Transcript Linxiu Zhang`s Presentation - IAP - the global network of science

Turning Research Results into Policy
- addressing human capital challenges
in China
Linxiu Zhang
Professor / Deputy Director
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Presentation at IAP conference on Science for
Poverty Eradication and Sustainable Development
Rio de Janeiro, Feb.24-27, 2013
Annual GDP growth at nearly 10%
GDP in 2008 was 16 times of that in 1978 (1978=100)
1800
1600
1400
GDP
人均GDP
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
Hourly Wages in the Late 1990s
30
27.52
Hourly Wages (in USD)
24.91
23.65
25
21.76
20
13.56
15
10
5
2.63
4.09
0.5
0
China
US
Japan
China in 1990
EU
Korea Australia Mexico
Brazil
Park and Cai, 2008
Like South Korea in 1980s. But through the 1980s and 1990s, South
Korea’s wages rose rapidly …
28
27.52
20
23.65
美元/小时
24
24.91
21.76
Korea
16
1970s /Early
12
1980s
Korea
13.56
13.56
Today
8
4.09
4
2.63
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.7
0.52
0
中国
China
美国
US
日本
Japan 欧盟15国
EU
韩国
Korea
Hourly Wage, 2005
澳大利亚
Australia 墨西哥
Mexico 巴西
Brazil 斯里兰卡
Sri Lan.
Transformation
The 1970s/Early 1980s
High-productivity, service-base
Innovative-based economy
Late 1990s to Today
5
Key to development: Education
Percent of Students Going to High School: South Korea in
the 1970s/1980s
Percentage of Students in High School
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Large Cities Rural Korea
in Korea
Kuan, 2011
The Unskilled Wage in China is Rising Fast!
Manufacturing Wages 1994-2011 (USD/year)
4500
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
4231
4000
3481
3500
3000
2849
Philippines
China
2338
2500
2000
2018
Thailand
2833
1638
1500
1180
1075
1000
497
481
367
433
Indonesia
500
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
India
2002
2004
2006
2008
China now has the 6th highest unskilled wage in Asia … after: Japan /
Source: International Labor Organization LABORSTA Database
S. Korea / Taiwan
/ Hong Kong / Singapore
China’s future development
• Assuming China continues to grow: RISING DEMAND
• Size of labor force falls: FALLING SUPPLY
Rising wages in the future
Changing industrial structure
By 2025 to
2030 
$10/hour
So: China’s real challenge is coming … and
there are fundamental questions:
– Can China transform itself like, for example: South
Korea
– Can China invest enough in innovation and scientific
advancements
– If so, will China has quality labour forces or
adequate human capital to make these
transformations?
So: What are the problems with China’s
human capital … in poor rural areas ?
• ≈ 35% of school-aged
children in poor rural
areas
(> 50 million children,
ages 6 to 15)
cities
other
rural
Remember: today’s children are tomorrow workers and professionals …
The “greatest gap” in China (>10 times):
The Higher Education Gap
Percent of
students
that go to
college in
2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
70%
<5%
Large Cities Rural China
in China
Liu et al., 2009
The “most serious gap” in China:
The High School Education Gap
Percent of
students that
go to High
School in
2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
83%
40%
Large Cities Rural China
in China
Liu et al., 2010
The High School Education Gap
China in 2005
Korea in the 1970/80s
100%
83%
80%
Percent of
students 60%
that go to
High
40%
School
40%
20%
0%
Large Rural China
Cities in
China
Percentage of Students in High School
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Large
Cities in
Korea
Rural
Korea
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Drop out rate in junior high schools in
poor rural China
Drop
out
rate
14%
14%
15%
9%
15%
+ 9%
During
Grade 7
During
Grade 8
During
Grade 9
38%
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Di et al., 2011
Problems start way before middle
school: The underperformance of
students from China’s underserved
rural and migrant areas
Due to
Students
without
anemia
(61%)
Students with
anemia
(39%)
More than1/3 of kids are anemic.
REAP study (Luo et al., 2010) of 4000 students in rural Shaanxi Province
Rates of Anemia in China’s Poor Rural Areas
Total
Total
Shaanxi—2008 (Dataset 1)
Shaanxi—2009a (Dataset 2)
Gansu—2010 (Dataset 3)
Qinghai—2009 (Dataset 4)
Ningxia—2009 (Dataset 5)
Sichuan—2010 (Dataset 6)
Guizhou—2010 (Dataset 7)
33.7
39.0
31.6
31.2
51.1
25.4
24.8
33.1
Luo, R. et al. 2011
Tested more than 30,000 10-12 yr children in
Gansu/Shaanxi Provinces
nearsighted
normal
vision
 20% were nearsighted.
 1 or 2% ware eyeglasses
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Incidence of Intestinal Worms,
Guizhou Province, 2010
40.1%
with
worms
33.9%
with
worms
Without
3 to 5 year olds
Without
8 to 10 year olds
Zhang et al., 2011
What happens when we provide
these results to policy makers?
Ministry of Education:
“Why should we care? This is the Health
System’s problem”
Ministry of Health:
“We know they exist … tell us how to solve
them in a effective / cost efficient way”
A Story of persistence & policy success:
Rural Education Action Project (REAP) a
Research Organization/NGO/Government
Organization/Policy Action partnership
At Stanford University
In China
The FIRST anti-anemia intervention:
October, 2008 – June, 2009
Locations of sample
schools in Shaanxi
Province
( ) Treatment Schools
*
( ) Control Schools
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Pre-balanced at the baseline between
30 Treatment (T) Schools &
30 Control (C) Schools
45
40
35
30
25
122.3 122.1
38.7 3.98
73.1
72.3
T
C
20
15
T
C
T
C
10
5
0
Hb levels
Anemia
Rates
Test
Scores 28
The Intervention
In 30 schools:
“Vitamin / Day”
Give students one over
the counter multivitamin with iron per
day (5 mg of iron) …
from November 2008 to
May 2009
(≈4 US cents/day)
29
30
30 control schools
Zero:
no vitamins
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Impact of vitamin on students:
Hemoglobin Points
Anemia Rates (%)
Math Test Scores (std. dev.)
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After all that … 4 years of hard work and
more than 10 evaluations to test what
works and what does not work and
why?… 3 policy briefs
October 30, 2011:
China’s new nutrition program:
$2.5 billion USD / year for 10 year: put
nutrition into schools of 680 poor
Western China counties
We also tested many low cost, effective
solutions beyond reducing anemia
• Vitamin / day  0.3 yuan per day
• Deworming  1-2 yuan per year
• Eyeglasses  100 yuan per year
(< 0.10 yuan per day)
• Early Childhood Education
• Extra-curricula with Computer assisted learning
• Conditional cash transfers for junior high
students
• ……
Summary: Policy Results
• We have good experience making our voice heard
at the national level
• Through CAS channel, we have submitted a total
of 15 official policy briefs to the State Council….
We try to address the “grand challenge” problem:
What can be done to overcome the gap in human
capital between China’s:
rural, unskilled poor
&
the urban, skilled middle class?
Leaders in China needs to realize
• For China to invest and overcome today’s
human capital gap … and tomorrow’
inequality gap …the price tag is high … but
feasible
• And this is NOT only spending on the poor
and vulnerable … this is an investment into
China’s stable … sustainable growth … this
is an investment into the future of everyone
that has a future in China …
37
The optimistic view
• China can overcome it …
• If aggressively invest … it is late … but, not
too late …
• China has plenty of fiscal resources …the
key is to recognize the significance
38
Concluding…
• There are many other grand challenges that
China facing, like any other country..
–
–
–
–
Climate change
Environmental degradation
Aging population
…..
• Investing into science and technology
innovation is necessary but not sufficient,
• We need to pay equal attention to address
the missing link between research to policy 39
Thank You!
www.reapchina. org
www.ccap.org.cn
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