Transcript J.M, Morabito, CTO, Bell Labs

•Bell Telephone Laboratory, ca. 1955
A Systems Perspective for Managing Commercial
Portfolios of Research and Technology for the
Solar Industry
J.M. Morabito - Sr. Director, Bell Labs Fellow, Chief
Technology Office (CTO)
February 2012
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Presentation Objectives
• Present a framework, proven in other high-technology
industries, for assessing the opportunities, required
resources, and complex, interrelated bottlenecks
facing the solar industry and its role in building a
Global Knowledge Society.
• Demonstrate how this framework can be applied to
maximize solar industry value creation and its
contribution to Sustainable Development.
- Sustainable development is in itself a “killer
application,” and
- A major driver of the innovation necessary to
achieve sustainability and a Global Knowledge
Society
- Sustainability will require limits on consumption
but not Knowledge and a new focus on human
well being and purpose as indicators of growth
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Solar Industry Structural Evolution
• Industrial strategy is about structural evolution and market positioning to
secure a sustainable competitive advantage.
- Successful strategy for the U.S. Solar Industry, will be determined by actions
of multiple factors, economic conditions, policies and programs.
- Anticipating/envisioning the Solar Industry’s likely evolution and supporting
actions can secure a sustainable competitive advantage.
• Ultimately, the Solar Industry will dwarf the Information, Communications
Digital Technologies (ICT) industry, but the Solar Industry can benefit and
learn from these industries’ characteristics:
- Supporting structures for long-term growth, sustained profitability, &
collective response to environmental, regulatory and other challenges
- Global supply chains linked by industry-wide technology roadmaps, industry
& environmental standards, manufacturing diagnostics, & other collective
dependencies that accelerate technology transfer, reduce cost, & facilitate
innovation.
• Need to explore, in collaboration with all stakeholders, how best to nurture
and develop a supportive and collaborative Solar Industry.
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Value Migration
1800 to 2050 will be remembered as a period of intense technological expansion that
fundamentally increased humankind’s ability to extract and harness energy.
Economy
Economic
Drivers
Infrastructure
Economic
Indicators
Environmental
Protection
Agrarian
(before 1800)
Land and Crops
Dirt roads and
couriers on horseback
Commodity prices
No
Industrial
Revolution
(1800-1900)
Cheap steel, coal,
textiles
Railroads, shipping,
telegraph,
steam engine
Coal and pig iron
production, cotton
consumption, railroad
operating income
No
Mass
Production
(1900-1980)
Cheap energy,
especially oil
Highways, airports,
telephones,
broadcasting,
electric power grid
Retail sales, auto
sales, housing starts,
industrial production,
capacity utilization
Command and
control
development of
strict federal
regulations
Technology/
Information
(1980- 2010)
Ever-cheaper
semiconductors
and photonics,
R&D programs,
rapid technology
change, knowledge/
software, direct
electronic access
Satellites, fiber
optics, networks,
wireless,
distributed power
Worldwide web/the
internet
Book to bill ratio,
computer sales,
deflation in high
tech prices, power
value, high tech, trade
balance, employment
in knowledge intensive
Industries
Pollution prevention,
industrial ecology,
international
standards (ISO),
renewable energy
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Value Migration
1800 to 2050 will be remembered as a period of intense technological expansion that
fundamentally increased humankind’s ability to extract and harness energy.
Economy
Sustainable
Energy/
Information
Intensity Era
(post 2010)
Convergence
of Electric
Power and
Information
Technology,
i.e., the Digital
Economy of
the Global
Knowledge
Society
Economic
Drivers
Transition from
EXTRACTIONbased technology to
SUSTAINABLE
technology.
Costs;
Capital;
Competition/
Cooperation; China;
Consumers;
Climate Carrying
Capacity;
Convergence
Infrastructure
Economic
Indicators
Computer-Mediated
(Smart) Advanced
Communication
Networks.
Global Electrification
Electronically linked
devices such as
sensors, activators,
processors, cameras,
etc. that communicate
interactively with
minimum human
intervention over
Networks.
Employment in clean
energy technologies
Global population
stabilization
Efficient systems for
utility grids, traffic
management, food
distribution, water
conservation, and
health care
Smart Grid, i.e., the
Energy Internet.
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Environmental
Protection
Sustainability
Air and water
quality
Biodiversity
Forestation
Carbon Tax
Eco-incentives
Renewable
Portfolio
Standards &
Fuel Efficiency
Standards (i.e.,
CAFE)
Transnational
Agreements
Features of the Sustainable Energy/Information Intensity
New Economy and Digital Technology of the Global
Knowledge Society
New Economy
• It’s global
• It’s networked
• It’s based on information
• It decentralizes power
• It rewards openness
• It’s specialized, i.e., mass customization
Information, Communications, Digital Technologies (ICT) Portfolio
• Processors
• Advanced wireless and optical communication links
• Sensors
• Actuators
• Renewable Energy/Advanced Storage Technologies
• New materials, for example, nanotechnologies, carbon nanotube, graphene, room
temperature superconductivity, etc.
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Population & Economic Growth
The technological advances of this era have enabled modern economies and the
human population to grow rapidly.
World Population
World Industrial Production
6
Total Industrial production
5
4
200
3
2
industrial
production/capita
1
100
0
BC400
BC200
AD1
200
400
600
800
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
1975
1993
2000
World Population (Billions)
300
Index (1963 = 100)
Year
1930
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1950
1970
1990
Environmental Impact
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an annual average 1.5% growth in CO2
emission levels (based on projected Kaya factors) through 2035, representing a 49% increase in
2008 levels.
Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the
Consumption of Energy (Million Metric Tons)
33000
380
Parts per million by volume
31000
29000
360
27000
Actual atmospheric
measurements
340
25000
23000
21000
320
19000
300
Source: www.eia.gov
17000
Sources: L. Machta; T. A. Boden
15000
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
1980
1985
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Computational Learning Curve
The Global Knowledge Society
Source: R. Kurzweil, “The Singularity is Near”
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Effect of Electrification on Birth Rate and Income
• About one quarter of the human race lives today without access (Inclusion Gap) to modern
energy services, Information and Communications Digital Technologies (ICT).
• This energy and ICT Inclusion Gap tends to be greatest in those regions where population is
growing most rapidly and would offer the greatest benefits.
Electrification and Birth Rate
10
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Effect of Electrification on Birth Rate and Income
Electrification and Per Capita Income
Source: gapminder.org, Effect of Electrification on Birth Rate and Income
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The Sustainability Challenge to the Global Knowledge Society
Improving access to electricity and Information, Communications Digital Technologies
(ICT) must play a central role in managing sustainable growth because:
• Electricity allows for diversity in primary energy supply, yet is an intrinsically clean energy
carrier.
• It is generated at 60/50 Hz., but can be converted to any frequency in the spectrum:
infrared, ultraviolet, and microwave.
• Electric services and ICT enable the modern technological innovation essential to human
opportunity.
• Application of ICT will enable carbon emission reduction five times the size of the sectors
own carbon footprint (Source: Smart 2020 Report), i.e., Decarbonization.
• Application of ICT would replace goods and services with virtual equivalence and also
provide technology to enable energy efficiency in key opportunity areas – travel/transport,
buildings, electric grids and industry systems, i.e., Dematerialization.
• Sustainability will require limits on consumption and a new focus on human well being and
purpose as indicators of growth.
• Sustainability is defined as living in harmony with each other and our planet by
experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
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The Kaya Identity
C  E Y 
C           P
E Y  P
Where:
C= CO2 emissions [metric tons]
E= Total Energy consumption [BTU]
Y= Economic activity [$]
P= Population [persons]
An d:
C/E= CO2 Intensity of Energy [Metric tons/BTU]
E/Y= Energy Intensity [BTU/$]
Y/P= Economic Intensity = Per Capita GDP
[$/person]
• First described by Y. Kaya in a paper submitted to the IPCC Energy &
Industry Subgroup, Paris, 1990.
• Numerical example: 2008 World Data
(Source: US Energy Information Administration, www.EIA.gov)
 

MetricTons  
103BTU
   9773 GDP Dollar (US, 2005, PPP)   (6731  106 ) persons

C  59.8
  7.7



GDP Dollar (US, 2005, PPP)  
person

109 BTU  


 C  30.3  109 MetricTons  30.2  109 MetricTons (Table A10, IEO 2011)
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Global Environmental Dilemma: Projected (2008-2035) CO2
Emission Levels and Associated Kaya Factors (World)
Change in
CO2
Emissions
=
Change in
CO2
Intensity
+
Change in
Energy
Intensity
+
Change in Per
Capita GDP
+
Change in
Population
+1.5%
=
-0.2%
+
-1.8%
+
+2.6%
+
+0.9%
• The US Energy Information Agency (www.eia.gov) projects an ~1.5% average annual percent
increase in world CO2 emissions based on the above projected average annual percent
changes for the 4 Kaya factors, through 2035.
• Projection: 49% increase in 2008 world CO2 emission levels by 2035.
• Most significant driver of growth in CO2 emissions is economic output per capita (Y/P).
- Governments generally pursue policies that increase Y/P.
• Population growth (P) is projected to increase everywhere except Japan & Russia.
• Energy Intensity (E/Y) is generally indicative of energy efficiency.
• CO2 Intensity (C/E) is indicative of regional fuel source mix (renewables).
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Opportunity
for
Technology
"Enabling Effect" of the ICT Industry: Projected Reductions in
World Emissions (2008-2035) by ICT Enabled Innovations
•
7.8 GtCO2e of ICT-enabled abatements are possible out of the total BAU emissions in
2020 (51.9 GtCO2e)
•
The SMART opportunities including dematerialisation were analysed in depth
The Climate Group Report: “Smart 2020: Enabling the Low Carbon Economy in the Information Age”, page 30, 2008
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"Enabling Effect" of the ICT Industry: Projected Reductions in
World Emissions (2008-2035) by ICT Enabled Innovations
Projected Impact of ICT Benefit on Kaya CO2 Intensity of the Economy Factor, (C/Y)
8.0%
Baseline/Current
EIA Projection
5.000000E-01
4.000000E-01
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.000000E-01
1.0%
0.0%
2.000000E-01
-1.0%
-2.0%
1.000000E-01
0.000000E+00
1990
6.0%
5.0%
Most Optimistic
Projection of ICT
Benefit
Smart 2020 (The Climate Group, 2008)
7.0%
-3.0%
Percent Annual Change of (C/Y)
kton (Metric) of CO2 per million US dollars (2005)
of GDP
6.000000E-01
Baseline, (EIA,2011)
% Change, Smart 2020
% Change, Baseline
Notes:
1. WWF data extrapolated post 2030
2. Smart 2020 data extrapolated post 2020
-4.0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
-5.0%
2040
• The projected annual average percent change (reduction) in the revised C/Y Kaya factor (through
2035) is computed to be ~-3.5% for the most optimistic ICT benefit (i.e., Smart 2020 Report).
• Using an equivalent 3-factor form of the differential Kaya relation and the current EIA projections
(2008-2035) for annual average Per Capita Economic Activity (Y/P) growth (+2.6%) and
Population (P) growth (+0.9%), yields a revised prediction of CO2 emission growth through
2035...
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Predicted Annual Average Growth (2008-2035) in World CO2
Emissions Including Beneficial "Enabling Effect" of ICT
Change in CO2
Emissions
=
Change
in CO2
Intensity
Change in
Energy
Intensity
+
Change in
Per Capita
GDP
+
Change in
Population
Change in CO2
Emissions
=
Change in CO2 Intensity
of Economy
+
Change in
Per Capita
GDP
+
Change in
Population
~0%
=
-3.5%
+
+2.6%
+
+0.9%
+
4-factor Kaya
Identity
Equivalent
3-factor Kaya
Identity
Opportunity for Technology
• Assuming the most optimistic predicted benefits due to the “enabling effect” of the ICT
industry is realized, the differential form of the Kaya identity indicates essentially no (~0%)
growth or increase in world CO2 emissions (relative to 2008 levels) through 2035.
• This no growth/increase result is in contrast to the current EIA projection of a 49%
growth/increase in world CO2 emission levels by 2035 (relative to 2008).
17
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The Role of Renewables in the ICT “Enabling Effect”
• Maximizing benefits and speed of market adoption of “Dematerialization &
Smart Solutions”, enabled by the ICT industry, should be a focus of global
technology development & innovation to mitigate CO2 emission levels.
• ICT is central to Energy Internet/Smart Grid that:
• Enable higher renewable energy market penetration (developed countries)
• Build demand for distributed generation based on ICT applications –
telemedicine, entertainment, education, e-banking, …. (developing world)
• All scenarios predicting significant beneficial ICT “enabling effects” assume a
10X-50X increase in solar/PV electrical generating by 2035.
• Realizing the full potential of the ICT “enabling effect” depends, in part, on a
rapidly accelerated development of the solar/PV industry.
• Need to explore, in collaboration with all stakeholders, how best to nurture and
develop supportive & collaborative Solar Industry.
• Decisions made today will impact the efficiency, sustainability, & profitability of
a Global Solar Industry over the next 10, 20, 50 years — as well as determine
which countries will be its leaders, e.g. China, Japan, USA, Germany, Spain….
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A Tool to Understand, Integrate and Evaluate
Think of the portfolio of project activities at the system level as an
interconnected set of functions that reinforce each other. Examine and
understand the linkages and interactions between elements that comprise
the entirety of the Solar Industry development system.
• Systems thinking shows how events that are separated in distance and
time can interact and how the rules of the system drive system behavior.
• Small catalytic events, especially ones that change the rules, can cause
large changes in complex systems.
A goal of Systems Thinking is identifying “leverage” -- seeing
where actions and changes lead to sustainable improvement.
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Systems Thinking (Senge Diagram) Representation of the
Compliance Activity and its effect on Alcatel-Lucent Value Growth
New Products
delay
ALU
Value
Growth
Shareholder Value
References:
The Fifth Discipline – Senge
Clockspeed – Fine
Theory of Constraints – Goldratt
Technology Integration – Lansiti
The Innovator’s Solution –
Christensen
Six Degrees - Watts
Gov’t &
customer
requirements
Value creation by management of
centralized Global Compliance
assets and achievement of bestin-class value creates sustainable
superior shareholder value.
delay
ALU
Supply Line
Design
Compliance
Activity
Competitive
Advantage
Product
Development
Interval
Compliance
Process
Innovation
Operational
Efficiency
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Investment
Strategy
delay
Senge Diagram —
Representation of System-Focused Solar Industry Development
delay
delay
National and
International
Policy
Market
Supply-Chain
Transformation Sustainable
Development
Global Solar Solar Industry
Supply-Chain
Industry Value Consortium
Creation
Energy
Internet
Innovation
delay
National Labs
Industry &
Universities
“Smart Grid”
Infrastructure
Development
delay
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21
Key Takeaways
The world has not yet reached an equilibrium point in terms of population, economic
growth, or environmental impact that can be called “Sustainable”, i.e., The balancing of
human activity with the earth’s Carrying Capacity and living in harmony with each other and
our planet by experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
We have the paradox of a unified global economy but divided global society which pose the
single greatest threat to the planet because it makes difficult the cooperation needed to
address the remaining challenges.
The developed world has reached a critical point at which its future economic,
environmental, and social health depends upon increasing the rest of the world’s
access to clean, cost-effective energy, Information and Communications Digital
Technologies (ICT).
Sustainability is defined as living in harmony with each other and our planet by
experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
Sustainable development is in itself a “killer application” and a major driver of
the transition to the sustainable energy/information intensity economic era and
the stabilization of GHG emissions.
Electrification is the foundation for a global sustainable development strategy.
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Senge Diagram —
Representation of System-Focused Solar Industry Development
delay
delay
National and
International
Market
Policy
Supply-Chain
Transformation Sustainable
Development
Solar Industry
Global Solar
Supply-Chain Energy
Industry Value
Consortium Internet
Creation
Innovation
delay
National Labs
Industry &
Universities
“Smart Grid”
Infrastructure
Development
delay
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Technology Life Cycle Factors, Another View
Future
Emerging
High
$1,785/W, 1955
Wide-Application
2008
Wide Application?
Legacy
Availability
Value
Competition based
on Product
Innovation
Competition based
on Value-Chain (Supply Chain)
Innovation
Cost
Risk
Low
1990
Early Emerging Phase
Time
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Supply Chains
• PV is being pulled into supply chain competition
- Players, particularly in Asia, know supply chain and manufacturing
competition well and see it as a competitive advantage
- Can manufacturing investments adapt quickly and cheaply to innovations
still in the pipeline, particularly in optics – AR coatings, light trapping, and
concentrators? Is the transition premature?
• Competition increasingly about cost, volume, scale
• Addresses PV as bulk commodity – cells and modules at lowest
cost based on combinations of performance and life
• Facilitates high value applications, but does not create them
• Absolutely necessary, but not sufficient, for PV to become a major
energy source
25
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Energy Internet
• Smart Grid is Key, but Energy Internet Goes Beyond Electricity
• Development Will Benefit from Network Effects:
- Each additional participant increases value to all participants
- First-to-market with compelling applications for utilities, consumers,
businesses has advantage in setting standards and expectations
• Will Be Different Where There is No Grid or Weak Grid
- Opportunity to leapfrog past centralized systems to distributed systems
- Closely tied to suitability for powering high value end-use applications
- PV has potential to ride network effects of applications it can support, just
as RAM and ICs in general ride network effects of Internet, cell phone
applications, and expansion of computing power
- Every new connection to an antique grid is a lost opportunity
• In Developed World Sunk Costs and Current Infrastructure Create
Different Challenges
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Smart Grid and Network Effects: Some Possibilities
• PV will remain interesting where and if it can participate in network
effects, based on its attributes alone or in combination with other
technologies.
• Most of the network benefits are indirect for PV, but the more
central PV is to the package, the greater the potential.
- Flexible, adaptive grids removing the 20% penetration barrier, where
network participation makes more intermittent resources possible.
- Virtual utilities of dispersed generation and storage tied together with
software and communications.
- Disrupting centralized models, serving the unserved in developing
countries with more than electricity
- tele-medicine, tele-banking, tele-commerce, tele-education, tele-government.
- more responsive to bandwidth extension married to electricity than extension of
raw power
- Virtual environmental performance, delivering and accounting for clean
energy on a real time basis to increase its value and availability.
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Sustainability – The “Killer Application” for PV and
Other Renewables…. Or Not
• Ultimately sustainability is the rationale for PV and other renewable energy – otherwise
fossil fuels could power the world economy, even with billions of new people, for many
decades.
• There is a physical aspect to sustainability. There is a political aspect to sustainability.
If the two do not connect, effectively, sustainability will only be a weak or non-existent
leverage point for PV and other renewable energy.
• Sustainability does imply limits to consumption, but not limits to growth. There are no
growth limits on Knowledge.
• Unlike other “killer applications” sustainability depends on people acting as a community
to choose what is best for the future, rather than acting alone to choose what is easiest
for themselves.
• Innovation is the best option for advancing sustainability.
- People who denied the decline in whales for whale oil in the 19th century and continued
to invest in whaling ships went bankrupt.
- People who developed petroleum as a substitute and then found new uses for it beyond
making lamp oil became billionaires.
- People who despaired of finding more whales to light their lamps ended up buying
kerosene from the new petroleum barons.
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•
This century’s most important lesson will be the value of Humility, Humanity, and Harmony
in creating Global Knowledge Societies. Global Knowledge Societies live in Harmony with
each other and our planet by experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
•
We express Humility, Humanity, and Harmony by respecting people (Tolerance) who are
different from us and by respecting the environment which we so critically depend upon.
•
The more we gain insight into the mysterious forces, cosmic and atomic, that are the
universe, the more reason we have to be Humble and see there will always be things
beyond our comprehension. The more we harness the huge power of these forces, the
more Humility becomes an imperative; now that our ability to destroy ourselves is greater
than our ability to understand ourselves.
“Humility is nothing more
than a man seeing himself
as he truly is…….
Any man who can see himself
as he truly is……..
must surely be Humble indeed.”
The Cloud of Unknowing, and
Joseph Morabito, 2011
29
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African Proverb
If you want to go fast, go alone…
But if you want to go far, go together!
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Conclusions
•
Global access to reliable, affordable electricity is essential to insuring sustainable economic growth,
protecting environmental assets and improving global health and prosperity
•
Global electrification will require a combination of innovative new policies, finance mechanisms,
infrastructure technology, in addition to ICT.
•
Technology innovation can radically increase zero-carbon electricity generation technologies such as
Solar, reduce energy intensity, minimize carbon intensity, while enhancing the quality of life and insuring
sustainable economic development.
•
Solar needs more resource investment upstream during the concept and exploration phases to
introduce system-level considerations as early as possible. This can reduce the product development
interval and facilitate technology transfer.
•
Solar Industry Drivers should be considered in the context of Systems Thinking --- Solar Industry
Supply-Chain Consortium, Energy Internet, Sustainable Development
•
Electricity from renewable energy combined with ICT in grid operation and new services to consumers,
can stabilize CO2 emissions and form the infrastructure for the transition to a globally sustainable
energy system
•
Today, we mainly define progress by new developments in technology and economic growth rather than
by the broader notion of advancing human well being and “Human Purpose.” The highest leverage will
come from strategies that inherently do both. This integration has the potential to expand technology
and human development as two aspects of the same process. This integration offers Hope for the
creation of a Global Knowledge Society.
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J.M Morabito
Senior Director, Bell Labs Fellow
Chief Technology Office (CTO)
www.alcatel-lucent.com
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REFERENCE
MATERIAL & DATA
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PV Learning Curve and Market Penetration Barrier
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