Transcript THE DISASTER AGENTS?

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING
DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
A FOCUS ON
MONITOTING SYSTEMS,
PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS,
WARNING SYSTEMS, AND
EVACUATION
A PART OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
PURPOSE:
Predictions and forecasts of
natural hazards communicated
effectively through warning
systems facilitate development
of city evacuation plans to
move people out of harm’s way
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NATURAL HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
FOUR PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY IENCE
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--A COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC
POLICIES ALLOW IT TO BE …
UN—PREPARED
GLOBAL GOAL:
FROM UN—PREPARED
TO
A STATE OF
PREPAREDNESS
FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL
NATURAL HAZARDS
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH
EVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT
OF HARM’S WAY
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR
SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW
BEMEFIT/COST FOR
PROTECTING PROPERTY
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
NOTE: EARTHQUAKE
PREDICTION IS NOT YET
FEASIBLE; SO EVACUATION
IS NOT AN OPTION TO GET
PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S
WAY FOR EARTHQUAKES
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES,
PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS,
AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE
A VITAL PART OF EVERY
CITY’S EVACUATION PLAN
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE
FOR FLOODS
FLOODS IN S. CALIFORNIA: A REASON FOR
AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL
OVERFLOW ITS BANKS,
DIKES, OR LEVEES?
• WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
FLOODS IN CHINA: A REASON FOR
AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL
OVERFLOW ITS BANKS,
DIKES, OR DAMS?
• WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE
FOR HURRICANES AND
TYPHOONS
HURRICANE ANDREW: A REASON FOR AN
EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHERE WILL THE HURRICANE MAKE
LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TYPHOON TALAS: A REASON FOR AN
EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHERE WILL THE TYPHOON MAKE
LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANES AND
TYPHOONS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE
FOR TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMI (JAPAN): A REASON FOR AN
EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHERE WILL THE
TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TSUNAMIS
• M 7 or larger
earthquakes
that occur on
“the Pacific
ring of fire”
can cause:
Tsunamis
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH
TSUNAMIS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE
FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN WILL THE
ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?
• HOW BIG (VEI)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
MOUNT PINATUBO, THE PHILIPPINES:
LARGE VERTICAL PLUMES AND LAHARS
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA AND
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE
FOR WILDFIRES
WILDFIRE (GREECE): A REASON FOR AN
EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN
• WHEN AND WHY WILL
THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?
• DURATION?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH
WILDFIRES
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WILDFIRES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
(DAY/NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO
EVACUATION TO PUBLIC POLICY
A disaster scenario accelerates
dialogue on the best ways to
get people out of harm’s ways,
and policies and plans for doing
it when it counts most.
EVACUATION PLANNING IS A
“24/7” EFFORT
• PREPAREDNESS
(BE READY)
• PROTECTION
(BUILD TO
WITHSTAND)
• EMER. RESPONSE
& RECOVERY
(BOUNCE BACK)
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
IS A “24/7” EFFORT
• MONITORING
(FACILITATES
EARLY WARNING,
EVACUATION, AND
INTERVENTION TO
PROTECT PEOPLE
AND PROPERTY)