Transcript Dust Definition

Dust Definition Implementation
Gerard Mansell, Julia Lester, Jason Conder
ENVIRON International
WRAP Carbon/Dust Conference
May 24, 2006
1
Background: Dust Definition
• Visibility standard references the “natural baseline”
• How do you identify/quantify natural and anthropogenic
dust sources/emissions? What mitigations are possible?
– DEJF developed draft dust definition
2
Feasibility Assessment Approach
• Feasibility Report
– related approaches, data/methodology resource
assessment, Feasibility Assessment Protocol
• Established 3 categories
Category 2
Category 3
Emissions due to
anthropogenic
influence
Total
Dust
Emission
s
Category 1
Emissions under
healthy, natural
conditions
Pure Anthro:
Pure Natural:
Mixed:
construction,
agriculture, roadways,
etc.
Erupting volcanoes, sea
spray, etc.
Land impacted by
native and non-native
animals, dry lake
shores / beds
3
Partitioning of Category 3 Sources
•
Category 3 Partitioning, “Direct-Comparison”
Approach
- Compare Category 3 dust emissions at sites with actual or
created “natural” reference sites (on site/source basis)
• Reference areas, reference time periods
- Ecosystem health as opposed to disturbance ranges
- Modeling
•
Data information resources (Report, Appendix A)
– Web location, cost, “owner,” description, spatial extent
(location), user interface, user input, data format, spatial
resolution, data export, user requirements, information
need check-off, WRAP dust definition applicability score,
and notes
4
Feasibility Assessment Protocol
1. Identify the purpose and goals of the analysis
2. Conceptual Model and initial source rank order
3. Identify major Category 3 sources
4. Identify controls/mitigations, if desired
5. For major Category 3 sources, are existing
methods/databases available to characterize,
estimate, and/or partition the emissions?
6. If not, can the necessary methods/databases be
developed and at what cost?
 If the answers to 5 and/or 6 are yes, definition
can be implemented
5
Case Studies
• Several potential case studies identified
• 2 case studies identified through discussion with
WRAP staff and the DEJF:
– Saguaro West (SAWE) in Pima County Arizona
• CoD / CoHA: 123 dust days of soil / coarse mass
major contributors to 20% worst visibility days
– Salt Creek Wilderness in New Mexico
• CoD / CoHA
• DRI CoD Backward Trajectory Analysis
• Near Emissions Inventory
• Interaction with the New Mexico SIP Pilot Project
6
Step 1: Purpose and Goals
Item
Full-scale Study
Saguaro West Case
Study
Salt Creek Wilderness Study
Analysis area
All contributing
source areas
135 to 225 quadrant,
20-km radius
100 km radius circle
Resource
identification
All
As in full study
As in full study
Dust source
identification
Comprehensive, GIS,
long-range sources
assessed
Limited
Comprehensive for shortrange sources, GIS spatiallyresolved where available
Dust source
characterization
Identify models / data
for all significant
sources
Identify models / data for
most significant source
Identify models / data for all
significant sources
Ems Inventory
All significant sources
Most significant
All significant sources
Inv. partitioning
All significant Cat. 3
sources
Most significant with
available data
All significant Cat. 3 sources
7
Step 2: Conceptual Model
WRAP Products/Tools:
AoH, CoHA, CoD, In
and Near Class 1
Areas, Near
Emission Inventories
CM
Geographic, geological,
topographical, ecological,
climatological and land
use setting
PM and
Visibility setting
State/Local Information
Initial source ranking
Major Category 3 Sources
8
Salt Creek CM Building Blocks
9
Step 2 (cont): Initial Ranking of Sources
•
Saguaro West
– Most significant: Windblown from shrub land (Cat. 3)
– Major: Other windblown (Cat. 3), agriculture (Cat. 1)
– Unknown: Emissions and/or the natural “disturbance”
due to burrowing animals
• Salt Creek Wilderness
– Most significant: Windblown from shrub/grass lands
(Cat. 3)
– Major: Other windblown (Cat 3.); agriculture,
construction, road dust (Cat. 1)
– Other: Emissions and/or the natural “disturbance” due
to burrowing animals
10
Step 3: Major Category 3 Sources
• Saguaro West: Windblown (shrubland)
• Salt Creek (with current inventory)
– Windblown (shrubland & grasslands)
– Others: to be determined
11
Step 4: Mitigations / Control
• Identify possible mitigations and controls that
may be applied to Category 1 and specific
Category 3 sources
– Impact of controls/mitigations on Category 3
sources related to emission partitioning
• Saguaro West – Not part of case study
• Salt Creek Wilderness
– Controls/ mitigations identified through the NM
SIP Pilot Project
12
Step 5: Resource Availability for
Category 3 Sources
• For major Category 3 contributors, are
resources available to characterize, estimate,
and/or partition the emissions?
– Data and Model Resource Identification
– Dust source characterization
– Site-specific dust emission estimates
– Emission partitioning
13
Step 5: Emission Estimates
• Saguaro: Rough, based on 12x12km
estimates from windblown dust model
• Salt Creek Wilderness: Refined inventory,
based on WRAP modeling data, revised
spatial allocation, local data, Causes of Haze
(CoH) analyses (DRI), etc.
14
Step 5: Emission Estimates
WRAP modeling PM10 dust emission inventory data (includes TFs);
spatially allocated to 100-km analysis area;
reflects spatial allocation based on 1992 NLCD
2002 Planning
2018 Base
Windblown Fugitive Road Windblown Fugitive Road
County
Dust
Dust
Dust Dust
Dust
Dust
De Baca
3,690
51
22
3,690
323
30
Guadalupe
30
0
1
30
2
2
Roosevelt
1,940
787
61
1,940
1,101
81
Lincoln
1,405
8
42
1,405
296
55
Curry
18
3
0
18
3
1
Chaves
5,103
638
226
5,103
2,225
301
Lea
1,158
120
46
1,158
237
61
Otero
21
1
4
21
36
5
Eddy
849
309
64
849
753
90
Total
14,214
1,916
467
14,214
4,976
626
15
Step 5: Emission Estimates
WRAP county-level PM10 dust emission inventory data (tpy)
County
De Baca
Guadalupe
Roosevelt
Lincoln
Curry
Chaves
Lea
Otero
Eddy
Total
PM10 Dust Emissions - WRAP 2002 Planning
Paved
Unpaved
Roads
Roads
Construction Mining
Agricultural Total
19.9
8.5
0.0
54.7
44.4
127.4
156.8
105.9
34.9
55.3
69.4
422.4
66.9
154.8
56.5
54.7
3181.7
3514.6
90.6
65.9
218.9
54.7
0.0
430.0
105.6
1171.1
178.6
54.7
4070.9
5580.9
171.4
159.6
93.2
54.7
735.7
1214.5
159.4
402.9
91.4
54.7
918.5
1626.8
169.3
449.7
164.1
54.7
118.2
955.9
148.2
164.2
116.7
54.7
1001.3
1485.1
1088.1
2682.5
954.2
492.5
10140.1 15357.5
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Refined Emission Estimates
• Refine emission estimates through spatial
allocation using updated LULC data
• Incorporate local available data
• Work is on-going
• Utilize CoH analysis from DRI
17
Current LULC for spatial allocation (1992 NLCD)
18
Updated LULC for spatial allocation (2000 NALC)
19
• Spatial allocation to 100-km analysis area
Spatial Allocation of County-level Emissions
Source
Spatial Surrogate w/
Spatial Surrogate w/
Category
1992 NLCD
2000 NALC
Paved Roads
All road miles
Primary roads (??)
Unpaved Roads Rural population
Secondary roads (??)
Agricultural
Cropland
Cropland
Housing change &
Construction
population
Population (??)
Mining
Strip Mines & Quarries
Rural Area (??)
County
Population
De Baca
0.9546
Guadalupe
0.0061
Roosevelt
0.0807
Lincoln
0.1604
Curry
0.0002
Chaves
0.9920
Lea
0.0117
Otero
0.0032
Eddy
0.2873
Spatial Allocation Factors
Primary
Secondary
Rural
Roads
Roads
Cropland Land
0.7453
0.6994
0.0000
0.7564
0.0175
0.0000
0.0000
0.0133
0.4983
0.3194
0.0000
0.5279
0.6166
0.0000
0.0000
0.5356
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0053
0.9204
0.8975
1.0000
0.8757
0.1927
0.0001
0.0000
0.2377
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0158
0.1831
0.3652
1.0000
0.2650
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• Spatial allocation to 100-km analysis area
PM10 Dust emissions allocated to 100-km analysis area
using 2000 NALC-based surrogates
County
De Baca
Guadalupe
Roosevelt
Lincoln
Curry
Chaves
Lea
Otero
Eddy
Total
PM10 Dust Emissions - WRAP 2002 Planning
Paved
Unpaved
Roads
Roads
Construction Mining Agricultural Total
11.1
4.4
0.0
30.9
0.0
46.4
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
2.7
25.0
37.0
3.4
21.6
0.0
87.0
35.8
0.0
22.5
18.8
0.0
77.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
121.4
110.3
71.1
36.9
566.5
906.2
23.2
0.0
0.8
9.8
0.0
33.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.9
21.6
47.9
26.8
11.6
799.0
906.9
240.2
199.6
125.2
130.9
1365.5
2061.4
21
22
• DRI Back-trajectory Analysis
Consider dust emission
source areas based
on back-trajectories for
SACR
23
Step 5: Category 3 Partitioning
• Saguaro West: Information available to
generally identify impacted areas (e.g.
unpaved road and grazing areas) and to
identify a “natural” reference area, but no
current analysis performed
• Salt Creek Wilderness:
– Results pending
24
Dust Emissions from Burrowing Animals
• Excavate as much as
5,100 tons soil/mi2•year
• If fully entrained, may
generate as much as 6
metric tons PM10
/mi2•year (Saguaro West)
• Burrowing activity affects
vegetation cover at
landscape scales
• In certain areas, there
may be no additional
emissions even if
anthropogenic
disturbances are present
Botta’s pocket gopher
Thomomys bottae
25
CONCLUSIONS
•
Dust definition implementation feasible
– No “one-size-fits all” approach
– Wide variety of information resources available
– Key challenges
• Reconciling different emission estimates
• Partitioning Category 3 sources
– Identifying reference areas / time periods
• Quantifying impact of natural disturbances
–
•
•
Assessment Report and draft Saguaro Study available
Provides a process (and a tool – Conceptual
Model) for integrating WRAP tools/projects
during SIP development – NM SIP Pilot Project
Feedback to emissions models
26