The Rise of China

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Transcript The Rise of China

China’s Changing Role In Asia
by Wang Jisi,2004
The Rise of China
The pessimistic view in China:
The rise of china will be constrained by U.S. in the world
The Rise of China
The sanguine view in China:
Earlier, both international political and economic circumstances
were favorable.
Recent, domestic reform and balanced development as the
priorities to enhance China’s international stature.
China’s “soft power” for expanding Chinese influence in world
Unlike Japan and Germany before, China today is far from
being militarized.
“20-year period of strategic opportunities”
Cooperation *
The China-U.S.
Relationship *
(North Korea)
China’s growing
capabilities *
The Taiwan Issue *
The Japan Issue *
Regional Economic Cooperation
In the early 1990s, China was not enthusiastic about regional
trade arrangement.
Now, China’s WTO accession and increasing economic ties with
its neighbors will have a great gains.
Predictions: China-ASEAN free trade arrangement will rival both
the European Union and NAFTA.
The promotion of East Asian economic cooperation will be an
integral part of China’s regional strategy.
Regional Security environment
China-India relations.
International terrorism, refugees and illegal immigration.
Crime and drug trafficking across Chinese borders.
To this extent, China will continue to be a conservative or status quo
power in the region.
The North Korea Nuclear Issue
• Painful historical memories.
• Hu Jintao’s proactive posture toward the Korean nuclear issue.
• Third priorities: maintain a nuclear-free Korea.
2.the preservation of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. assist North Korea’s economic recovery.
China’s growing military capabilities
The best approaches are:
First, incresing the transparency of China’s strategic thinking,
planning and defense capabilities.
Second, strengthening regional security dialogues.
The Taiwan Issue
National goal: to achieve reunification with Taiwan.
Diplomatic failure.
To deter Taiwan from taking adventurous moves toward de jure
Two modification since 2001
First,U.S. policy toward the island is not intended to encourge or
endorse de jure independence of Taiwan.
Senond, the other is based on the reassessment that time is on the
mainland’s side in the long run.
The Japan Issue
The ongoing momentum of regional economic cooperation
featured by ASEAN+3.
The Korea nuclear issue.
The China-U.S. relationship:
A Dominant Factor.
The realtionships with the other two major players-the U.S. and
Japan are still in flux .
The Taiwan problems.
The nature of the Chinese polity constitutes a large gap with its
Asian neighbors.
The choice of value system.