Transcript Mark Doms, Chief Economist, Economic and Statistics

Two Approaches to Measuring
“Green”
Mark Doms
Chief Economist
Department of Commerce
Association of Public Data Users, September 19, 2010
Two Approaches: Qualitative and Quantitative
• Qualitative: “Measuring the Green Economy”
• Quantitative: “U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions
and Intensities Over Time: A Detailed
Accounting for Industries, Government and
Households”
Measuring the Green Economy
From the 2007 Economic Census product list:
– Compile list of green products and services
• Conserve energy and other natural resources
– Promote ecological conservation
– Reduce energy (fossil fuels) consumption
• Reduce pollution
– Provide clean energy
– Prevent, treat, reduce, control or measure environmental damage to air, water and soil
– Provide remediation, abatement, removal, transportation, or storage of waste and
contaminants also considered to reduce pollution
– Calculate the total shipments and receipts for the green
products and services
– Compare the share of shipments and receipts to corresponding
industry and employment level to estimate the number of green
jobs in that industry
Measuring the Green Economy
•Categorizing Green Products and Services codes
–Narrow v. Broad
Green Product or Service Activity
Narrow
Category
Broad
Category
X
X
Pollution Control: This includes products or services that prevent, treat, remediate, or control
environmental damage to air, water and soil. The remediation, abatement, removal, transportation, or
storage of waste and other contaminants can also be found in this category.
– nonhazardous and hazardous waste collection, disposal, remediation and engineering services*
– waste transportation
X
– water treatment and engineering services
X
X
– muffler/exhaust repair
X
X
– organic foods
X
X
– phosphate-free laundry detergent
X
X
– air and water filters and purification equipment
X
X
– nuclear radiation detection and monitoring equipment
X
X
Results: Green Jobs
• $371 to $516 billion in the private business economy (1% to
2%)
• 1.8m to 2.4m jobs
Figure 2
Share of Green ProductDistribution
and Service
Employment
of Green
Jobs by Industry, 2007
Across Industry Sectors, 2007
76.9
Share (%)
76.7
10.8
10.1
12.3
12.8
0.2
0.2
Narrow
Services
Broad
Manufacturing
Construction
Agriculture
Green Manufacturing
• Between 2002 and 2007, the share of green
shipments and green jobs in manufacturing
remained fairly constant, ranging between 0.9%
and 1.3%. Total manufacturing jobs fell over this
period as did jobs in green manufacturing.
• The value of shipments per worker in green
manufacturing was about equal to the value of
shipments per worker in non-green industries.
• Green jobs are likely to pay about the same or a bit
more than other jobs in the manufacturing sector.
Quantitative: Carbon Dioxide Intensity
• Industry Detail
– Energy related carbon emissions and carbon intensity by
detailed industry over time
– Relative to other studies: greater industry/economy
coverage, industry detail, and time series
• Household sector
• Government sector (Federal, state and local)
– Direct and indirect effects (input-output)
– Shared with CBO for their tax/policy analysis
• Broad Trends
– Based on the industry detail
– Examples
The Macro View
• Energy-related CO2 emissions continue • Overall emissions intensity continues to fall.
to rise.
Mmt of CO2
Mmt CO2/$billion GDP, 07$
6,000
0.540
5,950
0.520
5,900
0.500
5,850
5,800
0.480
5,750
0.460
5,700
0.440
5,650
5,600
0.420
5,550
Note: Left axis does not start at zero.
Note: “Y” axis does not start at zero.
0.400
5,500
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Emissions by Major Sector
CO2 Levels, Mmt
2,000
1998
2002
2006
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Agriculture,
Manufacturing
Forestry, Mining
and Construction
Transportation
Other Services
Government
Households
Changes in Emission Intensity
CO2 Intensity Change, AAG (%)
2.0
1998-2002
2002-2006
1998-2006
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Agriculture,
Forestry,
Fisheries,
Mining &
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation
Other Services
Government
Households
Emissions and Trade
• We can estimate carbon emissions related to
domestic production, imports, and exports (using
some assumptions).
Emissions (Mmt) From
Domestic
Production Imports Exports Consumption
2006
6,056.7
437.2
291.6
6,202.3
1998
5,728.7
370.3
272.0
5,827.0