Transcript Temperature Rise ( o C)

Climate Change Mitigation
What the UK is Doing
CRed the Carbon Reduction Programme
CRed
Carbon Reduction
Keith Tovey
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Факультет экологических исследований
Университета Восточной Англии
Energy Science Director,
Low Carbon Innovation Centre
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Climate Change Mitigation
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
•
the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
2
Future Global Warming Rates
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
3
Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
4
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
Temperature Rise (oC)
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
actual
predicted
1.0
0.5
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
0.0
Not a good match between 1920
and 1970
-0.5
1860
1880
1.0
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
actual
predicted
Predictions include:
Prediction:Gas
Natural
and
• Greenhouse
emissions
0.5
Anthropogenic
• Sulphates and ozone
Generally a good match
0.0
• Solar and volcanic activity
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Climate Change
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice
coverage of Arctic
Polar Region
– Nasa satellite
imagery
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Climate Change Mitigation
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
•
the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
7
International Comparisons
•
In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of
5.1 kW
•
In USA it is 10.6 kW
1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy
•
•
In Europe it is 5.7 kW
In Russia it is also 5.7 kW
•
Globally it is around 2 kW
• ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming
8
International Comparisons
Energy - GDP Relationships
40000
USA
GDP per head (US$ (95)
35000
Qatar
Japan
30000
Canada
UK
25000
France
20000
Other EU Countries
Mediterranean EU
Nordic EU
New EU
Germany
Poland
15000
Russia
10000
China
5000
India
0
0
5
10
15
kW per Head
20
25
30
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International Comparisons
Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy
Carbon Emissions per unit of Primary Energy
50
CO2 Emissions per Capita
45
Qatar
40
35
Developing
30 Countries
USA
Australia
25
Russia
20
Other EU
Germany
15
EU nordic
Canada
Japan
UK
10
EU med
5
EU new
France
0
0
5
10
15
20
Primary Energy per Capita (kW)
25
30
10
Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries
Electricity Emission Factors
• Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh
• China
~ 0.87kg/kWh
• UK
~ 0.52 kg/kWh
Hydro
17%
Nuclear
16%
Coal
19%
Gas
45%
Oil
3% Other
0.4%
Nuclear
2.3%
Oil
3%
coal
79.4
%
Hydro
14.9%
Renewables
4%
Other
Hydro
2%
1%
Nuclear
21%
Coal
37%
Gas
33%
Oil
2%
Russia
China
UK
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Climate Change Mitigation
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
•
the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
12
Energy Saving: The UK Perspective
UK has become more
efficient in using
energy to generate
wealth over past 50
years.
Generates the same
wealth with 45% of
energy as in 1950.
Improvement ~ 1.45%
per annum
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Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective
Wealth of UK
increased uniformly
with energy in 1950s
and 1960s
Major infra-structure
projects in late 1960s early 1970s
1979 - 1992
restructuring followed
by increase efficiency
1992 - increased
conservation
14
Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK
1990
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
renewables
other
1999
2005
Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation
15
Electricity Options for the Future
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
250
•
MTonnes CO2
200
150
•
•
100
50
0
1990
•
1995
2000
•Carbon Emission Factors for
Electricity Generation
• Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh
• Oil ~ 850 g/kWh
• Gas ~ 540 g/kWh
From 1990 to 1999
Substantial fall in carbon dixoide
emissions
Despite 23% increase in demand
However, once change is made
saving cannot be made again
Hence rise in recent years
2005
1990
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
renewables
other
2005
• Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh
• Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh
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Electricity Consumption (TWh)
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption
per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
17
Electricity Options for the Future
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Low Growth – consumption capped at
420 TWh by 2010
250
MTonnes CO 2
200
But 68% growth in gas demand
(compared to 2002)
150
High Growth – Business as Usual
100
Actual
50
257% increase in gas consumption
( compared to 2002)
High Growth
Low Growth
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
The Gas Scenario
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
100
90
billion cubic metres
Assumes all new non-renewable
generation is from gas.
Gas Consumption
80
Actual
70
High Growth
60
50
Low Growth
40
30
20
10
20% renewables by 2020
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
18
Electricity Options for the Future
Low Growth Scenario
Other Options
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
250
MTonnes CO 2
200
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc.
Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
150
100
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
350
High Growth Scenario
Business as Usual
Mtonnes CO2
New Nuclear is required even to
reduce back to 1990 levels
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
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Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK?
• The UK has been self sufficient in energy
• Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of
natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020
• It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain
competitive economically.
• Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon
dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming
• The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to
provide grants for individuals and industry.
• However, more could be done.
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Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market
• Government Targets
• 10.4% of total electricity by 2010
• unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7%
• 20% by 2020
60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth
commissioned early 2005.
New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004
Onshore 1.5 MW turbine
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Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market
• Renewables Obligation
– Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of
electricity from New Renewables.
– In 2006 - 2007 the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around
3% is being achieved.
• Target is increased each year
– In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at 3.324 p per kWh
(1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall.
• Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh
– This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable
Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation.
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Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)
Notifies Regulator how
much generated.
The Regulator
OFGEM
Notifies OFGEM
of compliance i.e. ROCs or pays
FINE
ROC’s issued
FINES recycled
in proportion to
ROCs held
Renewable
Generator
Sells ROCs to Trader
SUPPLIERS
Sells Electricity with or
without ROCs
Trader and
Brokers
Buys ROCs from Trader
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Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)
• £12 - 15 per MWh Recycled fines
• £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits
• £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy
• £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006)
• £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price
Less BETTA Imbalance charges
~ £2-£3 per MWh
Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e.
about twice whole sale price
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Climate Change Mitigation
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
•
the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
25
The Carbon Reduction Project
• Aims to Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change
• Started in Norwich
• Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others
• Elsewhere in World:
– USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai)
• Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation
• Promoting Awareness
• Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals
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Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice
and the domestic sector
• Understandable Language
A mobile phone charger left on
------
Each person in UK emits
9 tonnes of CO2 per year
~ 5 hot air balloons
up to 25 kg CO2 a year
Standby on television > 60 kg per year
Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank)
Russia
10.5 tonnes
~ 6 balloons
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of a balloon)
A tumble dryer uses four times as much
energy as the equivalent washing machine
- use the dryer sparingly
Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the
emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide.
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in the Community
Community Engagement - Reepham
CO2 by proportion
Other
household
energy 28%
Flying
11%
Car
21%
Heating/ hot
water 40%
Total emitted by residents of Reepham
13288 tonnes of CO2
= 7382 hot air balloons of CO2
Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition
at the University
3% Radiation Losses
11%
61% Flue
Flue Losses
Losses
Exhaust
Heat
Exchanger
36%
86%
GAS
efficient
Localised generation
makes use of waste heat.
Reduces conversion
losses significantly
Engine
Engine heat Exchanger
Generator
36%
Electricity
50% Heat
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at the University
Conversion efficiency improvements
Before installation
1997/98
MWh
electricity
gas
oil
19895
35148
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Emission factor
kg/kWh
0.46
0.186
0.277
Carbon dioxide
Tonnes
9152
6538
9
Total
15699
After installation
Electricity
Heat
1999/
Total
CHP export import boilers CHP
2000
site generatio
n
MWh 20437 15630
977 5783
14510 28263
Emission kg/kWh
-0.46 0.46
0.186 0.186
factor
CO2
Tonnes
-449 2660
2699
5257
oil
total
923
0.277
256 10422
This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide
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at the University
Conversion efficiency improvements
Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA
Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively
More electricity could be generated in summer
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at the University
A 1 MW Adsorption
chiller uses waste
heat to provide
chilling
1 MW 吸附冷却器
The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO2
reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated
吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统
每一个可减少排放700吨CO2
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at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO2
ZICER a very low energy building
• Designed to emit less than 50% of CO2 compared to conventional
building
• Good Management has reduced emissions even further to less than
25% of normal
• Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building
• Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation
• Plans to install biomass CHP
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and the Business Sector
Packaging
Cumulative CO2 savings
1400.0
£1,400,000
Cumulative Cost Savings
1200.0
1000.0
£1,200,000
£1,000,000
x 1200 saving
800.0
£800,000
600.0
£600,000
400.0
£400,000
200.0
£200,000
£-
Ja
n04
Ja
n03
0.0
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and the Transport Sector
Biodiesel Trials –
Banham Poultry
Action
CO2 Cumulative
saving
saving
Using 50% Biofuels
35%
35%
Advanced Driver Training
15%
45%
Better Route Planning
10%
50%
More efficient vehicles
15%
58%
4
3.5
Small things add
up! A saving of
58% is possible
km/ltr
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Driver 1
0.5
Driver 2
0
02/Jun
22/Jun
12/Jul
01/Aug 21/Aug
10/Sep
30/Sep
35
Making a Pledge
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and a vision for the future in China
An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and
theme park
Biogas Building with
support area beneath hill
沼气区和位于人造山下的
支持区域
Biomass Building with
storage area beneath hill
Municipal Building
with support below
mound
市政废物区和人造
山下的支持区域
Energy River –
Greenhouse of the future
生物质能区和位于人造山
下的储存区域
能源之河-未来温室
Visitor Centre &
Solar Research
访客中心和太阳
能研究中心
Main Entrance
主入口
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And Finally
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may
end up where you are heading."
If we do not change direction then we will end up where we
are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change
Combating Climate Change requires
•
•
•
•
Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation
Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future
Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively
Supporting the aims of the
Programme
VISIT the
WEB Site www.cred-uk.org
This presentation will be displayed on above WEB Site
>> follow Academic Links
Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови
[email protected]
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