Transcript THE COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF
SERBIA AND EU IN FUNCTION OF POSSIBILITY USING
STRATEGY EUROPE: 2020 IN SERBIA
Srdjana Dragomirovic, PhD student, Faculty of Economics - Nis, Republic of Serbia
March 2012
SERBIA RECEIVED
THE STATUS OF
CANDIDATES FOR EU
MEMBERSHIP
THE EUROPEAN
UNION
SMART GROWTH
STRATEGY OF EUROPE: 2020
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Can Serbia implement strategy Europe: 2020
in the national economy of the country?
THE COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
OF SERBIA AND EU-27 THROUGH THE FOUR GROUPS OF
INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
 QUANTITAVELY EXPRESSED INDICATORS
 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS
 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 VALUE EXPRESSED INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
QUANTITATIVELY EXPRESSED INDICATORS OF
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
 The most important sectors of the Serbian economy are the basic manufacturing
industry(metallurgy), leather, food and chemical industries. Accordingly, Serbia
mainly exports iron, steel, nonferrous metals, grains, vegetables and fruits.
Intermediate goods ie. means of reproduction have the largest share in the
structure of exports along with capital goods and energy.
 The world trend of decrease in industrial production and the primacy of the
service sector compared to manufacturing is also typical for Serbia. Industrial
production in the Republic of Serbia in June 2012 fell by 4.0% compared to the
same period in 2011. Thus, the Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
supply sector recorded fall of 14.8%, the mining sector recorded a decline of
4.4%, and manufacturing industries decline of 1.8%, [4, p.39] Given the fall
tendency in the mining sector the most Lignite 37,563 thous. tons was produced
in 2010, and the least 108thous Hard coal. tons.
 The competitiveness of the Serbian economy is at extremely low levels,
according to the Statistical Office data in which in August 2012 the deficit
amounted to 5135.1 million, that represents an increase of 2.8% compared to the
same period last year, while the export-import ratio is 58.4%.
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE ON R&D (% OF GDP)
time
geo
EU 27
2008
2009
2010
1.92
2.01
2
target
3
Source of Data: Eurostat
Serbia can be characterized as technologically underdeveloped country
in with the percentage does not reach share of 0.5% GDP in the name
of research and development.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
EMPLOYMENT RATE BY AGE GROUP 20-64 (%)
time
2010
2011
target
EU 27
68.6
68.6
75
Serbia
47.2
45.4
geo
Source of Data: Eurostat and Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
Serbia, is characterized by a smaller percentage of employment,
with a tendency of further decrease. Employment rate of the workingage population from 15 to 64 years, has decreased from 47.2% in
2010, to 45.4% in 2011. At the same time there has been an increase
in the percentage of unemployment from 20% in 2010 to 23, 6% in
2011.
VALUE EXPRESSED INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
REAL GDP GROWTH, 2009-12 (percent)
2009
-4.6
-4.1
-6.0
-4.2
-4.3
-3.5
Europe1
Advanced European economies
Emerging European economies
European Union
Euro area
Serbia
1
Real GDP Growth
2010
2011
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.6
4.4
4.4
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.0
2.0
2012
1.8
1.3
3.4
1.4
1.1
3.0
Average weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook,2011
LOOKING AT THE STRUCTURE OF GDP IN SERBIA, THE GROWTH IN
RECENT YEARS IS BASED ON:
INCREASED IMPORTS
GROWTH IN CONSUMPTION
GROWTH IN EXTERNAL DEBT
THAT IS FOREIGN BORROWING
CONCLUSION
SERBIA
can implement the Europe 2020
strategy, only if it is adapted to its
conditions, where it is primarily thought
about inequalities, but also about the
achieved level of economic development
The membership in the European Union
is not a path towards achieving
a sustainable economy, but
to maintaining the same.
REFERENCES
[1] B. Eichengreen,The European Economy Since 1945, Princeton University Press, 2007
[2] EUROPE 2020 A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, European
commission Brussels, 2010
[3] M. Zirojević, S. Jelisavac, Evropska monetarna unija i evro, Biblid 0025-8555,54(2002)
Vol. LIII, br. 1-2, 2002, pp. 99-114
[4] Monthly statistical bulletin, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, 6/2012
[5] P. Petrović, M. Antevski , Regionalna ekonomska integracija u Evropi: efekti i otvorena
pitanja, 1 UDK: 339.13(4) Biblid 0025-8555,58(2006) Vol. LVIII, br. 1, Februar 2006, pp.
84-103
[6] Paul de Grauwe, Ekonomija monetarne unije, Beograd, 2004.
[7] R. Nallari and B. Griffith,Understanding Growth and Poverty, Theory, Policy, and Empirics,
The World Bank, 2011.
[8] Regional Economic Outlook:Europe, IMF, October 2011
[9] Statistical Yearbook, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade 2011
[10] Strategija naučnog i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije za period od 2010. do 2015,
Ministarstvo za nauku i tehnoloski razvoj
[11] Stephen Broadberry, Kevin H.O’Rourke, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern
Europe , 1870 to the Present, Cambridge University, Press 2010