Transcript China's Hukou System In the Reform Era

The Rise of China and
Its Implications
Fei-Ling Wang, Ph.D.
Professor
Sam Nunn School of International Affairs
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30332-0610, USA
404-894-1904; 404-894-1900 (fax)
[email protected]
2005-2006
Fulbright Scholar and Visiting Professor
Yonsei University, Korea
Council on Foreign Relations-Hitachi Fellow
University of Tokyo, Japan
China’s Rise
Impressive Record:
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9.6% annual growth rate since 1979; 2-3 times the LDCs and
3-4 times the OECD
More than 10% annual growth since 2003
4th largest economy; (or 2nd by PPP)
$500+ billion FDI; $860+ billion foreign currency reserve;
largest foreign purchaser of US T-bonds
Great Potential:
38-42% savings rate
760 million cheap labor (2-10% of the US average wages)
Developmental state
Poised to over take the US in 20 years(?)
National GDP Sizes:
Ranked by the CIA
GDP in 2003
World
(by PPP method)
Ranking
(in mill ion doll ars)
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USA
10,871,095
1
China
6,435,838
2
Japan
3,582,515
3
India
Germany
3,096,239
2,279,134
4
5
France
1,632,119
6
United Kingdom
1,606,853
7
Italy
1,559,321
8
Brazil
1,371,655
9
Russia
1,318,827
10
Canada
963,550
11
Mexi co
934,553
12
Spain
915,072
13
Korea, S.
858,028
14
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National Powers:
The Chinese Ranking
1990 2000 2000
Economi c Milit ary
scores
ranking
ranking
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USA
1
1
2740
1
1
Japan
2
2
1851
2
2
Canada
4
3
1608
5
7
Germany
3
4
1570
4
9
France
5
5
1525
6
6
UK
6
6
1465
7
3
China
8
7 1462
3
4
Russia
Australia
7
10
8
9
1297
1282
8
9
5
10
Italy
India
9
11
10
11
1243
945
10
11
11
8
Brazil
South Africa
12
13
12
13
919
782
12
13
13
12
Problems
Expansive growth v. intensive growth
Lack of innovation: How and why?
Taiwan issue
Income, urban-rural, & regional inequalities
250-400 million under- or unemployed
Trust, credit, and rule of law
A repressive society in the Internet age
58-74-87 K protests/riots in 03-04-05
Environmental destruction: water and Tibet
Capital flight & a broken banking system
Make it or Break it:
The Key Factors
Governance & Socio-political Stability
The CCP one-party regime
Will the economy boom forever?
What to do about the 250+million underemployed?
External Peace
The explosive Taiwan Issue
What the current world leaders will do?
Scenarios
Latin Americanization?
Another Japan? (Prior to or post WWII)?
Implications
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Great opportunities and significant benefits
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New engine of world’s economic growth
Alternative norms and institutions
Burden and cost-sharing-Public good provision
Challenges and risks
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Competition: jobs, market, energy, raw materials
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Adaptations and clashes of values and ideas
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Buying oil, selling shoes, and pirating Gucci and Prada
Westphalia v. Tian-xia
Uncertainties and instabilities - new systemic challenger?
Security Implications
Big Guns and More Missiles
At least double digit growth of military budget
Comprehensive military-industry complex
Focused development of offensive capabilities
New PLA
Professionalizing
Solid CCP control
New strategies
Immediate implications
In the Taiwan Theater
Sea lanes and territorial disputes
Exporting weapons
Chinese Foreign Policy
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Conservative & reactive nature
 Good
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neighbor and enriching neighbors
Pro status quo
 For
how long?
 Post-taoguang
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yanghui already?
Growing assertiveness and new
demands
 Panda, dragon, or wolf ?
China’s 3-P Motivation
 Preservation
 Prosperity
 Power
Three-P Incentive Structure
and Samples
Preservation
Political reform
WTO
Prosperity
Taiwan
US
Trade
PLA, UN
Power/Prestige
Scenarios of Beijing's Motivations
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Scenarios
Three Incentives
Implication
Political
preservation
Economic
prosperity
Threatened but
manageable
Top priority Increasing but
controlled
Risk-averse &
conservative
For how long?
2. Democratization
Acute threats
& challenges
Top priority, Strong
less political surge
More active
& risk-taking
Leads to
scenario 3 or 5?
3.Democratized
successf ully
No longer
a concern
No more
urgency
Strong
More assertive
& demanding
Ally of US?
4. CCP-led
world power
Not much
a concern
No more
urgency
Strong
More assertive
& demanding
Challenger to US?
5. Regime
collapsed
Failed
& chaos
Ignored &
acrificed
Desperate
Aggressive
& militant
Worst scenario?
1. Status quo
Nationalist
power pursuit
Uncertainties
China's foreign
policy
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Yong Deng & Fei-Ling Wang eds., China Rising: Power and Motivation in Chinese Foreign
Policy, 2005.
Future: Three Choices
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To Hail Beijing as a New Leader
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To Subdue the PRC: External Constraints
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To Mold and Free China: Internal Constraints
Mongolian Options:
Some tentative thoughts
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Forward to the past
Neutralization
Building alliances with other great powers
To reconfigure the region
Help to transform and constrain China peacefully
Some further readings
By Fei-Ling Wang
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Organization through Division and Exclusion: China's Hukou
System, Stanford CA: Stanford University Press. 2005.
China Rising: Power and Motivation in Chinese Foreign Policy,
co-edited with Yong Deng of US Naval Academy, Lanham, MD:
Rowman & Littlefield, 2005..
In the Eyes of the Dragon: China Views the World, co-edited with
Yong Deng of US Naval Academy Lanham,MD: Rowman &
Littlefield, 1999.