1 M
CALCUTA 13.2 M
LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M
SHANGHAI: 13.0 M
BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2020
WORLD POPULATION: 10 BILLION (est)
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BOMBAY: 28.5 M
TOKYO: 27.3 M
LAGOS: 26.5 M
DHAKA: 24.0 M
KARACHI: 21.7 M
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SAO PAULO: 21.3 M
MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M
JAKARTA: 19.4
CALCUTA 18.8 M
NEW DEHLI: 18:R M
SOURCE: THE
POPULATION
INSTITUTE 2/3/01
TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
QUESTION
• Can we reduce the
vulnerabilities of
megacities to the disaster
agents of natural hazards?
WHAT HISTORY TEACHES
• CITIES AND
MEGACITIES EXIST
BY GEOLOGIC,
HYDROLOGIC, AND
ATMOSPHERIC
CONSENT, WHICH
CAN BE
WITHDRAWN
WITHOUT NOTICE.
MEGACITIES FACE THE
INEVITABLE
• EARTHQUAKES
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• LANDSLIDES
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• WILDFIRES
• TSUNAMIS
• DROUGHTS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• NATURAL HAZARDS,
GENERATE POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS
WHICH CREATE RISK
TO THE BUILT
ENVIRONMENT.
• THE CHOICE: REDUCE
UNACCEPTABLE
LEVELS OF RISK.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• UNACCEPTABLE RISK
CALLS FOR POLICIES
TO REDUCE
VULNERABILITIES.
• VULNERABILITIES
REFLECT POLICY
FLAWS INVOLVING
PLANNING, SITING,
DESIGN, AND
CONSTRUCTION.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON
MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• PROTECTION,
PREVENTION,
EARLY WARNING,
RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY, THE
MOST EFFECTIVE
MEASURES, TAKE
TIME.
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NAT. HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VULNERABILITY
REDUCTON
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
MEGACITY
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PROTECTION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION