Transcript Slide 1

“Building an integral
vision for Serbia’s future”
Towards a clear Economic Development
strategy in Serbia’s most dynamic sectors:
10.45
Agriculture & Food
Professor Miladin M. Ševarlić
12th Economic Summit of the Republic of Serbia
Metropol Palace, Belgrade
Monday-Tuesday, October 22-23, 2012
Where are we today?
About agribusiness
in Serbia
 High percentage in economy
(20% GDP, 30% employment, 23% export, ...)
 Extensive agriculture (... and not organic)
(<30% cattle breeding)
 Devasting and import oriented pre-farm sector
 Insufficient used favorable resources (600.000 ha)
 Non-competitiveness (SRB:D = 1:11)
 Export orientation: raw material, lower phases of
processing, ...
 Political pressures for agriculture to be social “buffer"
Restriction
 Unfavorable ownership structure
 Non-regulated ownership relations
 Low and unstable system of subventions
 Unfavorable resources of finance
 Low productivity (AL, BiH; cattle breeding?)
 Unavailability and non prepared Serbian funds to EU
Confusing statement
Agro News 1074, 18.10.2012.
Agriculgure of Serbia has
growth of 20 percent annual
Vensan Dezer
Agro News 1073, 17.10.2012.
Double agrarian
budget in 2013
Prof. dr Dejan Krnjajić
Agricultural budget
2012: 40,88
2013: 35,14
R2013/2012 = - 5,74
I2013/2012 = 85,96 (-14,04%)
Case Study - 1: Beekeeping in Serbia
84% of plant species ≈ 74% of food production
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2011
400.000 beehives
15 kg honey
6.000.000 kg honey
3€⁄kg
18.000.000 € ≈ 1.5 – 3%
• 1.200 €⁄beehives
• 480.000.000 €
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2020
200.000 ha acacia
1 МТ/ha
200.000.000 kg
4 €/kg
• 800.000.000 €
• 600.000 ha
• 2,400.000.000 €
• 1,200.000.000 €
Case Study - 2: Apple + Plum
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Apple
16,042.000 trees
12-18 kg/trees (1:1,5)
180.000 - 280.000 MT
0.35€⁄kg
2011: 256.676 MT
Plum
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40,822.000 trees
04-16 kg/trees (1:4)
200.000 - 680.000 MT
0.25 €/kg
2011: 581.874 MT
• 90.000.000 €
• 145.000.000 €
• 25 kg/tree
• 140.000.000 €
• 20 kg/tree
• 200.000.000 €
• +50.000.000 €
• +55.000.000 €
Case Study - 3:
Plum brandy
• 80,000.000 liters of brandy
• 4 euros per liter
• 320.000.000 €
• 200 x 50 x 3 x 365 = 10,950.000 liters
• 11,000.000 x 10 = 110,000.000 €
• 22,000.000 €
Agricultural potential of Serbia
4,5 >→ → 11 billion €
(ØEU-27 = 1.873€/ha GDP)
What we need
Serbian Agriculture Strategy
 Based on the knowledge, the experience of other countries
in the accession process and the EU aimed at CAP
 Environmentally and economically sustainable - without
GMOs
 The larger, more stable and fairer agricultural budget
 Improving the competitiveness and profitability
 Export-oriented final consumption
 Encourages association and cooperative
 Encourages self-employment in rural areas
 Agribusiness company's regional leaders
 Social policy to adjust the rural population
 Identify indicators for monitoring the implementation of
the Strategy