Transcript Slide - IAOS 2014 Conference

IAOS 2014 Conference on Official Statistics
8 ~ 10 October 2014, Da Nang, Vietnam
Socio-economic & IT Changes in Korea,
and KOSTAT’s Responses
Bongho Choi([email protected])
Senior Government Officer at the Statistics Korea
Secretary for Association of National Census & Statistics Directors of America, Asia & the Pacific
Vice President of the Korean Data Analysis Society(www.kdas.or.kr)
Professional Lecturer on Prevention against Sexual Violence
1
Socio-economic Changes
occurred in Korea
Socio-economic Development in Korea
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
Per capita Value of
Exchange CPI (%)
GNI (US $, export
rate (per
nominal)
(in million 1 US $)
US $)
79.
32.8
65.0
105
175.1
271.5
13.5
255
835.2
316.7
16.0
607
5,081.0
484.0
25.3
1,660
17,504.8
659.9
28.7
2,355
30,283.1
890.2
2.5
6,303
65,015.7
712.1
8.6
11,735
125,058.0
770.9
4.5
11,865
172,267.5
1,264.5
2.3
18,508
284,418.7
1,011.6
2.8
22,170
466,383.8
1,134.8
3.0
26,205
559,648.7
1,055.4
1.3
Population
employed in
agriculture
(%)
63.0(’63)
58.5
50.4
45.7
34.0
24.9
17.9
11.8
10.6
7.9
6.6
6.1
Total
fertility
rate
6.0
5.0
4.5
3.4
2.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.1
1.2
1.2
Change in Structure of GDP in Korea
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Agri., Forestry & Fishery
29.3
16.2
8.9
4.6
2.6
Mining & Manufacturing
19.5
26.4
28.1
28.6
30.8
Construction
5.1
8.0
11.3
7.0
6.5
Electricity, Gas & Piped water
1.4
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.0
Services
44.7
47.2
49.5
57.3
58.2
Change in Employment by Industries
from Household Survey in Korea (in thousand , %)
Total
Agri., Forestry
& Fishery
Mining
&
Manufacturing
SOCㆍOther
Services
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
9,618 (100.0)
13,684
18,085
21,156
23,829 (100.0)
4,846 (50.4)
4,654
3,237
2,243
1,566 (6.6)
1,377 (14.3)
3,079
4,990
4,311
4,049 ( 17.0)
3,395 (35.3)
5,951
9,858
14,602
18,214 (76.4)
2
KOSTAT’s Responses in the Past
Early Stage of Statistical Organization in Korea
Period
Major Contents
1945 ~
1955
◦ With the establishment of modern republic in 1948,
Statistics Bureau was set up under the Public
Information Office.
◦ 1st Population Census was taken in 1949.
1958 ~
1963
◦ US Statistical Advisory Group (led by Dr. Stuart Rice)
was in Korea and made several recommendations which
were implemented.
1955 ~
1961
◦ Korea War brought about political, economic and social
chaos.
◦ Data collection was difficult or almost impossible.
◦ Statistics Bureau was transferred to Ministry of Home
Affairs.
1961
◦ Statistics Bureau was transferred to Economic Planning
Board.
1962
◦ Statistics Act was promulgated.
◦ Korean government launched 1st 5-year Economic
Development Plan.
Change of NSO’s Organization
2005.8.1~ KOSTAT (Vice Minister level)
under Ministry of Strategy & Finance
2005~
1990~
2006 : Creation of Statistical Development Institute
2007 : Creation of Survey Management Bureau
2008 : 700 persons came from Ministry of Agriculture
2009 : Merge 11 Provincial offices into 5 Regional offices
1990.12.27~2005.7.30 KOSTAT (Assistant Minister level)
under Ministry of Finance & Economy
1961~
1955~
1991 : Creation of Statistical Training Institute
1998 : 500 persons came from Ministry of Agriculture & Fishery
1961.7.22~1990.12.26
National Bureau of Statistics
under Economic Planning Board
1975 : 8 Provincial offices were newly created.
1955.2.17~1961.7.21
1945~
Statistical Bureau
under Ministry of Home Affairs
1948.8.15~1955.2.16
Statistical Bureau
under Public Information Office
Increasing Trend of Personnel at KOSTAT
No. of Divisions
At Headquarters
Head
Senior
Managers
Divisions
Total
Regular
Contract
workers
At
Regional
Offices
16 Dec. 1963
1
-
4
230
92
138
?
14 Feb. 1968
1
1
6
217
100
117
?
24 May 1971
1
1
8
261
219
42
261
14 Aug. 1975
1
3
10
264
208
56
289
1981
1
344
198
246
539
7 Apr. 1990
1
534
256
278
551
1 Aug. 2005
1
6
25
486
486
?
1,234
2013
1
12
45
876
676
200
2,500 ☜
☞ Including those interviewers (about 800) working as a contract-basis.
- On 1 Aug. 2005, the post of Deputy Commissioner was newly created.
Change of Evaluation for Staff’s Performance at KOSTAT
Past
Management system
Logic :
Input
Since 2007
Management by
Objectives and Seniority
Processes
Balanced Score
Card (BSC) system
Output
Outcome
BSC
– Vision, Mission, Core Values, Strategic Goals
– 4 Perspectives (Customer, Financial, Internal processes, Employee
Learning & Growth)
– Every staff-members are evaluated according to the above 4 perspectives.
Use of IT Technologies in Producing Statistics
Year
1990
Events affected the statistical
system
1995
1997
1999
2000
Yahoo launched its business in
Korea
Internet users reached 10 million
2002
2003
2004
2005
Internet users reached 30 million
2006
2009
I-phone was introduced in Korea
2010
Started to join Facebook.
2011
2012
Utilization of IT in Statistics
∙ OMR for 1990 Population Census was used at
headquarters
∙ OMR for 1995 Population Census was used at local
offices
∙ CAPI was introduced for monthly LFS
∙ Key entry to PC for 1995 Population Census at local
offices
∙ CASI was introduced for monthly Survey on Mining &
Manufacturing.
∙ PDA was introduced for CPS.
∙ PDA was introduced for monthly LFS
∙ Internet survey system was introduced for 2005
Population Census.
∙ Electronic diaries for monthly HIES was introduced.
∙ Internet survey rate for 2010 Population Census
recorded 47.9%.
∙ Net-book replaced PDA for CPS.
Internet users reached 40 millions ∙ ICR was introduced for 1st Economic Census.
∙ Issue on Big Data has arisen
Statistics Developed over time at KOSTAT
Total
1960s
1970s
1980s
15
12
6
Decennial
• National Capital Stock Survey
(ceased)
5-yearly
• Population & Housing,
Industry, Wholesale & Retail
Trade, Agriculture & Fisheries
• Population
Projection
(1986)
• Statistical Manpower & Budget
(1972)
Biennial
Annual
• Vital Statistics (1962)
• Mining & Manufacturing(1968)
• Agricultural Production Cost
(1962)
• Basic Agricultural Statistics
(1968)
• Fishery Catchment Survey (1970) • Wholesale &
• Construction (1974)
Retail Trade
• Internal Migration (1976)
(1988)
• Transportation (1977)
• Service
• Social Statistics Survey (1977)
Industry (1988)
• Food Grain Consumption (1977) • GRDP (1989)
Quarterly
Farm HH Parity Survey(1965)
• Livestock Survey(1976)
Monthly
• EAPS(1962)
• HIES(1962)
• Consumer Prices(1964)
• Farm HH Economy(1962)
• Fisheries HH Economy (1963)
• Manufacturing (1970)
• Construction Orders Received
(1976)
• Machinery Orders Received
(1979)
• Manufacturing Production
Capacity & Operation Ratio
• Composite
Indices (1981)
• Wholesale &
Retail Trade
Statistics Developed over time at KOSTAT
Total
1990s
After 2000 ~
12
16
5-yearly
• Population Projection for Provinces
• Time Use Survey (1999)
• Household Projection (2002)
• Economic Census (2011)
Biennial
• Statistical Demands Survey (1994)
• Response Burden Survey (1997)
• Multi-culture Family Survey (2009)
Annual
• Basic Characteristics of Establishments
(1995)
• Life Table (1994)
• Cause of Death (1999)
• Agricultural Area Survey (1999)
• Agri. & Fishery Establishments (2000)
• Fishery Cultivating Entities (2004)
• International Migration (2004)
• Enterprise Activities Survey (2006)
• Survey on Private Education Expenditures
(2007)
• Survey on Professional, Scientific &
Technical Service Industries (2008)
• National Wealth Estimation (2009)
• Household Finance & Welfare Survey (2011)
• Household Green Activities Survey (2011)
Quarterly or
Monthly
• Value of Construction Put-in-place (1998)
• Estimation Index of Equipment Investment
(1998)
• Current Activity on Service Industries (1999)
• Consumer Sentiment (ceased)
• Cyber-shopping mall survey (2000)
• E-commerce by enterprises (2001)
• Local Area Labor Force Survey (2008)
• Index on All Industry Production (2011)
Summary of Changes during 1970s
Korea’s economy kept growing and expanding.
Local statistical offices were firstly established in 8 places under the
National Bureau of Statistics.
Social Statistics Survey was firstly conducted.
Monthly surveys on mining & manufacturing, construction orders
received, machinery orders received were newly conducted.
Local agricultural statistical offices were firstly established in 80 places
under the Ministry of Agriculture.
Survey on Statistical Manpower and Budget was newly conducted.
Foreign Trade Statistics by UN’s SITC(Standard International Trade
Classification) was started.
Summary of Changes during 1980s
Besides Government’s efforts, the global economic boo, helped
Korea to achieve really great success in 1980s.
Social development plan was added to existing economic
development plan.
Annual surveys on wholesale and retail trade as well as on service
industry was newly conducted.
Composite indices were newly compiled. GRDP was newly compiled.
Vital registration data were actively utilized to produce statistics on
infant mortality, life-table, population projection.
Summary of Changes during 1990s
For the first half of 1990s, Korean economy continued a stable and
strong growth. However, thing changed quickly in 1997 with the
Asian Financial Crisis.
Head of NBOS was upgraded to the level of Assistant Minister, which
made NBOS became an independent organization.
Statistics Day was firstly designated.
First introduction of CAPI for monthly survey on labor force.
Personnel in agricultural statistics were transferred to NSO.
IT technologies started to be used.
Summary of Changes during 2000s
Economic growth stabilized and policies needed to focus on more
specific subjects (work & life balance, well-beings, economic equality).
Large-scale international statistical meetings were held(53rd ISI Session
in 2001, 3rd OECD World Forum in 2009).
Statistical Reform Plan was made and implemented (Statistics Law was
amended, system on statistical quality management and statistics-based
policy management was introduced, Statistical Development Institute
was set up)
Statistical personnel(700) from Ministry of Agriculture were transferred
to NSO.
Use of IT technologies in the production of statistics(PDA, CASI,
electronic diaries) for surveys on consumer prices, labor force and
household income & expenditure )was strengthened.
Agenda dealt with Reform Plan in 2004/05
• Conduct of a survey on the demand of statistics.
• Preparation of 5-Year Statistical Development Plan.
• To solve the issue on how to use the administrative data
for the production of new statistics and the improvement
of existing statistics.
• To find solutions on how to enhance the capacity of
regional statistical offices and to improve the relationship
between regional statistical offices and the local
governments.
• Amendment of the Statistics Law.
• Creation of a new National Statistical Committee.
• Strengthening of statistical capacity of other ministries
and local governments as well as preparation of a
redeployment plan of national statistical personnel.
Introduction of “Statistics-based Policy Management”
• Presidential Decree revised in 2007
Government agencies shall submit relevant statistics or plans
to develop them when they revise acts.
• Crucial role in evaluating policies
Planning stage
Execution Stage
Evaluation Stage
Statistics-based Policy Management
3
KOSTAT’s Responses in the Future
Ten Issues Arose Recently at Statistics Korea
1. On Data Dissemination
The Statistics Act stipulates that strict political neutrality must be
observed to protect the credibility of data, with all findings announced
without delay. However, the statistics on CPI, Industrial Production and
Employment have been provided one day earlier than the official release
time to the Blue House and the Ministry of Finance & Strategy. The other
statistics on annual and ad-hoc surveys have been provided a week
earlier. Statistics Korea is now considering to stop these practices through
amending the Statistics Law.
2. Increase of use of micro-data
Requests for micro-data with names and addresses of individuals are
increasing, especially from the private sector.
3. On Governance for Statistical Organizations
- Fixed-term for the commissioner's job is not yet set up in Korea.
- Chairmanship of the National Statistical Committee (to the P.M.)
- Change of the oversight ministry (to the P.M.)
4. Weak trust in some statistics compiled by Statistics Korea
Especially, statistics on income distribution (Gini-coefficient),
unemployment rate, consumer price indices.
5. Low Perception on Statistics
General public does not understand difficulties in the process of data
production. It is not easy to get full cooperation when we conduct
statistical surveys. General public regards statistics are free goods.
6. Compilation of SNA
The authority to compile the System of National Accounts has been given
to the Bank of Korea not Statistics Korea. Statistics Korea is currently in
charge of the Gross Regional Domestic Production.
7. Statistical Activities of Local Governments and RSOs
Statistical activities of local governments are weak. Each provincial
governments has a very few statistical personnel. Statistical activities of
Regional Statistical Offices under Statistics Korea are also found to be
weak. Their main duties are to be the field-work especially in data
capturing.
8. Existence of Different organizational culture at KOSTAT
Currently, three labor unions exist. One is for staff-members working at
the headquarters, another one is for staff-members working at the
regional offices, and the other one is for interviewers with indefinite
contract-basis. Transfers of personnel to Statistics Korea from the
Ministry of Agriculture twice (in 1998 and in 2008) have also affected
the work environment.
9. Regional Statistical Offices
- Regional Statistical Offices request the abolition of the telephonemonitoring system for quality checks.
- Regional Statistical Offices is now operated as the independent
agency-type. Director-Generals of each regional offices are appointed
on a contract basis of two to three years.
10. Performance appraisal system for staff-members
Two performance evaluation system exist.
One is the traditional system which is done simply and manually by
supervisors. The other one is the Balanced-score Card(BSC) system
which is done by the performance indicators’ (numerically).
KOSTAT’s Core Strategy
Advance National Statistics
Develop
relevant
statistics
Enhance
efficiency
Improve
user’s trust
Ensure
convenient
access
To Develop Relevant Statistics for Supporting Policies
Produce more policy-based statistics
• Produce income inequality indicators at diverse dimensions
• Compile supplementary indicators of unemployment rate
• Produce statistics of newly emerging global agenda
(quality of life, green growth, climate change…)
To Develop Relevant Statistics for Supporting Policies
Switch to centralized statistical system in data management
• To Enhance Policy responsiveness of Statistics
◦ Conduct Surveys for other ministries by KOSTAT
- By using superior infrastructure of KOSTAT
(Interviewers, IT system, etc.)
◦ Maintain decentralized system for administrative data
◦ To set up “Integrated Data Management Institute”
• Improve accuracy and confidence of official statistics
Designation of Responsible Statistical Officers
Central
Governments
International
Organizations
Ministry of Labor
Ministry of Health
Ministry of
Education
Seoul
Busan
…
Local
Governments
(16 Provinces)
Public Entities
5 Regional
Statistics Offices
…
…
Cities/Counties/
Districts (230)
49 Sub –
Regional Offices
∙ Bank of Korea
∙ Korea Labor
Institute
∙ KIHASA
∙ Various
Associations
Local
Offices
To Enhance Efficiency
More use of administrative data
• Some statistics can be replaced by administrative data.
ex) Population & Housing Census, business surveys
• The revised Statistics Act provided the legal basis to use administrative
data for producing statistics. ( 2007)
• Many issues remain to be resolved
- Conflicts between agencies, technical problems to protect privacy,
different classifications, etc.
To Enhance Efficiency
Active use of administrative data
• Revise the tax law in order to use tax data
- “Statistics Korea may use tax data to compile statistics”
(in Tax law)
• Strengthen the electronic security for confidentiality of tax data
- separate intranet from internet
- management of log files
• Various tax data to be accessed
- To set up Business register
(name, address, telephone number, economic activity, etc.)
hod
Respondent-friendly survey techniques
Households impossible
Households preferring
Households preferring
to interview in the daytime
interview surveys
Internet surveys
and households
(Rotation, In-migrating and
(One-person and
non-respondent households)
CAPI
CADI
preferring CATI
dual income households)
CASI
CATI
To Improve User’s Trust
Conduct surveys on behalf of other statistical offices
• Weak survey infrastructure at many statistical offices
• Survey on behalf of other statistics offices utilizing KOSTAT
interviewers.
Ex) OECD International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey contracted out by the
Education Ministry (2010)
To have Convenient Accessibility
Strengthening one-stop statistics service
• KOSIS : Korean Statistical Information Service
• Store 170 million data cells
• Planning to integrate all national statistics to KOSIS.
467550
(Apr. ,2008)
Number of KOSIS users (per month)
Users
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
March, 12007
2
3
May
4
5
July
6
7
Sep.
8
9
Nov.
10
11
Jan. 2008
12
13
March
14
Who Are Users?
Domestic
- Central governments
- Local governments
Abroad
- International organizations
- Foreign countries
Users (demands)
for Statistics
Businesses
- Enterprises
- Associations
- Labor unions
- Marketers
Research
- Universities
- Research institutes
- Opinion polls
General Public
- News media
- Students
- Political parties
- Citizens
In KOSIS, any people can find the requested data by himself and On-line publication
service is also available. An Example found from KOSIS – Population Pyramid
An Example found from KOSIS’s e-national indicators system
– GDP and Growth Rate
KOSTAT’s Efforts to Use Big Data
Research on big data use in official statistics and pilot production of statistics
Establish a task force responsible for big data use and train human resources
“Earlier dissemination of the Mining and Manufacturing Production Index by
using media data”
Support rapid and accurate production of the Mining and
Manufacturing Production Index
Collection
and
analysis of
Internet
data
Provision
of
visualized
analysis
function
Media data is automatically collected and used for objective editing (checking
changes in establishments and items, finding outliers) before finalizing the Index.
Easier understanding of time-series data (index and volume) by
providing visualized analysis function
KOSTAT’s Efforts for Data Visualization
Statistics → Knowledge → Policy
Better Policy for Better Life
Statistics → Knowledge → Policy → Better Life
Visualization and transformation of statistics into knowledge
 In OECD World Forums, the transformation of statistics into knowledge,
a new paradigm in knowledge-based society, continuously discussed.
Dissemination → Communication
Changes from statistical production to statistical utilization
 There was a growing need for the creation of value added by the public using
data in their daily lives, going beyond a mere dissemination of statistical data.
37
SStrengthening International Cooperation Activities (Bi-lateral)
GER(’97)
Russia
(‘95)
KAZ(’10)
China
(’93)
Uzb(’11)
Japan
(’82)
Neth.(’11)
+Eurostat(’10)
Thai(’02)
Vietnam
(’02)
Egypt
(’12)
Iran(’08)
UAE(’10)
Abu Dhabi(‘12)
Indonesia
(’11)
Thank you !
To have a good question is more important
than a good answer !