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The Critical Path Energy System Decarbonization Stephen Stretton Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) http://www.4cmr.org Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Society http://www.zerocarbonnow.org 2nd June 2009 Contents Energy System Decarbonization • • • • • • • • Why? Terminology Carbon Rough Numbers for UK (Physics) Land Cost Rough Numbers for UK (Economics) The Critical Path 2 of 15 Why? 3 of 15 Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly Energy Demand (GW) 45,000 40,000 Reference Scenario 35,000 Fast Economic Growth - A1T 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Notes • All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*. • 1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year • 1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant * In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental Pollution Sources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050 World Energy Consumption By Fuel 5 of 15 World Electricity By Fuel Type 6 of 15 Why? 7 of 15 Carbon: Terminology Carbon Emissions Per Person Per Year (tonnes CO2eq) High Carbon ~10 Lower Carbon 4 Low Carbon 2 Ultra-low Carbon 1 Zero Carbon 0 Negative Carbon <0 *Imports of embodied energy not included 8 of 15 Technology: Terminology Technology LCA gCO2eq/kwh High Carbon Coal ~1000 Lower Carbon Gas ~400 Low Carbon CCS ~150 Ultra-low Carbon Renewables & Nuclear? ~5 to ~50 Zero Carbon (Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs) ~0 Negative Carbon Reforestation Biomass with CCS Air capture <0 9 of 15 Carbon: All Electricity Technologies Source: Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology 10 of 15 ‘LowCarbon’ Tech. CSD 11 of 15 Physics Rough Numbers Total Per Person Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr Energy Consumption 300GW 5kW Electricity Consumption ~45GW 1kW 12 of 15 Land See www.withouthotair.com Energy Source Density MWavg/km2 Biomass ~0.5 Wind ~2-3 CSP ~15 13 of 15 Do Everything… to Save the Planet! 14 of 15 Unit Costs p per kWh Levelized Costs pence per kWh 8.0 Waste & Decommissioning Carbon Cost Fuel Cost O&M Costs Investment Costs 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Coal (PC) Gas Nuclear £2bn/GW Nuclear £3bn/GW Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Coal CCS 17 of 15 Economics Numbers Total Per Person GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr Public Spending £500billion/yr £8,000/yr Market Value of Houses etc £7trillion £100,000 National Debt £700billion £12,000 Other Liabilities Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks ~£500billion? £70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn £9,000 18 of 15 Fiscal Reform 1. Tax ‘bads’ 2. Remove tax on ‘goods’ 3. Tax ‘rent’ • Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and a ‘rent’ • So “change VAT to CAT” 19 of 15 Investment Cost & Tax Revenue • UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy use. 1GW costs ~£2bn. • £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP – UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year – Cost of Trident £40bn total • £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO2) would – – – – – – Add £50 to a barrel of oil 4p/kWh on gas 10p/kWh on coal 23p/litre on petrol Raise £60bn/yr initially £1000 citizens income or replace VAT 20 of 15 Discussion Points • How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor & coordinate internationally? • How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP? • Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another? Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies or ‘within’ technologies • If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate change then cost anything at all? • If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology? • Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power being easily integrated? • Market Incentives (19th Century Railways) or State Intervention (20th Century Wars) or Both? 21 of 15 Carbonomics meets Freakonomics… Total Per Person Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr Energy Consumption 300GW 5kW Electricity Consumption ~50GW 1kW Land Area ? ? GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr Public Spending £500billion/yr Market Value of Houses etc £7trillion £100,000 National Debt £700billion £12,000 Other Liabilities Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks ~£500billion? £70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn £9,000 22 of 15 Conclusions: The Critical Path 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Public Understanding and Proposed Policy Skills and Capacity Building Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’ Start Energy Efficiency Rollout Build Energy Infrastructure Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’ Strategy transfer around the world Switch Transportation Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries Reforest the world Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction 23 of 15 Thanks for your attention! Contact me: Stephen Stretton [email protected] Links: http://www.4cmr.org http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.zerocarbonnow.org 24 of 15