Transcript zukunftsformel - Global Marshall Plan

Jonathan Granoff
Peace Nobel Price Winner
We are the first Generation to
determinate
by our ethical decicions
whether to be the last generation
at the same time
Bayer Young Environmental Envoy 2005
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Lost Balance
Reasons/Megatrends/Perspectives
Theoretical Chance
Scenarios of the Future
Global Marshall Plan Initiative
What can you do?
Lost Balance
30.000
1,5 Billion
2,8 Billion
Humans die on starvation, daily
Humans live with less then 1,0 US$ per day
Humans live with less then 2,0 US$ per day
EU-Cow gets subsidies of 2,8 US$ per day
548.000 Billion US$ Finance-Transaktions/Year
31.500 Billion US$ World-GDP /Year
956 Billion US$ Military-Expenses/Year
300 Billion US$ Increase of Wealth of the 600 richest/Year
116 Billion US$ Interest-Payments from South to North/Year
78 Billion US$ Development-Aid from North to South/Year
60 Billion US$ Fiscal Evasion by Off-Shore-Places/Year
25 Billion US$ Profit of Exxon in 2004
Lost Balance
Income in US$/Year
One of the worldwide Poorest
37
A Poor in the „Third“ World
150
An Unemployement Benefit in Germany
5.000
An Avarage Income in Germany
20.000
A Senior Civil Servant in Germany
80.000
The Highest Ranking Politician in Germany
250.000
A Top-Manager in Germany
up to 20.000.000
A Top-Investmentbanker worldwide up to
600.000.000
The third-richest Person in 2004
18.800.000.000
World GDP in 2004 31.500 Billion US$
Years
2
10
14
20
29
12
Faktor
(growth powerd by Years)
Gates-Wealth
in Billion US$
42
1,60 (1,266 to second power)
67
10,57
444
27,16
1.141
111,86
4.700
934,50
39.250
16,94
Wealth of the
587 Hyper-Rich
in Billion US$
32.200
Megatrends
Megatrends
1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45
Years
.
today.
2050
1927
10.000 generations
.
9 – 10 Billion
6,3 Billion
2 Billion
one human life-time
Megatrends
Megatrends
1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45
Years
2. New World-Market Economy
• 1980 Reagan / Thatcher
• Washington Consensus IMF, Worldbank
• 5 Billions Humans more in World-Market
Economy
3. Revolution in Communication-Technology
4. Revolution in Transport-Technology
Post-War Situation until the 70th
The State is
dominant,
but business
is happy
Globalization has caused …
… the
(international)
private sector to
dominate
over the state
and public
sector.
Corporate Tax Rates in OECD / EU-Countries
Tax competition
leading to a
systematic
decrease of
corporate tax
rates. (OECD
figures from:
KPMG, 2004, 2)
Public enterprises‘ activity as a percentage of
GDP
Privatization
has been
predominantly
a phenomenon
affecting the
low income
countries.
(Source:
Sheshinski/LópezCalva, 1999;
estimations based
on the World
Development
Indicators)
Private Phones Costlier
Uruguay’s cellular
customers
benefited from
worldwide price
reductions, while
Argentineans did
not. The graph
shows the
differentiated
development.
(Data from ITU,
2003)
Underinvestment in Tropical Diseases
Only 1% of all
new chemical
entities are used
for therapeutic
innovations on
tropical diseases.
(Data from
Trouiller et al,
2002, 1188-90)
Neem Tree Seeds
Protest against Neem Tree Fungicides Extract
Patents
… in front of the
European
Patent Office
(EPO), Munich
Used for
centuries in India
for pest control
and cosmetics, a
fungicide made
from Neem tree
seeds was
patented in 1992
by an UScorporation but
later revoked.
(Source:
Petra C. Fleisser)
A third pillar, civil society is emerging …
... giving
hope for
a
rebalancing
of powers
between
public and
private
interests.
BOP and World Economic Output
T
O
P
B
O
P
78% of global GDP
15%
of world
population
22%
of global
GDP
85% of world
population
High income
(>9‘000 USD/Y)
Low/middle
income
Two explosive effects of Growth
In the North:
increasing more
resource intensive
lifestyle
In the South:
fast growing population
and increasing more
humans, gaining the
lifestyle of the North
Resources Intenseness 2050
4-5 Billion
5 Billion
Globalisation paves the
way for a world-wide
middle class prosperity
of five billion people
Limits to Growth - Club of Rome
World Population
Level at the time
Limits to Growth
was first published
Industrial Production
Level at the time
Limits to Growth
was first published
Year
Index of World Metal Use
Overshoot and Collapse
Pollution
Population
Industrial Output
Food
Resources
29
One
Index
of
Oversho
ot
Number of Earths Required
Global Ecological Footprint
Year
30
The role of technical advancements
The resource productivity has to increase
by factor 10 in this century
The double factor 10
• Increasing Eco-Efficiency /
Dematerialisation of the World
Economy to a factor of 10 in 50 –
100 years.
• With chronicle increasing
synchronism of the Gross National
Product (GNP) to a factor of 10 in
the same time period
The Advancement Trap
The Rebound-Effect
Increasing use of materials
despite dematerialisation
Equity-Situation today
The Future Formula
2005
2050 - 2100
80:20
320:680
100
1000
World-wide pattern of Distribution
100
2000
Equity < 12,5%
shar
e
at a per capita ratio of
16:1 between North and
South
80 von 100
Ø4
GN
P
20 von 100
Ø 0,25
1,2
North 20%
6,3 Billion People
South
80%
Change of the Distribution Ratio
1000
world-wide with simultaneous considerable
sustainable growth (per year: North 2.8% South
8%)
2050 - 2100
320
share
Equity about 50%
at a per capita ratio of 2:1
between North and South
320 von 1000
Ø 1,83
680 von 1000
GNP
1,7
Norden 5
19,4%
Ø 0,94
9 Billion People
Süden
80,6%
Which future?
15 %
Continuation of a Global Laissez-faire
Free trade and deregulation
as meta-philosophy
Consequences
• Free riding with CO2 emissions
• War for water
• Even more people dying of
starvation
• Even more displacement
15 %
Recource Dictatorship – rich against poor
Free trade and deregulation
as meta-philosophy
50 %
•Grandfather style solutions
•Equal treatment of the Un-equal/no
equal chance
•„plunderer process“ would be legalised,
•where applicable, political achievement
•Green card used as form of taking
advantage
•terror as answer / state counter
measures
•(State terror as an option)
•depredation of the civil freedom
•(„Chip in every brain“)
Eco-Social Market Economy
Unequal treatment of unequal starting positions
as a form of true equality of opportunite
35 %
• The EU enlargement processes
• Montreal Protocol
• Co-financing of adaptation of standards
• Model of the Marshall Plan after WWII
• Sustainability
• Global Contract
• Global Marshall Plan
Vision
• We are all in the same boat
• Civil Society, Business, Politics, Media,
Science, all Religions, Cultures together we may solve the enormous
challenges
• Global collective intelligence may lead
to a Global Consciousness
to reach a better world order system
Goals of a Global Marshall Plan
The Global Marshall Plan intends to implement the
UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015.
Those include:
• Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/
day
• Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children
• all children complete a full course of primary education
• Investing in reproductive healthcare
• Providing global, public goods, such as:
- Human dignity for all
- Worldwide security
MDG-Realisation under todays Conditions
MDG 2: Halving the number of people
living on less than 1 dollar/ day
in 2040
MDG5: Reducing by two thirds the
mortality rate among children
in Latinamerica in 2010
in Asia in 2030
in Africa in 2165
Appropriation Requirements
As Financial volume, an additional international
allowance of 120 Billion US$ would be needed yearly,
over the time period 2008-2015.
0,41 % Gross National Product (GNP)
Sources: UN-Zedillo Report
White Paper Minister Gordon Brown
George Soros
Altogether, this is in addition to the present
stand of approximately 980 billion US $
Raising Funds
Tobin-Tax
0,1 ‰ / 0,2 ‰
(estimated reduction of the markets by
 300/200 Trillion US$
per year )
30/40 Billion US$
IMF
WTO
Special Drawing Rights
Per year in favour of the
developing countries
30/40 Billion US$
TERRA-Tax
0,35 % / 0,5 %
30/40 Billion US$
Cerosine Tax
Implementation
Proposal of the Global Marshall Plan
Initiative:
Implement the UN-Millennium Goals through
intelligent alliance of the international regime
WTO, IMF, WB, ILO, UNEP, UNSCO
Under the patronage of the UN und with the
integration of Organisations such as:
UNDP, WIPO, …
Effective Use of Funds
New forms of appropriation of funds directed to the
grassroots level, while at the same time fighting
corruption
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Education
Microcredit
Renewable Energies
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Global Collective Intelligence
10.000 separated centers
multiplying each to 10.000 people/brains
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100 Million brains around the globe will
share the same ideal
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Change the World Order System
Bottum-up
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Enlighenment
Books
250.000 / year
Presentations
1.000 / year
Website
250.000 / year
Contributions of authors
200 / year
Flyer
500.000 / year
Media
300 / year
– TV (Talkshows, Spots), Walls, Print, Radio,…
• Audio/ Video
starting 2006
– Download, DVD, …
Global Marshall Plan Initiative Treffen
Ulm, 24.-25 Juni 2005
Top-Down
Campaign 2007
Germany may put the Global Marshal Plan on
the Agenda of EU and G8
“Balance-the-World-Campaign” similar to
“Make-Poverty-History”
Integrating and focussing activities of
of many organizations of civil societies, business, politics
of different countries
of many celebrities
Balance-the-World-Conference
Very Young Team Small Amazon
250.000 Books
create
• Awareness
• Supporters
• Partners
• Donors
• 40% of our
Financial Budget
• make a lot of work
Mahatma Gandhi
„Be the chance you want!“
What can you do?
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Support with your activity globalmarshallplan.org
Mention the Initiative in your publications, books
Make Presentations
Support the Initiative by Position Papers
Inform Organizations about us and other way
Use Keywords like “Balance”, Eco-Social MarketEconomy”,
• Create new cognitive frames
Victor Hugo
„There is nothing as strong
in this world
as an idea
whose time has come“