Transcript eea_security-in-the-eea-studies

“Security” in the
EEA forward-looking studies
Global megatrends analysis and regional security
implications of climate change, 7-8 December 2010
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 Regarding the definition of security and
environment
 EEA work

Way forward- examples
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freedom from fear
freedom from want
protection and empowerment
freedom from hazard impacts
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EEA
Security issues appear in the EEA
assessments in different forms, ie:
Water security
Energy security
Food security
Resource security
With no naming
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What are the prospects for the
environment
in the pan-European region?
what if...
PROJECTIONS
complex and dynamic
environment
uncertainties
SCENARIOS
forces of future
change
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Security as a driving force
PRELUDE scenarios - EEA:
two scenarios are triggered by
food security or energy security crises
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Evolved Society Scenario
Europe of Structure (Clustered Networks Scenario)
Europe of Innovation (Lettuce Surprise U Scen.)
Europe of Cohesion (Big Crisis Scenario)
Source: EEA, 2007b and www.eea.europa.eu/prelude.
Security as uncertainty
Security as an objective for the future
Global scenarios to 2025 - Schell
1. Low Trust Globalisation – security and efficiency
explore the three forces:
2. Open Doors
3. Flags — security and community values
• market incentives
• communities
Source: Shell, 2005.
• and regulation by the state.
Three main forces drive towards different objectives: efficiency, social cohesion, and
justice and security. The forces display elements of mutual exclusivity.
UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) scenarios
1. Markets First
2. Policy First
3. Security First
4. Sustainability First
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Environmental trends and perspectives in
the Western Balkans: future production
and consumption patterns
Forces shaping the future of
the environment in the
Western Balkans
In particular the role of
consumption and
production patterns
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SOER 2010 Global megatrends
Security is a key issue in the megatrends development in
the future:
– Intensified global competition for resources
– Decreasing stocks of natural resources
– Resources supply security
– Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
– food, water, health, ecosystem services security
Security impacts of megatrends development in the future
– From an unipolar to a multipolar world
– Increasing global divergence in population trends – populations
aging, growing, migrating
– Living in an urban world
– Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics
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SOER 2010 Synthesis
Resource overexploitation and changes in climate
affect quality of life, potentially undermining
social and political stability and sustainability of
local ecosystem services (livelihoods of people).
Combined with demographic pressures,
decreasing socio ecological resilience can add a
new dimension to the environment and security
debate, as conflict around scarcer resources is
likely to intensify and add to migration pressures.
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Way forward - Example 1
Global megatrends – links to security
Analyses from National Intelligence Council, US:
Global megatrends impacts to national security
Aging of population will pose budget challenges (decide on guns or wheel
chairs) and manpower shortages for Europe and Japan:
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Youth cohorts in emerging economies, rapid economic growth and
urbanization:
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if EU and Japan do accept large scale migrations – could lead to ethnic and
racial tensions and xenophobic policies which will influence global governance
Failure to deal with this challenges in EU an Japan will lead to slowing down of
global economy
If China and India fail to manage this, it could influence radical political
movements, internal instability, international terrorism
Increased migration, travel and trade are likely to accelerate the transfer of
infectious diseases
These impacts are not inevitable, as there are many uncertainties we
need to deal with and policy options we can choose.
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Way forward- Example 2
Analyses of pathways and archetypes
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Environment is contributor, but less than
political, economic, historic… factors
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Global megatrends analyses showed that
in the future environment will play
increasingly important role.
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Only case studies approach, no systemic
conclusions.
Further empirical studies needed
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Why critical constellations escalated into
the conflict (the role of environment)?
Analyse archetypes of these critical
constellations
Quantitative methods can contribute to
recognition of linkages between
structural components but are not
sufficient to address complex relations
which can not be modelled and can be
address only by interdisciplinary teams
Cause-effect chain
Archetypes of critical constellations
Environment
stress
Pathways
floods,droughts
lack of arable
land,
economic
decline (more
for poor than
for rich)
water,
Migrations
air pollution,
Social
fragmentation
Conflicts
Inequality
Wars
Erosion of civil
society
Interantainal
shortage of fuel
wood
Socioeconomic
context
Curtailment of
the state
Impacts to
security
Urban violence
Local communities
tensions
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Thank you
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UNEP ASEF
NATO
UNEP GEO
ENVSEC
OSCE security implications of climate change – scenarios
Global workshop
Regional workshops: EE, CA,…
EEA
Global driving forces
Scenarios
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Global Megatrends
(STEEP driving forces)
NR scarcity
Consumption
Climate change impacts - regional in wider Europe
water security
food security
energy security
resource security
Human security
(wars, international legal disputes, intercommoned tensions, exacerbated tensions..)
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