Transcript Ingen diastitel

Megacities: Emissions, Impact on Air
Quality and Climate, and Improved
Tools for Mitigation Assessments
(MEGACITIES; MEGAPOLIS )
Brussels, 21.02.2007
Core group meeting of the Megacity proposal
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Megacities core group meeting agenda:
The meeting took place in the COST Office at 149 Avenue Louise, B-1050 Brussels,
on the 21st floor.
Febr 21, Wednesday:
10:00 - 11:00 introduction/ presentations by 3 co-coordinators: Alexander Baklanov,
Spyros Pandis, Mark Lawrence (project structure, science questions, WP budget and
consortium)
11:00 - 14:30 WP discussions/presentations by WP leaders (proposal structure: tasks
and participants in WPs, budget, etc) with a lunch break (~12:30)
14:30 - 17:00 discussion of one megacity in focus for project measurements and 5-7
megacities - for modelling studies; implementation aspects.
14:00 - 17:00 open discussion, any other questions (e.g. RS studies)
Febr 22, Thursday (Mark and Spyros leave earlier):
10:00 - 12:00 discussions with WP leaders and partners (WP tasks and partners
contributions)
12:00 - meeting stop
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Participants list:
1. Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
2. Spyros Pandis, University of Patras, Greece
3. Mark G. Lawrence, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Germany
4. Peter Builtjes, TNO-Institute of Environmental Sciences, Netherlands
5. Rainer Friedrich, University of Stuttgart, Germany
6. Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Aristotle University Thessaloníki, Greece
7. Matthias Beekmann, CNRS, France
8. Photios Barmpas, Aristotle University Thessaloníki, Greece
9. Heinke Schluenzen, Hamburg University, Germany (2nd day)
10. Ari Karppinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute (delayed)
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
The 'Megacities' official EC 7FP call:
ENV.2007.1.1.2.1. Megacities and regional hot-spots air quality and climate
Impacts of air pollution from megacities and large air-pollution’hot-spots’ in Europe
and elsewhere. Integrated research on emissions, their local impacts with special
emphasis on air quality and associated risks, and their regional to global impacts.
Assessment of mitigation options and quantification of impacts from polluted airmasses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics (physics and chemistry, hydrological
processes, long-range/hemispheric transport etc.) as well as other important
feedbacks between air quality, climate and climate change. The participation of
international cooperation partner countries is encouraged.
Funding scheme: collaborative projects (small or medium-scale focused research
projects)
Expected impact: A better quantification of air quality, mitigation options and
availability of more reliable tools for prediction of air pollution in cities. Support to
EC Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and Air Quality regulation. Better
quantification on regional and global links between air pollution, climate and climate
change necessary to underpin mitigation and other policy initiatives.
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Project aim
The main aim of the project is (i) to assess impacts of growing
megacities and large air-pollution “hot-spots” on air pollution and
feedbacks between air quality, climate and climate change on different
scales, and (ii) to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air
pollution in cities.
The work in this project will include both basic and applied research, and
will especially focus on bridging the spatial and temporal scales that
connect local emissions, air quality and weather conditions with global
atmospheric chemistry and climate.
Expected impacts: better tools for cities and better links between scales
Pollutants: specific urban aerosols, PM, NOx, O3, others.
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Main Objectives
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To develop and evaluate integrated methodologies to improve emission data from
megacities on local through global scales
To analyse urban pollution, other impact factors and physical processes from the street
level to megacities 'urban plume' (focus on megacities scale to resolve the local-scale
processes)
To assess regional to global impacts from mega city plumes, including: atmospheric
transport (local pollution buildup and regional to global) and chemical transformation
of 'megacity plumes' (gas and aerosol)
To determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to
megacity aerosols, other precursors and impact factors
To quantify impacts from polluted air-masses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics
(physics and chemistry, hydrological processes, long-range/hemispheric transport etc.)
and to assess mitigation options
To assess global megacity aerosol/pollutant forcing and their effects on global climate
To examine feedback mechanisms: effects of climate change on megacity environment
and emissions
To develop improved 'integrated' tools (a hierarchy of up- and down-scaled models
<based on existing models> ) for prediction of air pollution in cities and to validate and
demonstrate them on case studies for selected megacities
To propose assessment and mitigation options for scenarios of megacity developments:
Support for EC - TSAP, Regulation, Policy
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Scientific questions to be addressed:
• How megacities affects the air quality on regional and
global scales?
• How large is the impact of megacities on regional and
global climate?
• How will the growth of megacities affect climate change at
global and European scale?
• What is the impact of large scale dynamic processes on the
air pollution from megacities?
• What are the key feedback interactions between the air
quality-climate-climate change relevant to megacities?
• Which measurement gaps exit?
• What improvements are needed in regional-global models?
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
•
Megacities:
Urban features in focus:
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WMO, GURME
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Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
Urban pollutants emission,
transformation and transport,
Land-use drastic change due to
urbanisation,
Anthropogenic heat fluxes, urban heat
island,
Local-scale inhomogeneties, sharp
changes of roughness and heat fluxes,
Wind velocity reduce effect due to
buildings,
Redistribution of eddies due to buildings,
large => small,
Trapping of radiation in street canyons,
Effect of urban soil structure,
diffusivities heat and water vapour,
Internal urban boundary layers (IBL),
urban Mixing Height,
Effects of pollutants (aerosols) on urban
meteorology and climate,
Urban effects on clouds, precipitation
and thunderstorms.
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Main effecting links, interconnections and
processes in focus
•Mitigations
•Feedbacks
•Emissions
•Megacities
•Forcing
•Climate
•Air Quality
•UBL
•Aerosols
•Urban Features
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Identification of Problems to be Solved
To better quantify the regional and global links between air
pollution, climate and climate change and to meet necessary
underpin mitigation and other policy initiatives. The
megacities (worldwide) have an impact on the air quality
not only locally but also regionally and globally, and can
therefore also influence the climate. In Figure above a
schematic description of how the megacities, air quality and
climate interact is presented. Some separate links, shown in
Figure, are already considered and reasonably understood.
However, a full set of these interacting links with their
feedbacks is crucial to consider in order to fulfil the main
goal of the call ENV.2007.1.1.2.1; and these are still poorly
understood.
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
WP 8 – Coordination, Management and Dissemination
WP 1 - Emissions
WP 2 – Local Air Quality
and Associated Risks
WP 4 – Regional Climate Effects
(Self-Impacts of Individual Megacities)
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
WP 3 – Regional and
Global Air Quality
WP 5– Global Climate Effects
(Collective and Cross-Impacts
of Megacities)
WP 6 – Improved Integrated Tools
For Air Pollution Prediction, plus
Case Studies for Selected Megacities
WP 7 – Mitigation Options Assessment,
Policy Support
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Denmark
DMI
Germany
Mark G. Lawrence, Jos Lelieveld,
Tim Butler, Uli Poeschl
MPIC
German Weather Service (to
Germany
be merged with 4)
Barbara Fay
DWD
Hamburg University (to be
merged with 3)
Germany
Heinke Schluenzen, Michael
Schatzmann
MIHU
Germany
Rainer Friedrich, Jochen Theloke,
Thomas Pregger
USt
UK
Ranjeet Sokhi , Ye Yu, Charles
Chemel
UHCL
Sue Grimmond, Frank Kelly, Glenn
McGregor
KCL
UK
Bill Collins, Boucher, Olivier,
Adrian Broad
UKMO
Regional, Global climate +
weather forecast
Finland
Jaakko Kukkonen, Gerrit de Leeuw
FMI
Street, local, regional modeling +
measurements
Finland
Markku Kulmala, Sergej
Zilitinkevich
UH
Modeling, satellites,
measurements
2
Max Planck Institute for
Chemistry
3
4
5 University of Stuttgart
6
University of Hertfordshire
College Lane
7
King's College London (to be
UK
subcontractor to 6)
8 UK MetOffice
9
Integrated models,
Air quality + meteorology,
Climate, from local to regional
(and global)
Alexander Baklanov, Ole Bøssing
Christensen, Jens Hesselberg
Christensen
Danish Meteorological
1 Institute / Danish Climate
Center
Finnish Meteorological
Institute
10 University of Helsinki
11
TNO-Institute of
Environmental Sciences
Nederlands
Peter Builtjes, Hugo Denier van der
Gon
TNO
12
Aristotle University
Thessaloniki
Greece
Nicolas Moussiopoulos, John Doros
AUT
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
Climate models
Regional air quality modelling
Regional air quality
Emission models
Street, Local and regional air
quality
Met. Modelling
Emissions, regional air quality
Street, local, regional air quality
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Nansen Environmental and Remote
13 Sensing Center, Bergen (to be
subcontractor to 15 or 14)
Norway
Igor Esau, Ola Johannessen
NERSC
14
Norwegian Institute for Air
Research
Norway
Steinar Larssen, Bruce
Denby
NILU
15
The Norwegian Meteorological
Institute
Norway
Viel Ødegaard, Leonor
Tarrason, Øystein Hov
met.no
16
ARIANET Consulting (to be
subcontractor to 23)
Italy
Sandro Finardi
ARIANET
Italy
Filippo Giorgi, Ashraf
Zakey
ICTP
Schweiz
Alain Clappier (+Alberto
Martilli)
EPFL
France
CHIMERE team: Laurent
Menut, Matthias
Beekmann?, Paolo Laj
CNRS
Austria
Markus Amann
IIASA
Abdus Salam International Centre
for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
17
(to keep as partner because they are
resp. for regional climate modeling)
18
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology (to be merged with 24)
CNRS /LISA, Ecole Polytechnique,
19 etc ?/ (several groups to be included as
one partner CNRS)
20
International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis
Foundation for Research and
21 Technology, Hellas, University of
Patras
Greece
Spyros Pandis
FORTH
22
Institute of Tropospheric Research,
Leiptzig
Germany
Alfred Wiedensohler
IFT
23
CNR-ISAC, Institute of Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate
Italy
Sando Fuzzi, M.Ch.
Facchini
CNRISAC
24 PSI, Paul Scherrer Institute
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
Switzerland Urs Baltensberger
PSi
LES, remote sensing, China
branch
Data banks, EMEP
Policy, EMEP
Po Valley, case study, local
and street
Regional climate modelling,
Cairo case study
Urban scale Met. Modelling
Regional models, EUSAAR
connections
Policy models
Regional models, organic
aerosols, case studies
(measurements)
Case studies (China),
measurements + models
Aerosol chemistry, Po Valley
Urban measurements, Street
scale
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
WPs basic structure
• (see also the EC documents and tool from cordis web-site)
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1. Aim and objectives (no more than 3-4-5)
2. Teams involved + estimated person months
3. Basic work plan split into 3-4-5 main tasks and teams responsible
4. Main deliverables
5. Time schedule
6. Estimate of resources - months, equipment/computing, consumables,
etc...
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We need to discuss WPs and think about wider questions eg:
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- How this WP interacts with local and global/climate WP?
- How the measurements will feed into the modelling work?
- How the WP will assist in the mitigation/policy work?
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
WP leaders
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WP 1 (Builtjes and Friedrich),
New WP2 (Grimmond?, Esau)?
WP 2 (Baltensperger and _Moussiopoulos_),
WP 3 (Kukkonen and Sokhi),
WP 4 (Giorgi and _Pandis_),
WP 5 (_Collins_ and _Lawrence_),
WP 6 (?,_Baklanov_?),
WP7 (Beekmann?, Paolo Laj?),
WP 8 (?????).
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Megacities in focus
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
NOx emissions in megacities
250000
NOx Emissions (Tonne/yr)
200000
150000
100000
50000
(d
)
Ja
ka
rta
(e
)
g
Ko
n
H
on
g
Sa
nt
ia
go
(b
)
(a
)
M
on
te
rre
y
(a
)
)
ua
da
la
ja
ra
G
ic
o
C
ity
(c
(a
)
M
ex
Lo
nd
on
St
oc
kh
ol
m
(a
)
(a
)
M
ad
rid
er
da
m
(a
)
(a
)
Am
st
R
om
e
At
he
ns
(a
)
(a
)
Be
rli
n
Pa
ris
(a
)
0
Note: (a) is 1995, (b) is 1997, (c) is 1998, (d) is 1999 and (e) is 2000
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Population trends in megacities (UN2001)
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Megacities in focus
• In Europe there are formally 4(5) such defined (>5mln) cities
(London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr / Rhine-Ruhr North, Moscow, and
Istanbul)
• Extra possible mega-urban areas in Europe:
- The Netherlands urban agglomeration (Peter)
- Milano and the Po valley in Italy (Sandro)
• Megacities outside Europe:
- Delhi/Bangalore, Beijing/Shanghai, Kairo, Teheran, Singapore
- Latin-American cities: Buenos Aires, Mexico, Rio de Janeiro,
Santiago de Chile, São Paulo;
- US, Japan ????
• The global scale: effect of all megacities
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
US potential partners
2. Prof. Mario Molina
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Responsibilities / interests:
Air pollution in/from megacities (e.g. Mexico City)
<we didn’t contact yet>
3. Drs. Georg Grell and Sasha Madronich, NCAR
Responsibilities / interests:
On-line integrated WRF-Chem system with aerosol feedbacks;
MILAGRO (Mexico City campaign from earlier this year)
<Alexander, Ranjeet and Mark have contacted>
4. Professor Robert D. Bornstein
Department of Meteorology
One Washington Square
San Jose State University
San Jose, CA 95192 USA
408.924.5205 work, 5191 fax
415.567.1063 home
415.308.1587 cell phone
[email protected] work/home
Responsibilities / interests:
Urban coastal climate
Urban impact on regional climate
Concurring: global warming and local cooling in coastal
environment
Air pollution in coastal urban environment
Heat islands
<Sergej and Alexander have contacted>
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
5. Professor H.J.S. Fernando
Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering
Environmental Fluid Dynamics Program
Arizona State University
Tempe, AZ 85287-9809
USA
Phone: 480-965-2807, Fax: 480-965-8746,
[email protected]
Participate:
Vice rector of the University Prof. Jonathan Fink (urban research beyond
environmental aspects);
Professor J.C.R. Hunt (employed at AZU beginning from January 2007)
Responsibilities / interests:
Urban climate in a valley (ventilation due to slope winds), socio economical
aspects, problems of rapidly growing bid city
<Sergej has contacted>
6. Dr. Gabriel Katul
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences
Duke Univesrity
Box 90328
Durham, NC 27708-0328
USA
Tel. +1-919-613-8033, fax +1-919-684-8741
[email protected]
Responsibilities / interests:
A theoretical model and observations of turbulence in urban canopy
<Sergej has contacted>
7. Prof. Greg Carmichael
University of Iowa
<[email protected]>
Responsibilities / interests:
Cooperation with GURME project of WMO
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
Budget drafting:
Contribution from EC: 3.5 mln Euro
Total cost (~60-75% from EC): 5-6.5 mln Euro
Management/coordination, end-users and external experts,
audit - ~0.5-1 mln Euro (100% from EC)
Avarage budget per partner: 5 mln / 20 partners = 250 000
Euro (~150 000 Euro from EC, 50-75%)
Project duration: 3 years
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels
BUDGET DRAFT BY WPs
PM
(approx)
Personn
el
Expend
ables
108
450
10
460
WP 2 – Local Air Quality and Associated Risks
72
300
10
310
WP 3 – Regional and Global Air Quality
72
300
10
310
WP 4 – Regional Climate Effects: Self-Impacts of Individual Megacities
72
300
10
310
WP 5– Global Climate Effects: Collective and Cross-Impacts of Megacities
72
300
10
310
WP 6 – Case Studies and Observations for a Selected Megacity (or
Megacities)
72
300
400
700
WP 7 – Improved Integrated Tools For Air Pollution Prediction
72
300
10
310
WP 8 – Mitigation Options Assessment and Policy Support
72
300
10
310
WP 9 – Coordination, Management and Dissemination
72
300
100
400
684
2850
570
3420
All monetary values in k-Euros
WP 1 - Emissions
Total
Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute
Total
‘Megacities’ core group meeting, 21 Febr. 2007, Brussels