Transcript PAMSA Presentation to NERSA 1812 final

PAMSA
Presentation to NERSA - Public
Hearing in Durban at the ICC
18 January 2010
PAMSA’s Role
• To promote the interests of the industry in
various forums.
• To provide a forum for the development
and presentation of a common industry
view on issues.
• To coordinate activities common to the
industry.
Traditionally
• PAMSA’s activities are primarily in the following
areas:
• Government
• Industry promotion
• Education
• Technical
• Environment
Members
Representation
• Combined Turnover in 2009 – R 20,8 billion out
of RSA Turnover of R 21,4 billion – 97%
• Combined Production in 2009 – 5,0 mtpa out of
RSA Production 5,1 mtpa – 98%
• Combined Forex in 2009 – R 14,4 billion out of
RSA R 14,8 billion – 99%
• Sector Contribution to GDP – 0.99%
• Sector Combined Employment – 170 025,
129 244 Direct
Price Development
Electricity Escallation
100
US Electricity Cost SAc/kWh
90
SA Electricity Cost c/kWh
80
Linear (US Electricity Cost SAc/kWh)
70
c/kWh
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004
•
2005
2006
2007
Source – US Energy Information Administration
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Price Development
South African Electricity Pricing: €/MWh
€ 120.00
€ 100.00
€/MWh
€ 80.00
€ 60.00
Current European Pricing
EEX Spot (Germany/France/Swiss)
€ 40.00
€ 20.00
€ 0.00
South Africa
SA 2010
SA 2011
Future
SA 2012
Mill Pricing
Effects of Increase
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Demand per Annum - Gwh
2 887
2 892
2 930
2 973
R 902 920
R 904 484
R 915 653
R 928 471
R 1 170 402
R 1 545 051
R 2 025 716
R 265 918
R 629 398
R 1 097 245
Priced at 2009 Levels
After Tariff Increase
Effect of Increase
Quo Vadis?
• Problems
• Demand does & will continue to exceed Capacity
• DSM will reduce some of the demand but is insufficient to balance
the equation, will not provide funding for capacity increases &
‘rewards’ the savers with increased tariffs due to revenue shortfalls
• Plant is reaching the end of its Economic Life & needs replacing
• Solutions
• Decide on whether Eskom is a Parastatal or not.
• Low or zero-rate loan to be provided centrally
• Reduced return on equity rate.
• Review existing export agreements
• Thank You